An oil rig extracts crude on July 21, 2008 in Taft, California. A new report by Verisk Maplecroft says instability in key oil producing countries is on the rise. David McNew / Getty
An oil rig extracts crude on July 21, 2008 in Taft, California. A new report by Verisk Maplecroft says instability in key oil producing countries is on the rise. David McNew / Getty

Rising geopolitical tensions in Middle East and Asia ‘key risk to oil prices in 2018’



Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Asia could have a major impact on oil prices in 2018, according to a new study.

Oil markets have been well supported recently, thanks to production curbs by Opec since the beginning of last year, as well as robust demand growth.

The weakness in the dollar has also supported oil prices, as it makes oil and other greenback-denominated commodities cheaper for countries using other currencies at home. Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts the price of Brent to average $64 a barrel this year, while Goldman Sachs forecasts it will rise to $75 a barrel in three months and average $75 in the next six to twelve months.

But today's report by risk analysis company Verisk Maplecroft points to a potential escalation in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, as well as the stand-off on the Korean Peninsula, as two major "geopolitical flashpoints" with the potential of impacting oil markets this year.

According to Verisk Maplecroft's Interstate Tensions Forecasting Model, outright war in either region is unlikely. It puts the likelihood for a direct militarised dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran at 26%, but it expects a continuation of proxy conflicts in Syria and Yemen.

"Conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran isn't our base case, but the assertive stance adopted by both sides has increased the risk of a direct confrontation – either as a result of miscalculation or overreaction," Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Mena analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, told The National. "Geopolitical tensions are rife across the region, and the Middle East's political risk premium looks set to increase this year."

The risk is higher on the Korean Peninsula. According to the report, the probability of some form of military incident or show of force between the US and North Korea has increased from 36% to 56% since the start of 2017.

A slide into war is not in the interests of any of these countries, but the report, entitled Political Risk Outlook: Oil & Gas, highlights the chances for tensions to escalate. In the worst-case scenario, war between Saudi Arabia and Iran would hit oil supply and cause a spike in prices, while conflict on the Korean Peninsula would have serious negative consequences for the global oil and liquefied natural gas trade.

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An analysis of data from the Government Stability Index also reveals that the stability of many oil producing countries is likely to worsen by 2021. These include Egypt, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kenya and Uganda.

The report describes the overall global trend as negative, with the producer countries expected to be less stable in 2021 significantly outnumbering those with an improving risk environment. They also represent a large, albeit declining, share of capex spend.

Low prices are seen as a contributing factor, at least outside the Middle East, while geopolitical shifts and a rollback of democratic institutions will play a role in the decline in stability for some countries.

“We don’t see increasing instability necessarily ending in coups or significant political upheaval, but a less predictable above-ground-risk environment is likely to emerge,” says Verisk Maplecroft’s head of financial risk, James Lockhart-Smith.

“Arbitrary decision-making, possible measures to buy off key stakeholders or an inability to pass regulatory reforms will be the main risks to projects in these countries as their governments seek to stabilise and maintain their influence.”

The first instalment of the report, released on Wednesday, uses predictive data and analyst forecasts to assess the global risk environment for oil and gas companies and investors.

It evaluates geopolitical hotspots and the probability of military incidents or shows of force, and the likely impact of country-level shifts in the political risk environment for oil and gas companies and capex investment.

If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
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Sinopharm vaccine explained

The Sinopharm vaccine was created using techniques that have been around for decades. 

“This is an inactivated vaccine. Simply what it means is that the virus is taken, cultured and inactivated," said Dr Nawal Al Kaabi, chair of the UAE's National Covid-19 Clinical Management Committee.

"What is left is a skeleton of the virus so it looks like a virus, but it is not live."

This is then injected into the body.

"The body will recognise it and form antibodies but because it is inactive, we will need more than one dose. The body will not develop immunity with one dose," she said.

"You have to be exposed more than one time to what we call the antigen."

The vaccine should offer protection for at least months, but no one knows how long beyond that.

Dr Al Kaabi said early vaccine volunteers in China were given shots last spring and still have antibodies today.

“Since it is inactivated, it will not last forever," she said.

Company%20Profile
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In numbers: China in Dubai

The number of Chinese people living in Dubai: An estimated 200,000

Number of Chinese people in International City: Almost 50,000

Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2018/19: 120,000

Daily visitors to Dragon Mart in 2010: 20,000

Percentage increase in visitors in eight years: 500 per cent

Tree of Hell

Starring: Raed Zeno, Hadi Awada, Dr Mohammad Abdalla

Director: Raed Zeno

Rating: 4/5

Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Citadel: Honey Bunny first episode

Directors: Raj & DK

Stars: Varun Dhawan, Samantha Ruth Prabhu, Kashvi Majmundar, Kay Kay Menon

Rating: 4/5

Company%20profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Fasset%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2019%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Mohammad%20Raafi%20Hossain%2C%20Daniel%20Ahmed%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESector%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFinTech%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInitial%20investment%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%242.45%20million%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ECurrent%20number%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2086%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Pre-series%20B%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Investcorp%2C%20Liberty%20City%20Ventures%2C%20Fatima%20Gobi%20Ventures%2C%20Primal%20Capital%2C%20Wealthwell%20Ventures%2C%20FHS%20Capital%2C%20VN2%20Capital%2C%20local%20family%20offices%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Eyasses squad

Charlie Preston (captain) – goal shooter/ goalkeeper (Dubai College)

Arushi Holt (vice-captain) – wing defence / centre (Jumeriah English Speaking School)  

Olivia Petricola (vice-captain) – centre / wing attack (Dubai English Speaking College)

Isabel Affley – goalkeeper / goal defence (Dubai English Speaking College)

Jemma Eley – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)

Alana Farrell-Morton – centre / wing / defence / wing attack (Nord Anglia International School)

Molly Fuller – goal attack / wing attack (Dubai College)

Caitlin Gowdy – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai English Speaking College)

Noorulain Hussain – goal defence / wing defence (Dubai College)

Zahra Hussain-Gillani – goal defence / goalkeeper (British School Al Khubairat)

Claire Janssen – goal shooter / goal attack (Jumeriah English Speaking School)         

Eliza Petricola – wing attack / centre (Dubai English Speaking College)

UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

COMPANY%20PROFILE
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What went into the film

25 visual effects (VFX) studios

2,150 VFX shots in a film with 2,500 shots

1,000 VFX artists

3,000 technicians

10 Concept artists, 25 3D designers

New sound technology, named 4D SRL

 

AWARDS
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