Some energy trends are set by factors that grind forward as slowly, invisibly and inexorably as a drill-bit. Only a major global conflict, climate shift or technological or social upheaval looks capable of deflecting them. Last week’s World Oil Outlook from Opec, one of the industry’s most influential reports, offers reasonable optimism for the big oil producers in the coming years, but cannot dispel the long-term concerns.
At the most basic level, global energy use continues to be dictated by a combination of geology, demographics, macroeconomics and logistics, all of which are immutable except on longer time-scales. Opec’s report noted that Asian markets will continue to grow in their energy use for the foreseeable future, with a growing proportion of oil produced being used for transport and petrochemicals. Fossil fuels' share of the overall energy mix will continue to be large, but will begin to shrink, with the Middle East’s dominant role in petroleum production being sustained.
Within this context, it is possible to see a tolerable future for major oil exporters, in particular the Opec states. The future of Opec earnings is determined by three factors: the change in world oil demand, how much of this is supplied by the Opec states, and the price. Opec’s report a slow rise in all three.
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What is striking is that this is about as good as it gets for Opec, particularly in the longer term. Short-term disruptions or a surge in demand, leading to a spike in prices, are always possible. But it is getting harder to foresee the rapid rise in prices and demand witnessed in the early 2000s. A scenario of faster economic growth over the whole period results in oil demand that even by 2040 is just 2.7 million bpd higher than the report’s mid-case.
Conversely, the Opec’s study sees alternative-fuelled vehicles – mostly electric – shaving just 4.9 million barrels per day off total road transport demand of 45.9 million barrels per day by 2040. It is not difficult to imagine – as environmentalists and even many mainstream forecasters do – that electric cars could take off much faster than Opec is forecasting.
The outlook for Opec’s market share is less rosy than for overall oil demand. The group’s total output, set to pick up a little to 2020, then stays essentially flat to 2023-2026, depending on the strength of non-Opec producers. In the most pessimistic case, when non-Opec output grows strongly, Opec would not get back to its 2017 production level until 2032 – a lost decade and a half. Compared to last year’s report, this year’s survey dramatically boosts forecasted US shale oil output up to 2022, by another 2.5 million bpd.
This eventual rise in the “call on Opec” is driven by the report’s assumption that US unconventional oil production will go into decline from 2025 onwards. Output from Russia barely grows to 2022 and then shrinks again, with only Canada, Brazil and Kazakhstan leading long-term gains. This relies on no other region emulating the American oil revolution over the next two decades.
The third component, oil price, has since the Second World War averaged $41.58 per barrel in today’s money; in the era of producer power, from 1973 onwards, it has averaged $57.67. The target price suggested by Opec’s current quota arrangement, currently around $60, might seem modest, but is actually above historic levels.
Opec’s report is itself coy on oil prices, perhaps wisely in view of other forecasters’ repeated egregious misses in both directions. Directionally though, it foresees a long-term price rise, itself a bold call in view of technology improvements and stagnating demand.
It is hard to see what could go much more right for Opec; demand or prices could certainly be somewhat higher, but not by a lot over the long term. It is far easier however to see what could go wrong: most obviously, the rise of non-oil technologies such as electric vehicles, spurred either by strong climate policies or simple technical and economic advances and consumer preference.
For understandable political reasons within the organisation, the report does not go into the division of Opec’s share between its members, or how their strategies might diverge. If the organisation’s crude output is flat around 34 million barrels per day, that gives little room for members who wish to expand: notably Iraq and Iran, and also the UAE and Kuwait. Iraq is the only country, inside or outside Opec, with the large, low-cost resources and the plan to match the Saudis in magnitude of flexible output. The Iraqis do not have the investment climate to achieve that eminence, or the strategy to use it – for now.
The tensions would be more acute if prices are not rising, making production growth the only route to expanded revenues. Members who seem doomed to falling long-term oil output due to limited reserves, notably Algeria and Qatar, will lose influence in Opec, although Doha’s gas will cushion its crude decline. Then wildcards such as Venezuela and Libya may see anything from collapse to strong growth, depending on internal politics and security.
In such a world, will the Saudi-led inclination towards moderate prices endure? And how will the Kingdom react if others within the organisation seek to gain market share and revenues while its own remain flat? The leading oil states should plan ahead for the unsettling implications of their latest research.
Robin M. Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
More Iraq election coverage:
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The flights
Flydubai flies to Podgorica or nearby Tivat via Sarajevo from Dh2,155 return including taxes. Turkish Airlines flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Podgorica via Istanbul; alternatively, fly with Flydubai from Dubai to Belgrade and take a short flight with Montenegro Air to Podgorica. Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Podgorica via Belgrade. Flights cost from about Dh3,000 return including taxes. There are buses from Podgorica to Plav.
The tour
While you can apply for a permit for the route yourself, it’s best to travel with an agency that will arrange it for you. These include Zbulo in Albania (www.zbulo.org) or Zalaz in Montenegro (www.zalaz.me).
Bookshops: A Reader's History by Jorge Carrión (translated from the Spanish by Peter Bush),
Biblioasis
if you go
The flights
Air Astana flies direct from Dubai to Almaty from Dh2,440 per person return, and to Astana (via Almaty) from Dh2,930 return, both including taxes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Ritz-Carlton Almaty cost from Dh1,944 per night including taxes; and in Astana the new Ritz-Carlton Astana (www.marriott) costs from Dh1,325; alternatively, the new St Regis Astana costs from Dh1,458 per night including taxes.
When to visit
March-May and September-November
Visas
Citizens of many countries, including the UAE do not need a visa to enter Kazakhstan for up to 30 days. Contact the nearest Kazakhstan embassy or consulate.
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
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%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20S%20Frederick%20Starr%3Cbr%3EPublisher%3A%20Oxford%20University%20Press%3Cbr%3EPages%3A%20290%3Cbr%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Specs
Engine: 3.0L twin-turbo V6
Gearbox: 10-speed automatic
Power: 405hp at 5,500rpm
Torque: 562Nm at 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.2L/100km
Price: From Dh292,845 (Reserve); from Dh320,145 (Presidential)
On sale: Now
Vaccine Progress in the Middle East
The biog
Job: Fitness entrepreneur, body-builder and trainer
Favourite superhero: Batman
Favourite quote: We must become the change we want to see, by Mahatma Gandhi.
Favourite car: Lamborghini
Global institutions: BlackRock and KKR
US-based BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager, with $5.98 trillion of assets under management as of the end of last year. The New York firm run by Larry Fink provides investment management services to institutional clients and retail investors including governments, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, banks and charitable foundations around the world, through a variety of investment vehicles.
KKR & Co, or Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, is a global private equity and investment firm with around $195 billion of assets as of the end of last year. The New York-based firm, founded by Henry Kravis and George Roberts, invests in multiple alternative asset classes through direct or fund-to-fund investments with a particular focus on infrastructure, technology, healthcare, real estate and energy.
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Almnssa
Started: August 2020
Founder: Areej Selmi
Based: Gaza
Sectors: Internet, e-commerce
Investments: Grants/private funding
COMPANY PROFILE
Initial investment: Undisclosed
Investment stage: Series A
Investors: Core42
Current number of staff: 47
Our legal consultant
Name: Dr Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
Company%20Profile
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TECH%20SPECS%3A%20APPLE%20WATCH%20SERIES%208
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The%20specs%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EEngine%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2.0-litre%204cyl%20turbo%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPower%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E261hp%20at%205%2C500rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETorque%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E400Nm%20at%201%2C750-4%2C000rpm%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ETransmission%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E7-speed%20dual-clutch%20auto%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFuel%20consumption%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E10.5L%2F100km%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOn%20sale%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENow%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EPrice%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFrom%20Dh129%2C999%20(VX%20Luxury)%3B%20from%20Dh149%2C999%20(VX%20Black%20Gold)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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Cricket World Cup League 2
UAE results
Lost to Oman by eight runs
Beat Namibia by three wickets
Lost to Oman by 12 runs
Beat Namibia by 43 runs
UAE fixtures
Free admission. All fixtures broadcast live on icc.tv
Tuesday March 15, v PNG at Sharjah Cricket Stadium
Friday March 18, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
Saturday March 19, v PNG at Dubai International Stadium
Monday March 21, v Nepal at Dubai International Stadium
The specs
Engine: Long-range single or dual motor with 200kW or 400kW battery
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Max touring range: 620km / 590km
Price: From Dh250,000 (estimated)
UAE central contracts
Full time contracts
Rohan Mustafa, Ahmed Raza, Mohammed Usman, Chirag Suri, Mohammed Boota, Sultan Ahmed, Zahoor Khan, Junaid Siddique, Waheed Ahmed, Zawar Farid
Part time contracts
Aryan Lakra, Ansh Tandon, Karthik Meiyappan, Rahul Bhatia, Alishan Sharafu, CP Rizwaan, Basil Hameed, Matiullah, Fahad Nawaz, Sanchit Sharma
Israel Palestine on Swedish TV 1958-1989
Director: Goran Hugo Olsson
Rating: 5/5
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hoopla%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EMarch%202023%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounder%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jacqueline%20Perrottet%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2010%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EPre-seed%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20required%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%24500%2C000%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
ADCC AFC Women’s Champions League Group A fixtures
October 3: v Wuhan Jiangda Women’s FC
October 6: v Hyundai Steel Red Angels Women’s FC
October 9: v Sabah FA
Company profile
Name: Steppi
Founders: Joe Franklin and Milos Savic
Launched: February 2020
Size: 10,000 users by the end of July and a goal of 200,000 users by the end of the year
Employees: Five
Based: Jumeirah Lakes Towers, Dubai
Financing stage: Two seed rounds – the first sourced from angel investors and the founders' personal savings
Second round raised Dh720,000 from silent investors in June this year
Company%20Profile
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Cargoz%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDate%20started%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20January%202022%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Premlal%20Pullisserry%20and%20Lijo%20Antony%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Dubai%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENumber%20of%20staff%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%2030%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestment%20stage%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Seed%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: 3.0-litre six-cylinder turbo
Power: 398hp from 5,250rpm
Torque: 580Nm at 1,900-4,800rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed auto
Fuel economy, combined: 6.5L/100km
On sale: December
Price: From Dh330,000 (estimate)