North Africa set to lead MENA in renewable power

Egypt's recent

of firm plans to develop a 1,000 megawatt wind farm is a sign that North African nations are set to lead the MENA region in renewable energy, outpacing richer Gulf states.

There are several reasons for this. They include superior wind resources, denser indigenous populations with less access to basic energy services, fewer conventional power generation options, proximity to Europe and lower fuel subsidies.

Wind resources make a difference because wind-power technology in many regions is competitive now with thermal electricity generation. With few regional exceptions, solar power is not. The Gulf states, all of which aspire to develop large-scale solar projects, are not yet among those exceptions.

Egypt's large population and relatively low average standard of living creates a powerful incentive for expansion of the country's electricity infrastructure, including renewable energy development. In modern urban settings, there are few greater sources of public discontent and more potent threats to incumbent political regimes  than electricity shortages.

This also applies, to a lesser extent, to other North African nations. All are becoming increasingly urbanised, placing great pressure on governments to improve local power supplies.

To date, on the electricity generation side, most of that demand has been met by thermal power plants, with natural gas being the fuel of choice. Morocco, however, with limited gas reserves, has turned to

.

Some other states such as Libya burn oil in many of their power plants, as they have sought to maintain sufficient gas supplies to fulfill export obligations. This parallels the situation in some GCC states including the UAE and Oman.

Libya could soon face a

unless it discovers large new reserves, especially if it proceeds with a plan to switch all its thermal power plants to gas, experts warned last week.

Egypt, which is also a net gas exporter, faces a similar dilemma. It is exploring options for importing Caspian gas via the Pan-Arab pipeline, which was built as a conduit for Egyptian gas exports to the northern Arab states and Turkey.

Gulf oil exporters, with the exception of Oman, have ample crude reserves, which they can continue burning for power generation until pollution and loss of export revenues become pressing issues. These areas are already causing problems for the region's governments,  but the urgency to change the electricity mix is mostly not as great as in heavily populated North African states.

Fuel subsidies also make a huge difference to the economic competitiveness of renewable power development. In the MENA region,  Egypt has been a leader in scaling them back, with the result that expensive deepwater gas developments and now, evidently, wind power projects, are moving ahead in the country.

Proximity to Europe as a major market for both gas and electricity exports is the final factor driving renewable energy development in North Africa.

The

foresees direct exports of electricity from North African wind and solar developments via undersea cables. Another, perhaps more realistic alternative in the short to medium term would be developing renewable power to serve local markets while increasing gas exports to Europe. There, gas would serve as a bridge to a lower-carbon energy environment by displacing coal in power generation.