The markets in Erbil are busy again and the mood is more optimistic. With ISIS largely vanquished and oil exports booming, the Kurdistan region of Iraq has made a surprising economic recovery from deep crisis. It has a chance to learn from previous mistakes and put itself on a firmer footing, but there are still warning signs ahead.
In late 2016, with control of the Kirkuk-area oilfields secured by Kurdish forces following the mid-2014 fall of Mosul to ISIS, the autonomous region was exporting about 650,000 barrels per day. A hefty loan and payments for ownership of an oil pipeline from Russia’s state giant Rosneft had given the Erbil government some financial breathing space. The settlement of a long-running arbitration case with Dana Gas of Sharjah opened the way for renewed gas development.
But the Kurds’ disastrous and misconceived referendum on independence in September 2017, shooting themselves in the foot like Brexit, gave Baghdad the chance to exploit a split between the two main political parties and retake much of the disputed territories. The region’s oil production was slashed to about 335,000 bpd and, with no share of the federal budget, it fell further into a financial crisis.
President Massoud Barzani had stayed on well beyond the expiry of his (already extended) term, which was part of the dispute between his Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, based in the southern Kurdish city of Sulaymaniyah.
But following the federal election in May, the new government in Baghdad, headed by the economist and former oil minister Adel Abdel Mehdi, has taken a more conciliatory line. With its existing pipeline from Kirkuk to the Turkish border unusable because of ISIS sabotage, it has agreed to send about 100,000 bpd through the main Kurdish pipeline.
Border customs collection has been unified and Baghdad has been paying the salaries of Kurdish civil servants and the Peshmerga military. The wage bill has been cut, partly by eliminating “ghost” positions. The new budget promises the Kurdistan region about $9 billion of the federal budget, if it transfers 250,000 bpd worth of revenues to the federal treasury.
The Kurdish government has finally been paying oil companies on a regular basis, encouraging them to make investments. Consequently, production has boomed. This has been led by the private Kurdish company KAR Group, which operates Khurmala, the northern most part of the Kirkuk field, still under Erbil’s control.
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The new Peshkabir field, operated by DNO of Norway, part-owned by RAK Petroleum of Ras Al Khaimah, has quickly reached 50,000 bpd of output. Taqa of Abu Dhabi, operator of the Atrush field, has bought out half the stake of its erstwhile partner Marathon, and production there is now approaching 30,000 bpd.
Several smaller fields have also made progress, with Genel Energy announcing last month development of the Sarta field in partnership with Chevron. Rosneft, which was awarded five exploration blocks as part of its series of deals in 2017, also aims to begin output this year.
From their nadir, total exports have rebounded to about 430,000 bpd, bringing the region almost $9bn in gross revenues per year at current prices. Its rising output combines with the rest of Iraq’s gains to put pressure on compliance with the Opec deal.
But there are warning signs ahead: geological, economic and political. On the geological front, it has become apparent that the rugged Kurdish mountains and gorges hint at the complexity of the rocks below. Several fields have fallen short of expectations: production at Genel’s flagship Taq Taq has collapsed from 140,000 bpd in 2015 to just 12,000 bpd. The reservoir rocks are highly fractured, and once oil is drained from these fractures, the underlying water enters production wells. Worryingly, the other large producing field, Tawke, held by DNO and Genel, has also recently started declining.
The region has long sought to exploit its large gas resources to meet domestic needs and then export to Turkey, which seemed under way with Rosneft’s promise to build a gas pipeline. But it is now unclear whether the Turkish economy, in danger of recession and set to receive additional Russian supplies at the end of this year, needs to buy much more gas. Electricity subsidies and non-payment at home remain a heavy drain on the budget, too. Despite recent rain, the region, like the whole of Iraq, faces a growing water crisis from drought and dams on its rivers upstream in Iran.
The thorny issue of disputed territories also remains, with specialist journal Iraq Oil Report recently investigating DNO's drilling in the contested Bashiqa area near Mosul. The end-game in eastern Syria risks further spillover of refugees and ISIS fighters into the adjoining parts of Iraq.
And the Kurds are unlikely to meet the requirement to transfer 250,000 bpd of oil export revenues to the federal government, concerned this would jeopardise their financial independence. The economy is still undiversified, government roles still allocated by patronage and nepotism, and the budget mostly dependent on oil, whether from the Kurds’ own or their share of earnings from Basra.
The regional authorities need to heed the warnings that oil production may not keep increasing and is even in danger of dropping, unless new developments and exploration are expedited. As the region seems to have more gas than oil, securing markets for it – whether at home, in Turkey or in the federally-controlled part of Iraq – is essential. Whether independent or autonomous, the region faces the acute challenge of sustaining economic viability.
Robin Mills is CEO of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
ARGYLLE
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Honeymoonish
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Most%20polluted%20cities%20in%20the%20Middle%20East
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MOST%20POLLUTED%20COUNTRIES%20IN%20THE%20WORLD
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Zayed Sustainability Prize
INDIA'S%20TOP%20INFLUENCERS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBhuvan%20Bam%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fbhuvan.bam22%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%2016.1%20million%3Cbr%3EBhuvan%20Bam%20is%20a%2029-year-old%20comedian%20and%20actor%20from%20Delhi%2C%20who%20started%20out%20with%20YouTube%20channel%2C%20%E2%80%9CBB%20Ki%20Vines%E2%80%9D%20in%202015%2C%20which%20propelled%20the%20social%20media%20star%20into%20the%20limelight%20and%20made%20him%20sought-after%20among%20brands.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EKusha%20Kapila%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fkushakapila%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%203.1%20million%3Cbr%3EKusha%20Kapila%20is%20a%20fashion%20editor%20and%20actress%2C%20who%20has%20collaborated%20with%20brands%20including%20Google.%20She%20focuses%20on%20sharing%20light-hearted%20content%20and%20insights%20into%20her%20life%20as%20a%20rising%20celebrity.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EDiipa%20Khosla%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fdiipakhosla%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.8%20million%3Cbr%3EDiipa%20Khosla%20started%20out%20as%20a%20social%20media%20manager%20before%20branching%20out%20to%20become%20one%20of%20India's%20biggest%20fashion%20influencers%2C%20with%20collaborations%20including%20MAC%20Cosmetics.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EKomal%20Pandey%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fkomalpandeyofficial%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.8%20million%3Cbr%3EKomal%20Pandey%20is%20a%20fashion%20influencer%20who%20has%20partnered%20with%20more%20than%20100%20brands%2C%20including%20Olay%20and%20smartphone%20brand%20Vivo%20India.%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENikhil%20Sharma%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3Cbr%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.instagram.com%2Fnikkkhil%2F%3Fhl%3Den%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EInstagram%3C%2Fa%3E%20followers%3A%201.4%20million%3Cbr%3ENikhil%20Sharma%20from%20Mumbai%20began%20his%20online%20career%20through%20vlogs%20about%20his%20motorcycle%20trips.%20He%20has%20become%20a%20lifestyle%20influencer%20and%20has%20created%20his%20own%20clothing%20line.%3Cbr%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20Hireinfluence%2C%20various%3C%2Fem%3E%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
57%20Seconds
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rusty%20Cundieff%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJosh%20Hutcherson%2C%20Morgan%20Freeman%2C%20Greg%20Germann%2C%20Lovie%20Simone%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E2%2F5%0D%3Cbr%3E%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Brief scoreline
Switzerland 0
England 0
Result: England win 6-5 on penalties
Man of the Match: Trent Alexander-Arnold (England)
Teaching in coronavirus times
Read more about the coronavirus
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The specs
Price: From Dh180,000 (estimate)
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged and supercharged in-line four-cylinder
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 320hp @ 5,700rpm
Torque: 400Nm @ 2,200rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 9.7L / 100km
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
DC%20League%20of%20Super-Pets
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COMPANY%20PROFILE
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FIVE%20TRENDS%20THAT%20WILL%20SHAPE%20UAE%20BANKING
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20The%20digitisation%20of%20financial%20services%20will%20continue%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Managing%20and%20using%20data%20effectively%20will%20become%20a%20competitive%20advantage%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Digitisation%20will%20require%20continued%20adjustment%20of%20operating%20models%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Banks%20will%20expand%20their%20role%20in%20the%20customer%20life%20through%20ecosystems%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20The%20structure%20of%20the%20sector%20will%20change%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
WHAT%20MACRO%20FACTORS%20ARE%20IMPACTING%20META%20TECH%20MARKETS%3F
%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Looming%20global%20slowdown%20and%20recession%20in%20key%20economies%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Russia-Ukraine%20war%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Interest%20rate%20hikes%20and%20the%20rising%20cost%20of%20debt%20servicing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Oil%20price%20volatility%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Persisting%20inflationary%20pressures%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Exchange%20rate%20fluctuations%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20Shortage%20of%20labour%2Fskills%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%E2%80%A2%20A%20resurgence%20of%20Covid%3F%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
More from Rashmee Roshan Lall
RESULTS
6.30pm: Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Dirt) 1,600m
Winner: Hypothetical, Mickael Barzalona (jockey), Salem bin Ghadayer (trainer)
7.05pm: Meydan Sprint – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (Turf) 1,000m
Winner: Equilateral, Andrea Atzeni, Charles Hills
7.40pm: Curlin Stakes – Listed Handicap (TB) $88,000 (D) 2,200m
Winner: New Trails, Fernando Jara, Ahmad bin Harmash
8.15pm: UAE Oaks – Group 3 (TB) $125,000 (D) 1,900m
Winner: Mnasek, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
8.50pm: Zabeel Mile – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,600m
Winner: D’bai, William Buick, Charlie Appleby
9.25pm: Balanchine – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,800m
Winner: Summer Romance, James Doyle, Charlie Appleby
10pm: Al Shindagha Sprint – Group 3 (TB) $130,000 (D) 1,200m
Winner: Al Tariq, Pat Dobbs, Doug Watson
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Getting there
Flydubai flies direct from Dubai to Tbilisi from Dh1,025 return including taxes
Defending champions
World Series: South Africa
Women’s World Series: Australia
Gulf Men’s League: Dubai Exiles
Gulf Men’s Social: Mediclinic Barrelhouse Warriors
Gulf Vets: Jebel Ali Dragons Veterans
Gulf Women: Dubai Sports City Eagles
Gulf Under 19: British School Al Khubairat
Gulf Under 19 Girls: Dubai Exiles
UAE National Schools: Al Safa School
International Invitational: Speranza 22
International Vets: Joining Jack
25%20Days%20to%20Aden
%3Cp%3EAuthor%3A%20Michael%20Knights%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EPages%3A%20256%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EAvailable%3A%20January%2026%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What to watch out for:
Algae, waste coffee grounds and orange peels will be used in the pavilion's walls and gangways
The hulls of three ships will be used for the roof
The hulls will painted to make the largest Italian tricolour in the country’s history
Several pillars more than 20 metres high will support the structure
Roughly 15 tonnes of steel will be used
Dr Graham's three goals
Short term
Establish logistics and systems needed to globally deploy vaccines
Intermediate term
Build biomedical workforces in low- and middle-income nations
Long term
A prototype pathogen approach for pandemic preparedness
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
VEZEETA PROFILE
Date started: 2012
Founder: Amir Barsoum
Based: Dubai, UAE
Sector: HealthTech / MedTech
Size: 300 employees
Funding: $22.6 million (as of September 2018)
Investors: Technology Development Fund, Silicon Badia, Beco Capital, Vostok New Ventures, Endeavour Catalyst, Crescent Enterprises’ CE-Ventures, Saudi Technology Ventures and IFC
Walls
Louis Tomlinson
3 out of 5 stars
(Syco Music/Arista Records)
About Takalam
Date started: early 2020
Founders: Khawla Hammad and Inas Abu Shashieh
Based: Abu Dhabi
Sector: HealthTech and wellness
Number of staff: 4
Funding to date: Bootstrapped