Moody's Investors Service downgraded Russia's ratings deeper into “junk”, or non-investment grade territory, for the second time in two weeks and expects the country's economy to shrink 7 per cent this year due to mounting pressure on its finances.
The country's long-term issuer and senior unsecured debt ratings were cut to Ca from B3 on Sunday with a negative outlook, the rating agency said. The latest downgrade follows the slashing of the Russia ratings on February 25.
Moody's said its decision was prompted by the Central Bank of Russia's capital control measures put in place following sanctions imposed on the country by the US, Europe and other countries in response to Russia's military offensive in Ukraine. Moscow's capital control measures are likely to restrict cross border payments including debt service on government bonds, the rating agency said.
The ratings downgrade signals a country is undergoing financial instability or may not have adequate cash reserves relative to its needs and financial obligations, which makes it speculative and considered a high credit risk. That will make it difficult for Russia and Russian companies to raise funding globally.
“The downgrade to Ca is hence driven by severe concerns around Russia's willingness and ability to pay its debt obligations,” the rating agency said. “Moody's view is that the risk of a default occurring has significantly increased and that the likely recovery for investors will be in line with the historical average, commensurate with a Ca rating.”
Recovery expectations are at 35 per cent to 65 per cent at a Ca rating, it said.
Sanctions against Russia's central bank will “severely restrict” its access to international reserves to support its currency and financial system, the International Monetary Fund said on Saturday. The central bank more than doubled the key interest rate to 20 per cent to try to shield the $1.5 trillion economy and a currency that fell to a record low. Russia's rouble has plummeted more than 61 per cent since the start of the year from about 75 to about 121 to the US dollar.
International sanctions on Russia’s banking system and the exclusion of a number of banks from global payments system Swift have “significantly disrupted” the country’s ability to receive payments for exports, pay for imports and make cross-border financial transactions, says the Washington-based lender.
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Sony's game division and Nintendo said they have suspended shipments of software and hardware to Russia. Nintendo said it is suspending shipping all products to Russia "for the foreseeable future... due to considerable volatility surrounding the logistics of shipping and distributing physical goods." AFP -
Rio Tinto said it "is in the process of terminating all commercial relationships it has with any Russian business". It has an alumina joint venture with Moscow-based United Rusal International. Reuters -
McDonald's is temporarily closing all 847 of its restaurants in Russia. AFP -
Starbucks is suspending all business activity in Russia, including shipments of its products and cafes run by licencees. AFP -
Coca-Cola is suspending sales in Russia. Coca-Cola said its business in Russia and Ukraine contributed about 1 to 2 per cent of the company's net operating revenue in 2021. Reuters -
PepsiCo is suspending sales of its sodas in Russia. It said it would continue to sell daily essentials, such as milk and other dairy offerings, baby formula and baby food, in Russia. Getty Images / AFP -
Yum Brands, behind KFC and Pizza Hut, also said it was suspending investment in Russia. Reuters -
Toyota is halting production at its plant in St Petersburg, and will halt vehicle shipments to Russia. Reuters -
Ikea said it would suspend its activities in Russia and Belarus, affecting nearly 15,000 employees, 17 stores and three production sites. AFP -
Honda will stop exports of cars and motorcycles to Russia. EPA -
Jaguar Land Rover has paused the delivery of its cars to Russia due to "trading challenges". -
Airbus is suspending sale of parts and support services to airline customers in Russia. Reuters -
Boeing has suspended major operations in Moscow and temporarily closed its office in Kyiv. It is also suspending parts, maintenance and technical support services for Russian airlines. Reuters -
Nike has made merchandise purchases on its website and app unavailable in Russia as it cannot guarantee delivery of goods to customers in the country, an update on the sportswear maker's website showed. Bloomberg -
German sportswear company Puma has stopped deliveries to Russia, but its 100 stores are open. Getty Images -
Shell is to exit all its Russian operations, including a major liquefied natural gas plant. The company also plans to end its involvement in the Nord Stream II gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. PA -
BP is exiting its 19.75 per cent shareholding in Russian oil giant Rosneft after pressure from the UK government. BP has operated in Russia for more than 30 years. Reuters -
ExxonMobil will cease operations in Russia and refrain from making new investments in the country. It holds a 30 per cent stake, alongside Rosneft, Japan's Sodeco and India's ONGC Videsh, in the Sakhalin Island oil and gas fields in Russia’s far east. Its business in the country is valued at more than $4 billion. AFP -
Eni said it would withdraw from the Blue Stream gas pipeline linking Russia to Turkey, in which it has a 50 per cent stake. The company controls the gas pipeline -- which links the two countries via the Black Sea -- equally with Russian energy giant Gazprom. Reuters -
British Gas owner Centrica has said it will exit gas supply agreements with its Russian counterparts, including Gazprom. Centrica said it currently has a medium-term contract with Gazprom Marketing and Trading, the Russian energy company's UK entity, through which gas can be sourced from the open market. Reuters -
Norwegian energy group Equinor said it will start the process of divesting from its joint ventures in Russia. Reuters -
HSBC said it was starting to wind down relations with a host of Russian banks including the second-largest, VTB, one of those targeted by sanctions, a memo seen by Reuters showed. AFP -
Volkswagen suspended deliveries of cars to dealers in Russia. 'Deliveries are to resume as soon as the effects of the sanctions imposed by the European Union and the United States have been clarified', a VW representative said. AP -
Swedish automaker Volvo Cars said it would suspend car shipments to the Russian market until further notice, becoming the first international car maker to do so. Supplied -
GM said it would suspend all vehicle exports to Russia until further notice. The Detroit company does not have plants in Russia, only sells about 3,000 vehicles annually in the country and has limited supply-chain exposure. AFP -
Danish shipping giant Maersk said that it would stop taking new non-essential orders to and from Russia, owing to sanctions imposed over Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. AFP -
Singapore-headquartered container shipping company Ocean Network Express has suspended bookings to and from Russia. Reuters -
AerCap Holdings, the world's biggest plane lessor with about 5 per cent of its fleet leased to Russian airlines, said it will stop trading with Russian customers. Reuters -
US-based United Parcel Service said it is halting delivery services to Russia and Ukraine. Bloomberg -
FedEx also said it is temporarily suspending inbound and outbound services to Ukraine and inbound services to Russia until further notice. AP -
Microsoft said it would remove Russian state-owned media outlet RT's mobile apps from its Windows App store and ban ads on Russian state-sponsored media. Reuters -
Google has barred RT and other Russian channels from receiving money for ads on websites, apps and YouTube videos. Reuters -
German heavy-goods vehicle group Daimler Truck has said it will cease its co-operation with Russian lorry-maker Kamaz. AFP -
Motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson has suspended shipments of its bikes to Russia. Pictured, Russian President Vladimir Putin. Reuters -
Facebook owner Meta Platforms has restricted access to accounts run by Sputnik and RT in the EU. Reuters -
Apple has paused all product sales and limited the functionality of other services in Russia. Reuters
Russia's negative outlook reflects “the significant risks” to its macro-economic stability posed by the imposition of severe and co-ordinated sanctions following Russia's military offensive in Ukraine, the financial ramifications from delays to sovereign debt repayments and banking and corporate sector stress that are likely to have negative reverberations for macro stability, Moody's said.
“Concerns around the government's willingness to pay and the unpredictability of government actions could result in larger than historical average losses for investors,” it said.
On Thursday, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Russia's ratings eight notches to CCC-. It was the second time in a week, after it had downgraded it to BB+. It also placed Russia's sovereign ratings on negative watch, which means a further downgrade is possible and S&P could lower them again in the next few weeks. Fitch and Moody's previously downgraded Russia's sovereign credit rating six notches to non-investment grade status due to the wave of US and EU sanctions.
“Restrictions on some Russian banks' access to the financial messaging system Swift, coupled with the direct sanctioning of large state-owned banks and the CBR will effectively block these institutions from participating in the global financial system and make it exceptionally difficult for them to engage in international transactions,” Moody's said.
“Given compliance risks, non-Russian institutions will be very reluctant to deal with sanctioned and likely also non-sanctioned entities within Russia. These restrictions on Russia's ability to execute its sovereign debt payments compound already significant concerns around Russia's willingness to service its debt,” it said.
Sanctions are likely to disrupt Russia's economy and financial sector in the long term, with the economy contracting 7 per cent this year and further in 2023, the rating agency said.
The depreciation of Russia's rouble will have “severe economic consequences” and lead to higher inflation and lower living standards.
Russia is the world's second largest energy exporter and inflows of foreign currency from the export of oil and gas may cushion the impact of the sanctions, but the country faces the likelihood of “sustained economic disruption and increased susceptibility to shocks”, Moody's said.
