Africa's food security is increasingly in jeopardy because of the conflict in the Middle East that has sent oil prices soaring and upended key trade routes, a report has found.
Gross domestic product across the continent this year is expected to decline by 0.2 percentage points if the duration of the war between US-Israeli forces and Iran exceeds six months.
The report was co-written by the African Development Bank, African Union Commission, UN Economic Commission for Africa and UN Development Programme.
Food prices, in particular, are being felt mainly by vulnerable households in a continent where most countries are still growing at rates below pre-Covid levels, the study found.
The war has already has triggered a trade shock, which could potentially and quickly turn into a cost-of-living crisis across Africa due to higher fuel and food prices, rising shipping and insurance costs, exchange rate pressure and tighter fiscal conditions.
“The extent of this impact would vary across the continent based on levels of import dependency, exposure to the Middle East and global market conditions,” the report said.
“Thus, the longer the conflict lasts and the more severe the disruption to shipping routes and energy and fertiliser supplies, the greater the risk of a significant growth slowdown across the continent.”
The report said the Middle East accounts for nearly 16 per cent of Africa’s imports and 10.9 per cent of its exports. The Strait of Hormuz – the key waterway effectively shut by Iran – usually handles a fifth of global oil exports and nearly 90 per cent of Arabian Gulf oil exports.
“Continued escalation of the conflict worsens global instability, with serious implications for energy markets, food security and economic resilience, particularly in Africa where economic pressures remain acute,” said Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, chairman of the African Union Commission.
Food security is crucial to Africa, with an estimated population of more than 1.57 billion, as communities across the continent rely on agriculture for their livelihood. A lack of food security can lead to hunger, malnutrition and social instability, says the African Food Security, an agricultural development firm.
It says the main challenges in the continent's food sector are climate change, poor infrastructure, limited access to modern farming technology, political instability, land degradation and rapid population growth.
On Friday, the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation reported that global food prices rose in March for the second month in a row, as a result of higher energy prices linked to the Iran war – and are expected to increase further if the conflict is prolonged.
“Africa has been hit by too many external shocks not of its making,” said Claver Gatete, undersecretary general and executive secretary of the UN Economic Commission for Africa. “This moment calls for decisive action, to protect people now, but also to accelerate Africa’s long‑term push towards energy security, food sovereignty and financial self‑reliance.”
While the wear continues, the report recommends that, in the short term, African countries could activate contingency import financing arrangements and use temporary, targeted social-protection measures, net oil and gas-exporting countries should save excess revenue, and central banks should introduce flexible strategic monetary and exchange-rate policies.
Longer-term measures such as strengthening fiscal security, building financial safety nets, designing continental fuel and fertiliser security strategies and developing an Africa-wide pact on crisis resiliency, should help defend against future shocks.
“With the right mix of policy choices, financing tools and political resolve, Africa can weather this shock and emerge more resilient, more self-reliant and better positioned to shape its own economic future,” said Ahunna Eziakonwa, assistant secretary general and director of the UNDP’s regional bureau for Africa.
