The Rolex Daytona is one of the most popular luxury watch models in an index that has seen its value fall by about 21 per cent since a market peak in April. Bloomberg
The Rolex Daytona is one of the most popular luxury watch models in an index that has seen its value fall by about 21 per cent since a market peak in April. Bloomberg
The Rolex Daytona is one of the most popular luxury watch models in an index that has seen its value fall by about 21 per cent since a market peak in April. Bloomberg
The Rolex Daytona is one of the most popular luxury watch models in an index that has seen its value fall by about 21 per cent since a market peak in April. Bloomberg

Prices of second-hand luxury watches to drop further as supply surges, says Morgan Stanley


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Prices for the most popular pre-owned Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet watches will fall further as the market has been flooded with supply, analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a report.

After surging in 2021 and during the first quarter of the year, an index of the most popular models from Daytona chronograph maker Rolex tracked by WatchCharts has fallen by 21 per cent since the market peak in April.

Prices for the most popular Nautilus-maker Patek Philippe references are down an average of 19 per cent on the secondary market, while those for Audemars Piguet, the maker of the Royal Oak, have declined 15 per cent since the peak.

Prices will probably keep falling due to a “dramatic” increase in supply, Morgan Stanley analysts including Edouard Aubin said in the report.

“We have noticed a significant increase of watch inventory in the secondary watch market year to date as a result of second-hand watch dealers and individual watch investors off-loading their stocks,” Morgan Stanley said.

“Given the current watch inventory for sale and the worsening macro backdrop, we would expect second hand prices to contract further quarter over quarter.”

The most in-demand models of the "big three" — Rolex, Patek and Audemars Piguet — account for a significant 71 per cent of of the total traded value of the secondary luxury watch market.

Prices for the WatchCharts overall market index, which includes other brands, fell by 9 per cent in the third quarter this year compared to the second quarter.

An example of the decline is the Vacheron Constantin Overseas, reference 4500V/110A-B483. The steel sportswatch model, made by the Richemont-owned brand with a retail price of $22,500, peaked at $39,900 on the secondary market in April.

It can now be purchased for about $30,900, which is still a significant premium over retail.

A Patek Philippe Nautilus watch, which sold for $6.5 million at an auction in New York in December 2021. Photo: Patek Philippe
A Patek Philippe Nautilus watch, which sold for $6.5 million at an auction in New York in December 2021. Photo: Patek Philippe

Secondary watch market prices have declined less than many other asset classes during the past 18 months, according to the report.

While secondhand prices of the 30 most traded Rolex watches fell 8 per cent this quarter, they are still up a cumulative 21 per cent since January 2021.

This compares favourably to the S&P 500 stock market index which is flat while Bitcoin is down 34 per cent during the same period.

What is a robo-adviser?

Robo-advisers use an online sign-up process to gauge an investor’s risk tolerance by feeding information such as their age, income, saving goals and investment history into an algorithm, which then assigns them an investment portfolio, ranging from more conservative to higher risk ones.

These portfolios are made up of exchange traded funds (ETFs) with exposure to indices such as US and global equities, fixed-income products like bonds, though exposure to real estate, commodity ETFs or gold is also possible.

Investing in ETFs allows robo-advisers to offer fees far lower than traditional investments, such as actively managed mutual funds bought through a bank or broker. Investors can buy ETFs directly via a brokerage, but with robo-advisers they benefit from investment portfolios matched to their risk tolerance as well as being user friendly.

Many robo-advisers charge what are called wrap fees, meaning there are no additional fees such as subscription or withdrawal fees, success fees or fees for rebalancing.

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Name: Thndr
Started: 2019
Co-founders: Ahmad Hammouda and Seif Amr
Sector: FinTech
Headquarters: Egypt
UAE base: Hub71, Abu Dhabi
Current number of staff: More than 150
Funds raised: $22 million

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Age: 37

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October 4: Round One of Rotax Max Challenge, Al Ain (karting)

October 1: 1 Round One of the inaugural UAE Desert Championship (rally)

November 1-3: Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Formula One)

November 28-30: Dubai International Rally

January 9-11: 24Hrs of Dubai (Touring Cars / Endurance)

March 21: Round 11 of Rotax Max Challenge, Muscat, Oman (karting)

April 4-10: Abu Dhabi Desert Challenge (Endurance)

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Ten tax points to be aware of in 2026

1. Domestic VAT refund amendments: request your refund within five years

If a business does not apply for the refund on time, they lose their credit.

2. E-invoicing in the UAE

Businesses should continue preparing for the implementation of e-invoicing in the UAE, with 2026 a preparation and transition period ahead of phased mandatory adoption. 

3. More tax audits

Tax authorities are increasingly using data already available across multiple filings to identify audit risks. 

4. More beneficial VAT and excise tax penalty regime

Tax disputes are expected to become more frequent and more structured, with clearer administrative objection and appeal processes. The UAE has adopted a new penalty regime for VAT and excise disputes, which now mirrors the penalty regime for corporate tax.

5. Greater emphasis on statutory audit

There is a greater need for the accuracy of financial statements. The International Financial Reporting Standards standards need to be strictly adhered to and, as a result, the quality of the audits will need to increase.

6. Further transfer pricing enforcement

Transfer pricing enforcement, which refers to the practice of establishing prices for internal transactions between related entities, is expected to broaden in scope. The UAE will shortly open the possibility to negotiate advance pricing agreements, or essentially rulings for transfer pricing purposes. 

7. Limited time periods for audits

Recent amendments also introduce a default five-year limitation period for tax audits and assessments, subject to specific statutory exceptions. While the standard audit and assessment period is five years, this may be extended to up to 15 years in cases involving fraud or tax evasion. 

8. Pillar 2 implementation 

Many multinational groups will begin to feel the practical effect of the Domestic Minimum Top-Up Tax (DMTT), the UAE's implementation of the OECD’s global minimum tax under Pillar 2. While the rules apply for financial years starting on or after January 1, 2025, it is 2026 that marks the transition to an operational phase.

9. Reduced compliance obligations for imported goods and services

Businesses that apply the reverse-charge mechanism for VAT purposes in the UAE may benefit from reduced compliance obligations. 

10. Substance and CbC reporting focus

Tax authorities are expected to continue strengthening the enforcement of economic substance and Country-by-Country (CbC) reporting frameworks. In the UAE, these regimes are increasingly being used as risk-assessment tools, providing tax authorities with a comprehensive view of multinational groups’ global footprints and enabling them to assess whether profits are aligned with real economic activity. 

Contributed by Thomas Vanhee and Hend Rashwan, Aurifer

Dark Souls: Remastered
Developer: From Software (remaster by QLOC)
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Updated: May 30, 2023, 10:47 AM