In Myanmar, 2016 arrived to an atmosphere of cautious optimism. Few had expected the overwhelming victory of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) in the general elections six weeks before.
Outgoing president U Thein Sein, and the military chiefs behind him, stuck by their promise that the transition to the country’s first democratically-elected government in almost 50 years would take place peacefully.
In March, to joyous scenes in parliament, it was announced that U Htin Kyaw, a close confidant of Suu Kyi, would be the new president and on the final day of that month, Suu Kyi’s new government finally took control of the democratically-elected parliament. Well, three-quarters democratic at least – unelected military representatives are guaranteed 25 per cent of seats under the existing constitution. Suu Kyi quickly played what appeared to be a trump card. She was to be “State Counsellor” – a new position which effectively put her, as she had vowed she would be, “above the president”.
With constitutional change a military non-negotiable, Suu Kyi turned her attention to her other key goal – an end to conflict. In memory of her father, assassinated independence champion Aung San’s legendary peace deal with key ethnic minority representatives which was signed in Panglong, Shan State, in 1947, she declared there would be a “21st Century Panglong” involving state military and ethnic armed group leaders.
While the 21st Century Panglong meeting drew foreign dignatories as high in profile as UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon, the event itself did little to significantly advance the peace process. Indeed, the country’s largest and most powerful ethnic armed force, the United Wa State Army, walked out on the first day.
In the northern Shan and Kachin states fighting rages between former ethnic allies, as well as against the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) and has displaced thousands of civilians.
For the one million-plus Muslim Rohingya minority in northwest Rakhine State, who are mainly stateless, initial hopes that an NLD administration would improve human rights violations and movement restrictions were quashed when party chiefs stated that the Rohingya were “not a priority”.
The surprise announcement in September that former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan would head a new independent Rakhine Advisory Commission was seen by some that maybe the new democracy was starting to bring dividends. More cynical observers linked the sudden move to address what had become a matter of international concern with Suu Kyi’s trip to Washington DC, days later. There she was to successfully persuade US president Barack Obama to lift the last remaining sanctions on Myanmar.
In October, the military responded to a series of deadly armed raids on border police posts in northern Rakhine, believed to be carried out by Rohingya insurgents. Aid organisations and foreign journalists were denied access, but unverifiable reports emerged, of summary executions, rapes and the burning of properties by the military. The president’s office issued denials that any atrocities were taking place and Suu Kyi was noticeably silent.
As evidence mounts of the scale of abuses occurring in northern Rakhine, there have been protests in neighbouring countries. A senior UN representative in Bangladesh, where hundreds of Rohingya have fled, said that the violence amounted to ethnic cleansing. In response to international pressure, Suu Kyi has announced an inquiry headed by vice president Myint Swe, a military man close to the country’s most powerful generals, who gained notoriety for his role in the brutal crackdown on protesting monks during the 2007 Saffron uprising. His ability to produce a credible, impartial report has been challenged.
With violence in ethnic minority areas at its worst since reforms began in 2012 hopes are floundering that Suu Kyi has the power or even the desire to bring change.
Fiona MacGregor is a former special investigations editor at the Myanmar Times.
