Hamas attack complicates talks on Israeli-Saudi relations, experts say

What now for the historic deal as Prime Minister Netanyahu warns of a long fight ahead

Israel has launched air strikes on Gaza after an attack on the country by Hamas militants. EPA

The unprecedented attack Hamas launched against Israel on Saturday prompted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to tell Israelis to prepare for a “long war” and raised tensions across the region.

The assault caught Israeli intelligence services completely off guard, with the US also seeming to have had no inkling that an attack was imminent.

The US shares intelligence with Israel and the consensus in Washington had been that the security situation in the country was better than it had been of late.

That had helped to set the scene for the US to hold talks to establish formal ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel under a continuation of the Abraham Accords.

The accords were signed in 2020 by Israel and the UAE and Bahrain. Agreements were later signed between Israel and Morocco and Sudan.

About a week ago, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said the “Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades” and sounded rosy about prospects for a Saudi-Israeli deal that reportedly would include US security guarantees and a civilian nuclear programme for Riyadh.

On Saturday, Hamas militants killed more than 100 Israeli soldiers and civilians, took dozens of Israelis hostage and launched more than 3,000 rockets.

Israel vowed to launch a major response and struck targets in Gaza, killing at least 198 people.

In a televised address on Saturday night, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who earlier declared Israel to be at war, said the military will use all of its strength to destroy Hamas’ capabilities and “take revenge for this black day.”

“This war take time. It will be difficult,” he said.

Hani El Masri, a political analyst in Ramallah, said the Hamas attack will complicate and delay efforts to normalise ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel.

“It will also reinforce the voices that say that without a Palestinian solution, there is no solution,” he told The National.

Three decades of on-again, off-again US-brokered negotiations have failed to produce a peace agreement and the creation of an independent Palestinian state, which has long been regarded as the key to ending the violence.

That failure has fuelled discontent, especially among Palestinians, as Israel continues to maintain its military occupation of the West Bank.

The situation had long affected efforts to establish ties between Israel and its Arab neighbours.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said in an interview last month that an agreement between the kingdom and Israel should include “easing the lives of Palestinians”, without elaborating.

Prince Mohammed denied reports that Riyadh was putting talks on hold because Israel’s right-wing government was unwilling to offer concessions to the Palestinians.

Thomas Warrick, former deputy assistant secretary for counter-terrorism policy at the US Department of Homeland Security, said the latest violence would not change the “underlying strategic dynamic” of a future agreement.

“The normalisation process is being driven by factors in the relationships between and among the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the other countries that are involved,” Mr Warrick, now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Coucil, told The National.

“Certainly this is going to put a pause on things, but in actuality it does not change the underlying strategic dynamic.”

Steven Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said the Hamas assault would not change the “underlying dynamic” under way between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

“It doesn't strike me that this episode will necessarily bring it to a grinding halt. After all, the Saudis have indicated their ongoing frustration with the Palestinians in the Palestinian arena,” he said on a press call.

“Whether this comes to an absolute halt will really depend very much on how the Israelis respond in the Gaza Strip.”

Previous conflicts between Israel and Hamas led to widespread destruction in Gaza and high death tolls.

With a far-right government in Israel, the situation is now even more volatile. Experts have said a pause in the expansion of Israeli settlements is among the minimum requirements to appease the Palestinians.

But the current make-up of the Israeli government will make such a demand a tough sell. Ministers in Mr Netanyahu's government have openly said they want to pursue the full annexation of the West Bank.

“If it was difficult before, it makes it almost impossible now because any compromise, any gesture, anything that you offer the Palestinians right now will be looked at by the mainstream, let alone the zealots, as rewarding terrorists, as rewarding Hamas who kill people,” Akiva Eldar, a political analyst in Israel, told The National.

“Even the minimum requirements that the Saudis are expecting, such as putting on hold expansion of settlements, is impossible.”

Mr El Masri says a lot rests on how Israel responds to this latest escalation.

“Israel could launch a massive operation on Gaza aimed at destroying Hamas. This will be difficult, but it's a possibility,” he said.

“Or, because of the hostages, which could be used as human shields, we could see American and Arab intervention leading to an agreement.”

A senior Biden administration official said Centcom commander Gen Michael Kurilla had been in contact with Israeli partners for "regular co-ordination about some of the needs that Israel anticipates".

Israel has launched four full-scale wars, and scores of military strikes on the Gaza Strip since Hamas took over the territory in a coup in 2007.

Brokered ceasefires have ended the fighting, but proven short-lived.

The most recent example was in 2021. Following weeks of tensions around Israeli actions in and around Jerusalem’s Al Aqsa Mosque compound during Ramadan, Hamas began firing rockets into Israel.

Israel responded with air strikes. Nearly 250 people were killed in Gaza and 13 in Israel in 11 days of fighting.

Gaza launches rockets into Israel – in pictures

Palestinians transport a captured Israeli civilian from Kibbutz Kfar Azza into the Gaza Strip. AP

Palestinians celebrate by a destroyed Israeli tank at the Gaza Strip border fence, east of Khan Younis. AP

Smoke rises from an area near a power plant outside Ashkelon, Israel. AP

Palestinians walk away from the Kfar Azza area of Israel, near the border fence with the Gaza strip. AP

A rocket is launched from Gaza towards Israel by militants of Ezzedine Al Qassam, the military wing of Hamas. PA

Israeli rescuers tend to an elderly man at the entrance of a building in Ashkelon struck by a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip. AFP

Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza. Reuters

Palestinians return to Gaza City driving an Israeli Humvee that was seized after militants entered Israel. AFP

A rocket is launched from the Gaza strip towards Israel by Ezzedine Al Qassam militants. EPA

Israelis queue to donate blood at a hospital in Tel Aviv, to help people wounded in the Palestinian attacks. AFP

An aerial view shows vehicles on fire as rockets are launched from the Gaza Strip, in Ashkelon, southern Israel. Reuters

Palestinian militants move towards the border fence with Israel from Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip. AFP

Smoke billows from residential buildings following Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City. AFP

A man runs past cars damaged during a rocket attack in Ashkelon, Israel. Bloomberg

Palestinians surround an Israeli military vehicle hit by Palestinian gunmen who infiltrated areas of southern Israel, on the Israeli side of Israel-Gaza border. Reuters

Israeli police evacuate a family from a site hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip. AP

A rocket is launched from the Gaza strip towards Israel by militants of the Ezzedine Al Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas. EPA

Israeli police officers evacuate a woman and a child from a site hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip. AP

Ezzedine Al Qassam fighters move towards the Erez crossing between Israel and the northern Gaza Strip. AFP

A member of Israeli security forces tries to extinguish fire on cars following a rocket attack from the Gaza Strip in Ashkelon, southern Israel. AFP

Palestinian militants of the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades move towards the Erez crossing between Israel and the northern Gaza Strip. AFP

Israeli military drive on a road in southern Israel, as rockets are launched from the Gaza Strip, outside Sderot. Reuters

Smoke billows from a residential building following an Israeli airstrike in Gaza City. AFP

The Rehovot area south of Tel Aviv after rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip. Reuters

Palestinians celebrate as an Israeli tank burns after it was hit by Palestinian gunmen in southern Israel. Reuters

A building in Tel Aviv ablaze following rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip, in Tel Aviv, Israel. Reuters

Israeli soldiers mobilise on a road in central Israel. AP Photo

Residents gather outside a damaged building in Tel Aviv following a rocket attack from the Gaza Strip into Israel. AFP

A rocket is launched by the Ezz Al Din Al Qassam militia from the coastal Gaza strip towards Israel. EPA

A building in the Israeli city of Gedera burns after a direct hit by rockets launched from Gaza. EPA

Smoke rises after a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip hit a house in Ashkelon, southern Israel. AP Photo

Smoke rising from the direction of the Israeli cities of Ashdod and Gedera following rocket launches from Gaza on Saturday. EPA

Rockets fired from Gaza on Saturday morning head towards Israel. AP Photo

The rocket barrages from Gaza hit the coastal city of Ashkelon in southern Israel. Reuters

Rocket contrails in the air over Gaza as Palestinian missiles are sent into Israel. Reuters

The aftermath of rocket barrages in Ashkelon, southern Israel. Reuters

Rockets are fired toward Israel from Gaza. AP Photo

Israeli emergency personnel sit under a tree in Ashkelon after rockets were launched into Israel from the Gaza Strip. Reuters

Dozens of rockets were fired from the blockaded Gaza Strip towards Israel. AFP

Residents in Ashkelon look to the skies after rockets launched from the Gaza Strip shake their neighbourhood. Reuters

Rockets are fired from Gaza City as Israel's Iron Dome air defence system attempts to intercept them. AFP

Security tape is rolled out in the streets after rockets launched from the Gaza Strip hit Israel. Reuters

A man watches as rockets are fired from Gaza City towards Israel. AFP

Rockets are fired from Gaza City towards Israel. AFP

A resident surveys the damage after rockets from the Gaza Strip hit Ashkelon in Israel. Reuters

Residents follow the sound of rockets launched from the Gaza Strip as they hit Ashkelon in Israel. Reuters

Israeli firefighters extinguish fire after a rocket attack on Ashkelon. AP Photo

A man seeks cover after rockets launched from the Gaza Strip land in Ashkelon, Israel. Reuters

Rockets fired from Gaza City towards Israel rise into the early morning sky. AFP

An emergency worker fights fire after rockets launched from the Gaza Strip hit Israel. Reuters

Rockets are fired from Gaza City towards Israel. AFP

A barrage of rockets from Gaza City are filmed as they make their way towards Israel. AFP