Trump a ‘wild card’ for the Middle East

From ISIL to Iran to Palestine, Donald Trump's foreign policy has so far been at best vague and at worst contradictory.

US military soldiers move through Qayyarah West coalition base in Qayyarah, some 50 kilometres south of Mosul, Iraq on November 9, 2016. Now that Donald Trump will be the next US president, all eyes are on his policies on ISIL and the Middle East. Marko Drobnjakovic/AP PhotoShow less

BEIRUT // In the hours after divisive Republican Donald Trump was declared the winner in the US presidential election, congratulations flooded in from America’s friends and foes in the Middle East.

Some countries in the region hope to reboot tattered relationships, others are trying to continue long-standing partnerships or keep dialogue open despite mutual hostility.

Mr Trump has promised to overhaul Washington’s foreign policy, but his proposals for the Middle East have so far been at best vague and at worst contradictory. For countries in the region, Mr Trump is a wild card whose direction will affect the most serious issues they face.

ISIL

During his campaign, Mr Trump continually exaggerated the strength and ability of ISIL even though the group was suffering significant losses in Iraq and Syria. The US was “not winning” the war against ISIL and the operation to retake Mosul was a “disaster”, he proclaimed. He frequently said ISIL controlled much of Libya’s oil when they do not. He has also claimed that the severely degraded group could invade the US.

While portraying ISIL as a large and imminent threat to the US, he promised to quickly defeat the group.

But Mr Trump has provided few details on how he would do this, defending his secrecy by saying he did not want to tip off the enemy. Despite lacking experience in military, intelligence or foreign affairs, he claims to know more about the fight against ISIL than the US generals leading the war effort.

While billing himself as the only US leader who can put an end to ISIL, Mr Trump has also pushed an isolationist military policy in the Middle East.

This isolationist bent has made him hesitant about committing additional troops to the war against ISIL. Yet at other times he suggested that tens of thousands of US soldiers would be needed to defeat the group and did not write off a large-scale troop deployment.

Syria

Mr Trump has dismissed questions about intervening in Syria by saying he was focused on combating ISIL and that while Syrian president Bashar Al Assad was not a friend, he was fighting ISIL as well.

Despite stating his opposition to intervention in Syria, Mr Trump said he supported the creation of safe zones for civilians in the country – areas that would presumably have to be protected militarily by the US or its allies.

His vice president-elect Mike Pence contradicted him, advocating a more aggressive Syria policy that would include no-fly zones, safe zones and even punitive strikes on the Syrian government. Mr Trump later said the two did not agree and that they had not discussed a plan for Syria in detail.

If he warms up to Russia, which backs the Assad government, Damascus and Moscow will see little reason to resume negotiations with Syrian rebels in the absence of US pressure.

Iran deal

The billionaire has called last year’s nuclear deal with Iran “one of the worst deals ever made by any country in history” and promised to “rip up” the agreement after taking office.

Tehran was quick to react to Mr Trump’s election, with president Hassan Rouhani saying the next US president did not have the authority to throw out the deal.

“Iran’s understanding in the nuclear deal was that the accord was not concluded with one country or government but was approved by a resolution of the UN Security Council and there is no possibility that it can be changed by a single government,” he said.

Iran’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif called on Mr Trump to stick to the agreement, which lifted international sanctions on Iran in return for limits on the country’s nuclear programme.

“The most important thing is that the future US president sticks to agreements, to engagements undertaken,” he said.

However, despite threats to throw out the deal, Mr Trump’s position on Iran remains unclear. He has said he would renegotiate the deal to make it more favourable to the US or “police” the existing deal.

His hostility toward Iran and publicly hard line on the nuclear deal could be tempered by Russia if the new president grows close to the Kremlin. In pushing for more power in the Middle East, Moscow has been increasingly friendly with Tehran and could be in a good position to mediate.

Israel-Palestine

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas’ office said they hoped that Mr Trump would work on Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts and the establishment of a Palestinian state.

“We are ready to deal with the elected president on the basis of a two-state solution and to establish a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders,” said spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeina. Failing to resolve the conflict, Mr Abu Rudeina said, would mean “the unstable situation will continue in the region”.

Mr Trump, however, has found immediate support from Israeli leaders who had a difficult relationship with president Barack Obama.

Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu congratulated him, calling him a “true friend” of Israel.

Education minister Naftali Bennett was more forthright, saying Mr Trump’s victory meant the “era of a Palestinian state is over”.

Mr Trump has won fans in Israel by saying that he would relocate the US embassy in the country from Tel Aviv to the contested city of Jerusalem – a highly controversial move that would see the US effectively recognise Jerusalem as belonging to Israel. While the US has always favoured its close ally in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, no president has seriously considered taking such a bold step.

Turkey

Mr Trump will also have an opportunity to restore fractured ties with Turkey, a key Nato ally and a partner in the war against ISIL. Relations have been strained by US support for Kurdish fighters in Syria and a coup attempt in July that some in Ankara accused the US of being complicit in.

The US and Turkey are planning an offensive to retake ISIL’s capital of Raqqa, but Ankara is finding it difficult to trust its US allies.

Congratulating Mr Trump, Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said he hoped Turkey could “reinforce with USA our strategic cooperation based on trust”.

Prime minister Benali Yildirim called on Mr Trump to extradite Fethullah Gulen, the Pennsylvania-based cleric Ankara blames for the failed coup.

While Mr Trump has hailed president Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s post-coup crackdown – which was widely condemned internationally – his anti-Islam rhetoric and proposed ban on Muslims entering the US could cause problems with the Islamist Turkish president.

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