A US-Iran deal is on the horizon and negotiations could begin as early as this year, a former US diplomat and intelligence officer said.
In a vindication of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure strategy, David Gordon, now a senior adviser at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said it was no longer a question of if Tehran returns to the negotiating table but when.
"Iran has to enter into negotiations," Mr Gordon told The National. "There's no way they can last five years".
Sanctions imposed by Washington after US President Donald Trump pulled out of an Obama-era deal limiting Tehran’s nuclear programme have hit the country hard.
Oil revenues have plunged, and high rates of inflation and a youth unemployment rate of 28.6 per cent have hit the spending power and financial security of the Iranian people.
In London, Mr Gordon said Mr Trump’s strong position heading into the presidential elections in November this year was one of the main reasons that a deal soon was more likely.
“If the Iranians perceive the election is not going to be competitive, there could be an opening to start negotiations as early as 2020,” he said.
Mr Trump's campaign has been buoyed by a strong US economy, dashing Iranian hopes for a more favourable negotiating partner.
The economy grew 2.3 per cent in 2019, and his campaign has seized on a low unemployment rate, about 3.6 per cent, as evidence that he has made good on his promise to "Make America great again".
Mr Trump has also gained from infighting among a crowded field of opposition candidates, with former vice president Joe Biden failing to get clear of his rivals in the race for the Democratic nomination.
Mr Gordon said killing Iran’s top military commander, Qassem Suleimani, in a US drone strike in Baghdad in January was a key factor in bringing Tehran to the negotiating table.
Taking out the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' foreign operations arm, the Quds Force, makes the prospect of a new deal much more likely.
“Suleimani was the key operational figure in Iran’s regional policy,” Mr Gordon said.
He said the general was a “leading voice” of Iran’s sceptical approach to US engagement before and during negotiations for the 2015 deal.
Although the IRGC was likely to intensify its antagonistic strategy towards the US in the region, Suleimani's absence will seriously limit Iran’s capabilities, Mr Gordon said.
“They’ve lost such a strategic figure.”
Mr Gordon said the US stance to minimise fallout from Iran’s retaliatory missile strikes on American bases in Iraq was laying the groundwork for a deal.
“President Trump gave the impression that the Asad [airbase in Iraq] attack was de-escalatory,” he said.
Straight after the attack it was suggested that Iran had deliberately missed its target to avoid US casualties.
“The picture presented by the US media and the Trump administration isn’t really accurate,” Mr Gordon said.
Other analysts have stressed the accuracy of Iran’s missile strikes.
Dara Massicot, a military analyst at the Rand Corporation, said in January that satellite imagery showed the strikes appeared to have been aimed at the base’s capability.
“When I see the impact points of Iran’s strike on Asad airbase, I don’t see purely symbolic strikes designed to avoid casualties, as some have speculated,” she said on Twitter.
On Tuesday the Pentagon said more than 100 US soldiers had been diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries from the attacks.
Reimposing crippling sanctions has increased tension dramatically and has set Washington and Tehran on a path of brinkmanship.
But last month, Mr Trump said: “The US is ready to embrace peace with all who seek it.”
But Tehran on Tuesday taunted the US as it marked the 41st anniversary of the ousting of the American-backed shah, Reza Pahlavi.
"In the past two years, America has put so much pressure on our beloved people, on all of our trade, all of our exports, all of our imports, and all of the country's needs, to exhaust the patience of our people," President Hassan Rouhani told a rally in the capital.
But "the Americans did not understand the greatness of the Iranian people".
"It is unbearable for the United States to accept the victory of a great nation and that a superpower has been driven out of this land."
Mr Gordon said that a future deal between Washington and Tehran would most likely involve a “meaningful extension” of the timeframe from the existing nuclear agreement, which was due to run until 2030.
Any deal would also cover the issue of Iran’s ballistic missile programme, including possible restrictions on shorter-range missiles such as those used to strike at US forces in Iraq last month.
But the most difficult part of a future deal, Mr Gordon said, would be a way to put “a floor under regional tensions” and monitor them.
History's medical milestones
1799 - First small pox vaccine administered
1846 - First public demonstration of anaesthesia in surgery
1861 - Louis Pasteur published his germ theory which proved that bacteria caused diseases
1895 - Discovery of x-rays
1923 - Heart valve surgery performed successfully for first time
1928 - Alexander Fleming discovers penicillin
1953 - Structure of DNA discovered
1952 - First organ transplant - a kidney - takes place
1954 - Clinical trials of birth control pill
1979 - MRI, or magnetic resonance imaging, scanned used to diagnose illness and injury.
1998 - The first adult live-donor liver transplant is carried out
If you go…
Emirates launched a new daily service to Mexico City this week, flying via Barcelona from Dh3,995.
Emirati citizens are among 67 nationalities who do not require a visa to Mexico. Entry is granted on arrival for stays of up to 180 days.
MATCH INFO
Manchester United 1 (Greenwood 77')
Everton 1 (Lindelof 36' og)
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Australia men's Test cricket fixtures 2021/22
One-off Test v Afghanistan:
Nov 27-Dec 1: Blundstone Arena, Hobart
The Ashes v England:
Dec 8-12: 1st Test, Gabba, Brisbane
Dec 16-20: 2nd Test, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide (day/night)
Dec 26-30: 3rd Test, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
Jan 5-9, 2022: 4th Test, Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney
Jan 14-18: 5th Test, Optus Stadium, Perth
GULF MEN'S LEAGUE
Pool A Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Exiles, Dubai Tigers 2
Pool B Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Jebel Ali Dragons, Dubai Knights Eagles, Dubai Tigers
Opening fixtures
Thursday, December 5
6.40pm, Pitch 8, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Knights Eagles
7pm, Pitch 2, Jebel Ali Dragons v Dubai Tigers
7pm, Pitch 4, Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Exiles
7pm, Pitch 5, Bahrain v Dubai Eagles 2
Recent winners
2018 Dubai Hurricanes
2017 Dubai Exiles
2016 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2015 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2014 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Continental champions
Best Asian Player: Massaki Todokoro (Japan)
Best European Player: Adam Wardzinski (Poland)
Best North & Central American Player: DJ Jackson (United States)
Best African Player: Walter Dos Santos (Angola)
Best Oceanian Player: Lee Ting (Australia)
Best South American Player: Gabriel De Sousa (Brazil)
Best Asian Federation: Saudi Jiu-Jitsu Federation
The%20Kitchen
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EDaniel%20Kaluuya%2C%20Kibwe%20Tavares%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%C2%A0%3C%2Fstrong%3EKane%20Robinson%2C%20Jedaiah%20Bannerman%2C%20Hope%20Ikpoku%20Jnr%2C%20Fiona%20Marr%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%203%2F5%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Unresolved crisis
Russia and Ukraine have been locked in a bitter conflict since 2014, when Ukraine’s Kremlin-friendly president was ousted, Moscow annexed Crimea and then backed a separatist insurgency in the east.
Fighting between the Russia-backed rebels and Ukrainian forces has killed more than 14,000 people. In 2015, France and Germany helped broker a peace deal, known as the Minsk agreements, that ended large-scale hostilities but failed to bring a political settlement of the conflict.
The Kremlin has repeatedly accused Kiev of sabotaging the deal, and Ukrainian officials in recent weeks said that implementing it in full would hurt Ukraine.
ESSENTIALS
The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Phnom Penh via Yangon from Dh2,700 return including taxes. Cambodia Bayon Airlines and Cambodia Angkor Air offer return flights from Phnom Penh to Siem Reap from Dh250 return including taxes. The flight takes about 45 minutes.
The hotels
Rooms at the Raffles Le Royal in Phnom Penh cost from $225 (Dh826) per night including taxes. Rooms at the Grand Hotel d'Angkor cost from $261 (Dh960) per night including taxes.
The tours
A cyclo architecture tour of Phnom Penh costs from $20 (Dh75) per person for about three hours, with Khmer Architecture Tours. Tailor-made tours of all of Cambodia, or sites like Angkor alone, can be arranged by About Asia Travel. Emirates Holidays also offers packages.
John%20Wick%3A%20Chapter%204
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Chad%20Stahelski%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Keanu%20Reeves%2C%20Laurence%20Fishburne%2C%20George%20Georgiou%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E4%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The Way It Was: My Life with Frank Sinatra by Eliot Weisman and Jennifer Valoppi
Hachette Books
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
ICC Women's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier 2025, Thailand
UAE fixtures
May 9, v Malaysia
May 10, v Qatar
May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
May 18 and 19, semi-finals
May 20, final
The major Hashd factions linked to Iran:
Badr Organisation: Seen as the most militarily capable faction in the Hashd. Iraqi Shiite exiles opposed to Saddam Hussein set up the group in Tehran in the early 1980s as the Badr Corps under the supervision of the Iran Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The militia exalts Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei but intermittently cooperated with the US military.
Saraya Al Salam (Peace Brigade): Comprised of former members of the officially defunct Mahdi Army, a militia that was commanded by Iraqi cleric Moqtada Al Sadr and fought US and Iraqi government and other forces between 2004 and 2008. As part of a political overhaul aimed as casting Mr Al Sadr as a more nationalist and less sectarian figure, the cleric formed Saraya Al Salam in 2014. The group’s relations with Iran has been volatile.
Kataeb Hezbollah: The group, which is fighting on behalf of the Bashar Al Assad government in Syria, traces its origins to attacks on US forces in Iraq in 2004 and adopts a tough stance against Washington, calling the United States “the enemy of humanity”.
Asaeb Ahl Al Haq: An offshoot of the Mahdi Army active in Syria. Asaeb Ahl Al Haq’s leader Qais al Khazali was a student of Mr Al Moqtada’s late father Mohammed Sadeq Al Sadr, a prominent Shiite cleric who was killed during Saddam Hussein’s rule.
Harakat Hezbollah Al Nujaba: Formed in 2013 to fight alongside Mr Al Assad’s loyalists in Syria before joining the Hashd. The group is seen as among the most ideological and sectarian-driven Hashd militias in Syria and is the major recruiter of foreign fighters to Syria.
Saraya Al Khorasani: The ICRG formed Saraya Al Khorasani in the mid-1990s and the group is seen as the most ideologically attached to Iran among Tehran’s satellites in Iraq.
(Source: The Wilson Centre, the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation)
Read more about the coronavirus
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
Getting%20there%20
%3Cp%3E%3Ca%20href%3D%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thenationalnews.com%2Ftravel%2F2023%2F01%2F12%2Fwhat-does-it-take-to-be-cabin-crew-at-one-of-the-worlds-best-airlines-in-2023%2F%22%20target%3D%22_self%22%3EEtihad%20Airways%20%3C%2Fa%3Eflies%20daily%20to%20the%20Maldives%20from%20Abu%20Dhabi.%20The%20journey%20takes%20four%20hours%20and%20return%20fares%20start%20from%20Dh3%2C995.%20Opt%20for%20the%203am%20flight%20and%20you%E2%80%99ll%20land%20at%206am%2C%20giving%20you%20the%20entire%20day%20to%20adjust%20to%20island%20time.%20%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERound%20trip%20speedboat%20transfers%20to%20the%20resort%20are%20bookable%20via%20Anantara%20and%20cost%20%24265%20per%20person.%20%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
If you go...
Etihad flies daily from Abu Dhabi to Zurich, with fares starting from Dh2,807 return. Frequent high speed trains between Zurich and Vienna make stops at St. Anton.
Dust and sand storms compared
Sand storm
- Particle size: Larger, heavier sand grains
- Visibility: Often dramatic with thick "walls" of sand
- Duration: Short-lived, typically localised
- Travel distance: Limited
- Source: Open desert areas with strong winds
Dust storm
- Particle size: Much finer, lightweight particles
- Visibility: Hazy skies but less intense
- Duration: Can linger for days
- Travel distance: Long-range, up to thousands of kilometres
- Source: Can be carried from distant regions
Sole survivors
- Cecelia Crocker was on board Northwest Airlines Flight 255 in 1987 when it crashed in Detroit, killing 154 people, including her parents and brother. The plane had hit a light pole on take off
- George Lamson Jr, from Minnesota, was on a Galaxy Airlines flight that crashed in Reno in 1985, killing 68 people. His entire seat was launched out of the plane
- Bahia Bakari, then 12, survived when a Yemenia Airways flight crashed near the Comoros in 2009, killing 152. She was found clinging to wreckage after floating in the ocean for 13 hours.
- Jim Polehinke was the co-pilot and sole survivor of a 2006 Comair flight that crashed in Lexington, Kentucky, killing 49.
Cheeseburger%20ingredients
%3Cp%3EPrice%20for%20a%20single%20burger%20%C2%A30.44%3Cbr%3EPrice%20for%20a%20single%20bun%20%C2%A30.17%3Cbr%3EPrice%20for%20a%20single%20cheese%20slice%20%C2%A30.04%3Cbr%3EPrice%20for%2010g%20Gherkins%20is%20less%20than%20%C2%A30.01%3Cbr%3EPrice%20for%2010g%20ketchup%20is%20less%20than%20%C2%A30.01%20%3Cbr%3EPrice%20for%2010g%20mustard%20is%20less%20than%20%C2%A30.01%3Cbr%3EPrice%20for%2010g%20onions%20is%20less%20than%20%C2%A30.01%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETotal%2068p%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECredit%3A%20Meal%20Delivery%20Experts%3C%2Fp%3E%0A