A small, rural district known for growing pomegranates may not seem like a key electoral battleground for Turkish politics, but the majority-Kurdish Suruc was never far from coverage during Sunday’s double election.
In the town and nearby villages, there were reported attempts to stuff ballots, attacks on independent observers, voters casting ballots on behalf of relatives and women, open voting, intimidation and fighting at polling stations in the province.
A car carrying four sacks of ballot papers was stopped by the police in the town, and later four people were arrested over alleged vote rigging.
It's not the first time the town has been the sight of accusations of vote-rigging. In last year’s referendum on the country’s transition to a presidential system, it was reported that in Suruc there were more votes counted than residents who were able to vote.
About half of Turkey’s estimated 16 million Kurds were thought to support President Recep Tayyip Erdogan prior to the election, hoping he would one day deliver peace to the impoverished region. The other half were thought to be behind the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP).
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Suruc, part of Sanliurfa province in the south-east of the country, has a large Kurdish population and has generally voted for Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP), but the HDP made inroads there in recent elections
The HDP voters in the town are amid a sea of support for the ruling AKP in the neighbouring area, meaning tensions run high. Prior to Sunday’s elections, four people were killed and 12 wounded in the town when a fight broke out between a group that included an AKP parliamentarian who was standing for office and local shopkeepers.
The southeast has been heavily affected by the decadeslong war between the government and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the state of emergency declared after an attempted coup in Turkey in 2016. Suruc suffered a bloody ISIS attack in 2015 that killed over 30 and wounded over 100 more.
The Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) blamed the government for not protecting the Kurdish people and it led to the end the breakdown of a two-and-a-half-year ceasefire, and the south-east suffered many deaths as a result.
In what may have been one of the most unfair elections in the country's history with the discourse on Kurds striking a worrying return to the past, the election will be tight run. And if the past says anything about what will happen in the event that Mr Erdogan does not secure his seat tonight, then Suruc and the Kurd’s of south eastern Turkey will likely bear the brunt of any instability.
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Virtuzone GCC Sixes
Date and venue Friday and Saturday, ICC Academy, Dubai Sports City
Time Matches start at 9am
Groups
A Blighty Ducks, Darjeeling Colts, Darjeeling Social, Dubai Wombats; B Darjeeling Veterans, Kuwait Casuals, Loose Cannons, Savannah Lions; C Awali Taverners, Darjeeling, Dromedary, Darjeeling Good Eggs
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
How to protect yourself when air quality drops
Install an air filter in your home.
Close your windows and turn on the AC.
Shower or bath after being outside.
Wear a face mask.
Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.
If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia