A woman stands on her balcony near a giant poster of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan reading, 'Vote Yes, only [the] public can speak and make decision', in Istanbul on March 29 2017. Tolga Bozoglu / EPA
A woman stands on her balcony near a giant poster of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan reading, 'Vote Yes, only [the] public can speak and make decision', in Istanbul on March 29 2017. Tolga BozoShow more

‘No’ campaigners find themselves victims of violence ahead of Turkey referendum



ISTANBUL // Just over two weeks remain before Turkey’s crucial April 16 constitutional referendum and campaigners on both the “Yes” and “No” sides have stepped up their efforts throughout the country. But those who oppose the proposed reforms say they are now facing not only heated verbal arguments but also physical violence on a frequent basis.

In recent weeks, campaigners have faced alleged police harassment and assaults in the street by fellow citizens – as well as a lack of coverage from many media outlets.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking to add another political victory with the referendum which, if it goes his way, will grant him even more power in a political system he already dominates. Critics of the constitutional changes say they are an open power grab which will pave the way for a “one-man” system. With the polls indicating the vote could go either way there is still all to play for, but the playing field is far from level.

The lavish “Yes” campaign is bolstered by state resources, and massive posters of Mr Erdogan and prime minister Binali Yildirim – whose job would ironically be eliminated in the event of a “Yes” vote – have been plastered on walls all over Istanbul.

But when 100 campaigners were out distributing “No” flyers round the Istanbul district of Kadikoy last month, the police sprayed them with tear gas and detained several of them. The campaigners, who say they were targeted for handing out the “No” flyers, claim police also drew their weapons and threatened to fire.

This was just one of dozens of incidents of violence against “No” campaigners in recent weeks in districts across Istanbul and throughout Turkey, according to media reports.

Another incident occurred on the main square of Istanbul’s Bakirkoy district earlier this month, when one person knocked flyers out of a “No” campaigner’s hand and then six others kicked and punched another campaigner who tried to intervene.

“No” campaigner Mehtap Turedioglu witnessed the attack but says she is determined to carry on.

"We're not scared at all," she told The National as she handed out pamphlets on the same square a few days later in Bakirkoy with a group of fellow "No" campaigners from the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).

Furkan Edepli, vice president of a local youth branch of Mr Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and an active “Yes” campaigner, condemned the reported attacks.

“These ugly people can be found in every country and from a number of different ideologies,” he said over tea inside an AKP referendum campaign tent in the centre of Istanbul’s bustling Besiktas district.

“If I encounter someone distributing “No” brochures, I don’t get in their way, and they don’t get in mine either. Everyone will continue working in an atmosphere of peace and brotherhood.”

He insisted all parties were able to campaign freely.

Directly across the Bosphorus in the conservative district of Uskudar, however, things appeared less rosy.

"Members of the AKP and the [far-right Nationalist Movement Party, or] MHP come here and call us terrorists," said Solmaz Acikkol, who spoke to The National while distributing "No" pamphlets on behalf of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP).

The government accuses the HDP of being linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Since being stripped of parliamentary immunity last year, a number of HDP members of parliament – including the party’s co-leaders – have been jailed on charges of supporting terror by the PKK. Other officials and supporters of the HDP have also been arrested on such charges.

"We are waging a difficult campaign and are being attacked everywhere," Ms Acikkol said. During the The National's five-minute conversation with Ms Acikkol, a young man lurked over her shoulders, scurrying off only after she put her hand in his face.

President Erdogan has not spared the country any of his famously divisive rhetoric in the months leading up to the referendum, and has said that voting “No” is tantamount to supporting terrorism, claiming that the PKK also favours a “No” result. The “Yes” camp is composed of an alliance between the AKP and the MHP, which has likened voting “Yes” to a show of support for national unity.

In addition to having successfully mobilised pre-existing nationalist sentiment, the “Yes” campaign also has the media in its corner. Figures from a study by the Unity for Democracy campaign show that between March 1 and March 20, the AKP and the office of the presidency were allocated a combined 470 hours across 17 national television channels for referendum campaigning. The CHP was granted a mere 45 hours, and the HDP not a single second.

This along with the police interventions and reported attacks have left “No” voters convinced that the dice are stacked against them.

“It’s not equal,” said CHP supporter Mehtap Turedioglu. “It’s an asymmetric campaign.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

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The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.

It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.

The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.

The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.

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Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.

Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.

But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.

Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.

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