The clear lead established by Shiite cleric Moqtada Al Sadr in preliminary results from Iraq's election is not the outcome Washington had hoped for, but is not the worst possible scenario either, experts say.
Final results are expected by Tuesday, but the rise of the renegade cleric is the emerging headline from Iraq’s fourth election since the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, and the first since the defeat of ISIS last year.
While Mr Al Sadr's victory is not a win for the United States, it is not one for Iran either, and Washington's focus now will be on coalition formation in the 329-seat-parliament, as neither Mr Al Sadr nor his rivals hold a clear majority, experts and former US officials told The National.
James Jeffrey, a former US ambassador to Iraq and a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: "The US has not had a good day in Iraq, because [its ally] Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi has had a bad day”.
But, he said: “Iran has not had a good day either, because [its allies] Nouri Al Maliki and Hadi Al Ameri did not make enough gains to form a governing coalition."
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Read more: Iraqi PM ready to 'cooperate' after election upset
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The preliminary results show the Sadrists getting about 54 seats, with Mr Al Ameri’s bloc coming second, and Mr Al Abadi a close third.
The rise of Mr Al Sadr is no surprise to Mr Jeffrey. Over the years, he has watched the religious nationalist leader build a movement that caters to working-class Shiites, but is at the heart of opposition to a US presence in Iraq.
“He has done fairly well in past elections, his troops fought against ISIS, the Sadrists are the most disciplined, and have done outreach to Iraqi Sunnis,” Mr Jeffrey said.
The main loser from the Sadrists’ comeback could be former prime minister Mr Al Maliki. Back in 2012, Mr Al Sadr formed an alliance with Ayad Allawi in an attempt to overthrow the then prime minister and Mr Al Sadr's Mahdi Army fought a war with Iraqi security forces under Mr Al Maliki in 2008.
The next step for Mr Al Sadr is to form a parliamentary coalition to pick a prime minister, although he himself is not eligible as he did not stand for election.
The cleric, who went into exile in Iran from 2008 to 2011, has recently built bridges with Iraq’s Arab neighbours. His visits to Saudi Arabia and the UAE last year combined with a nationalist message that resonates with Sunni tribes, could go a long way in helping him form a coalition.
“If the current results were to hold, Moqtada would be the big winner,” said Daniel Serwer, a scholar at the Middle East Institute.
"I also think Moqtada is more likely to join forces with Mr Al Abadi than with Mr Al Ameri, but it is far too early to predict the outcome of government formation negotiations," he told The National.
What does this all mean for the US? Mr Serwer said Washington “will need to swallow hard and accept it, especially if the alternative is an Abadi-Ameri or Moqtada-Ameri coalition”.
The main goal for the US post-election should be the inclusion of the Sunnis and the Kurds in the political process, said Mr Serwer.
For Mr Jeffrey, it should be containment of Iran and preventing Tehran from further entrenching itself in Iraqi politics.
A list of the animal rescue organisations in the UAE
The biog
Favourite book: Homegoing by Yaa Gyasi
Favourite holiday destination: Spain
Favourite film: Bohemian Rhapsody
Favourite place to visit in the UAE: The beach or Satwa
Children: Stepdaughter Tyler 27, daughter Quito 22 and son Dali 19
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Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
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The biog
Age: 35
Inspiration: Wife and kids
Favourite book: Changes all the time but my new favourite is Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman
Best Travel Destination: Bora Bora , French Polynesia
Favourite run: Jabel Hafeet, I also enjoy running the 30km loop in Al Wathba cycling track
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Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
The specs
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TOUCH RULES
Touch is derived from rugby league. Teams consist of up to 14 players with a maximum of six on the field at any time.
Teams can make as many substitutions as they want during the 40 minute matches.
Similar to rugby league, the attacking team has six attempts - or touches - before possession changes over.
A touch is any contact between the player with the ball and a defender, and must be with minimum force.
After a touch the player performs a “roll-ball” - similar to the play-the-ball in league - stepping over or rolling the ball between the feet.
At the roll-ball, the defenders have to retreat a minimum of five metres.
A touchdown is scored when an attacking player places the ball on or over the score-line.
Libya's Gold
UN Panel of Experts found regime secretly sold a fifth of the country's gold reserves.
The panel’s 2017 report followed a trail to West Africa where large sums of cash and gold were hidden by Abdullah Al Senussi, Qaddafi’s former intelligence chief, in 2011.
Cases filled with cash that was said to amount to $560m in 100 dollar notes, that was kept by a group of Libyans in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso.
A second stash was said to have been held in Accra, Ghana, inside boxes at the local offices of an international human rights organisation based in France.
Game Changer
Director: Shankar
Stars: Ram Charan, Kiara Advani, Anjali, S J Suryah, Jayaram
Rating: 2/5
Venom
Director: Ruben Fleischer
Cast: Tom Hardy, Michelle Williams, Riz Ahmed
Rating: 1.5/5