With just five days until its first parliamentary elections in almost a decade, Lebanon is facing the familiar prospect of its fate being dictated by the agendas of neighbouring states, rather than its own citizens. A political crisis and war with Israel could be the result.
At the centre of the dynamic is Hezbollah, with Israel's claim on Monday that Iran lied about its nuclear programme raising regional tension combined with its reputed strikes on Iranian military bases in Syria. The blowback from Tehran may manifest itself in Lebanon, experts and political parties fighting the election say, should US President Donald Trump cancel the 2015 agreement that reined in Iran's atomic activities.
As a tiny country bearing a huge humanitarian burden from the civil war in Syria, Lebanon’s leaders have somehow managed to keep a lid on the sectarian splits that permeate its politics, and prevented the fighting from spilling into its territory. Long the battleground for regional influence, nothing major happens in Beirut without a call from Tehran, Damascus or Riyadh. The country has also been a staging point for Middle East policy among western governments
Hezbollah, a Shiite militia-cum-political party, is part of the current Lebanese government despite its fighters being heavily involved in Syria as an Iranian proxy. But the forming of a new government - a process Hezbollah politicians and its allies are central to - after Sunday’s election may shatter the calm.
"If Trump scraps the deal do you think Iran is just going to sit there and take that? I don't think so," Mohanad Hage Ali, of the Carnegie Middle East Centre, told The National, saying the first political casualty could be Lebanon's Prime Minister, Saad Hariri.
Mr Trump, long critical of the nuclear agreement, is expected on or before a May 12 deadline to refuse to certify that Iran is in compliance.
“Iran will use Hezbollah to ramp up the tension if the nuclear deal folds. If that happens I don’t see Hariri returning as prime minister. It looks like we’re heading towards an escalation,” Mr Hage Ali said.
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Hezbollah blamed for attack on Lebanese election candidate
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Lebanon, after years of instability without a president, saw a new government formed in 2016 from a patchwork of seemingly contradictory alliances. Hezbollah backed Michel Aoun, a former general from the country’s Maronite Christian sect, as president in October 2016. And Mr Hariri, son of assassinated premier Rafik Hariri, in a shock endorsement of Mr Aoun ended the political vacuum by returning as prime minister weeks later. The election campaign has seen Mr Hariri, who heads a political grouping called the Future Movement, step up his criticism of Hezbollah, in a push to fend off increased competition for his core Sunni votes. He did so despite the working arrangement with Mr Aoun, who heads a different political party that has long been in alliance with Hezbollah.
The delicate balancing act could fall after May 12.
Salim Sayegh, a former government minister and vice president of Lebanon’s Kataeb Party, said Mr Hariri’s pact with Mr Aoun and Hezbollah had left him exposed to external powers, a reference to Iran.
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“They will break Hariri whenever they want,” Mr Sayegh said. “He was completely emptied of substance by the deal he struck with the Free Patriotic Movement,” the political party that Mr Aoun founded but no longer leads. “I think the US pressure on Iran via the nuclear deal will make it even harder for Mr Hariri to resort to moderate discourse with Hezbollah.”
The parliamentary polls, the first since 2009, have been billed as a chance for the Cedar nation to re-establish its identity. A new electoral law, based on proportional representation, was billed as an effort to give a better reflection of the country’s diverse sectarian communities and offer a better chance to non-establishment candidates. But the public appears largely apathetic – experts predict turnout of less than 50 per cent – seeing the ballot as more of the same.
Lebanon’s main constituencies of Christians, Shiites, Sunnis and Druze, have leaders who hold various alliances with Syria, Iran and Gulf states, reflecting the power of outside forces.
Mr Hariri, a Sunni, became premier for a second time in December 2016 despite his longstanding opposition to Hezbollah’s political and military role.
Hezbollah’s deep involvement in Syria, at Iran’s behest, contradicts Lebanon’s official doctrine of dissociation from regional conflicts. The paradox is again being raised in the election with Hezbollah facing opposition from some independent candidates in its traditional political heartlands of east and southern Lebanon, on the Israeli border.
Bassem Shabb, an MP and close ally of Mr Hariri, conceded that if America walked away from the nuclear deal in 11 days, it would add to the chances of a regional conflict. But he said Hezbollah was under too much pressure from its Shiite base, with resources having been diverted to fighting in Syria and away from social programmes at home, to bear the risks of military engagement with Israel.
“Hezbollah, because of Iran, is interlinked with the nuclear programme. There is no doubt about that,” he said. “But any confrontation with Israel would be suicide for the Shiites in Lebanon because the Israeli action would be much harsher than last time. Israel is just trying to push Iran back.”
Fifa%20World%20Cup%20Qatar%202022%20
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EFirst%20match%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ENovember%2020%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinal%2016%20round%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%203%20to%206%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EQuarter-finals%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%209%20and%2010%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESemi-finals%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%2013%20and%2014%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFinal%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EDecember%2018%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
2025 Fifa Club World Cup groups
Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.
Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.
Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.
Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.
Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.
Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.
Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.
Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.
Key facilities
- Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
- Premier League-standard football pitch
- 400m Olympic running track
- NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
- 600-seat auditorium
- Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
- An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
- Specialist robotics and science laboratories
- AR and VR-enabled learning centres
- Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
ICC Women's T20 World Cup Asia Qualifier 2025, Thailand
UAE fixtures
May 9, v Malaysia
May 10, v Qatar
May 13, v Malaysia
May 15, v Qatar
May 18 and 19, semi-finals
May 20, final
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Suggested picnic spots
Abu Dhabi
Umm Al Emarat Park
Yas Gateway Park
Delma Park
Al Bateen beach
Saadiyaat beach
The Corniche
Zayed Sports City
Dubai
Kite Beach
Zabeel Park
Al Nahda Pond Park
Mushrif Park
Safa Park
Al Mamzar Beach Park
Al Qudrah Lakes
The National's picks
4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
1971: The Year The Music Changed Everything
Director: Asif Kapadia
4/5
More coverage from the Future Forum
How has net migration to UK changed?
The figure was broadly flat immediately before the Covid-19 pandemic, standing at 216,000 in the year to June 2018 and 224,000 in the year to June 2019.
It then dropped to an estimated 111,000 in the year to June 2020 when restrictions introduced during the pandemic limited travel and movement.
The total rose to 254,000 in the year to June 2021, followed by steep jumps to 634,000 in the year to June 2022 and 906,000 in the year to June 2023.
The latest available figure of 728,000 for the 12 months to June 2024 suggests levels are starting to decrease.
'The worst thing you can eat'
Trans fat is typically found in fried and baked goods, but you may be consuming more than you think.
Powdered coffee creamer, microwave popcorn and virtually anything processed with a crust is likely to contain it, as this guide from Mayo Clinic outlines:
Baked goods - Most cakes, cookies, pie crusts and crackers contain shortening, which is usually made from partially hydrogenated vegetable oil. Ready-made frosting is another source of trans fat.
Snacks - Potato, corn and tortilla chips often contain trans fat. And while popcorn can be a healthy snack, many types of packaged or microwave popcorn use trans fat to help cook or flavour the popcorn.
Fried food - Foods that require deep frying — french fries, doughnuts and fried chicken — can contain trans fat from the oil used in the cooking process.
Refrigerator dough - Products such as canned biscuits and cinnamon rolls often contain trans fat, as do frozen pizza crusts.
Creamer and margarine - Nondairy coffee creamer and stick margarines also may contain partially hydrogenated vegetable oils.
Mercedes-AMG GT 63 S E Performance: the specs
Engine: 4.0-litre twin-turbo V8 plus rear-mounted electric motor
Power: 843hp at N/A rpm
Torque: 1470Nm N/A rpm
Transmission: 9-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 8.6L/100km
On sale: October to December
Price: From Dh875,000 (estimate)
UK's plans to cut net migration
Under the UK government’s proposals, migrants will have to spend 10 years in the UK before being able to apply for citizenship.
Skilled worker visas will require a university degree, and there will be tighter restrictions on recruitment for jobs with skills shortages.
But what are described as "high-contributing" individuals such as doctors and nurses could be fast-tracked through the system.
Language requirements will be increased for all immigration routes to ensure a higher level of English.
Rules will also be laid out for adult dependants, meaning they will have to demonstrate a basic understanding of the language.
The plans also call for stricter tests for colleges and universities offering places to foreign students and a reduction in the time graduates can remain in the UK after their studies from two years to 18 months.
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
What are the main cyber security threats?
Cyber crime - This includes fraud, impersonation, scams and deepfake technology, tactics that are increasingly targeting infrastructure and exploiting human vulnerabilities.
Cyber terrorism - Social media platforms are used to spread radical ideologies, misinformation and disinformation, often with the aim of disrupting critical infrastructure such as power grids.
Cyber warfare - Shaped by geopolitical tension, hostile actors seek to infiltrate and compromise national infrastructure, using one country’s systems as a springboard to launch attacks on others.
The five pillars of Islam