Egypt's military checks political popularity with Facebook poll



CAIRO // Egypt's military rulers have launched an online poll to test the popularity of potential presidential candidates, a move analysts said may be aimed at judging appetite for getting a former officer back in the post.

The list on Facebook includes at least four ex-military officers, alongside Islamists, judges, diplomats and others.

Most have declared they will run, including two former officers. Others named have not declared but are often cited by the media or the public as possible candidates, including former prime minister and air force commander Ahmed Shafiq and Omar Suleiman, former intelligence chief and briefly vice president.

The military supplied Egypt's rulers for the past six decades. A military council is acting as a transitional authority after Hosni Mubarak, a former air force chief, was driven out by protests on February 11.

The army has vowed to transfer power to civilians but many ordinary Egyptians question whether the army will be ready to go back to their barracks and accept civilian command.

Nabil Abdel Fattah, a researcher at Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, said: "This is meant to test the people's opinion to see if they would accept a candidate related to the military or not."

The army denies any plan to hold onto power after elections, first for parliament in September and then for the presidency.

The ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces said on the page that its initiative was aimed at "communicating with the great Egyptian people and the youth of the revolution".

Mr Abdel Fattah said: "There is an ongoing debate among Egyptians and political powers on the role of the army after elections that remains to be clarified. The army says it wants to be an independent body but does not explain what this means." At least 10 Egyptians have so far said they plan to run for president.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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