Three days of bloodshed – spurred by several deadly attacks and an ongoing militant offensive – have shaken the internationally-backed government in Kabul just weeks after an Eid ceasefire offered a glimmer of hope for a resolution to the country’s 17-year conflict.
After battles across the country, Thursday’s assault on an intelligence agency training centre in Kabul was just one more attack in a flurry that has drawn Ashraf Ghani’s Western-backed government into a battle to not only defend the Afghan people, but the very population centres under its control.
Taliban militants struck at will across the country, storming parts of a key city and overrunning two military bases elsewhere. The violence appears to represent a willingness from the group to push the United States to the table in an effort for long-wanted negotiations.
The death toll is thought to run to hundreds of troops, police and civilians, while 37 were also killed in the ISIS suicide bombing of a class for Shia students studying for college entrance exams.
In the largest Taliban attack, hundreds of fighters stormed parts of Ghazni, barely 80 miles south of Kabul, and spent five days in the city before they were forced out.
Taliban fighters stormed army bases in Faryab and Baghlan and dozens of soldiers were killed in each attack.
Dr Ghani's government has appeared complacent and unable to cope, apparently failing to heed warnings of impending attacks and leaving isolated units to their doom.
Thomas Ruttig, of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, said the attacks, only weeks after it emerged the Taliban had met United States envoys for preliminary talks in Qatar, appeared to be a jockeying for position in a bloody extension to negotiations.
After America had said it wanted to put the Taliban under pressure ahead of any talks, the militant movement had said Ghazni instead put the pressure on Washington.
The bloodshed was the outcome of the policy both the Taliban and US had decided on, he said, to talk and fight at the same time.
"I am afraid that is the logic of these kinds of wars and it does not necessarily mean that negotiations are impossible," Mr Ruttig told The National.
The attacks may not even necessarily derail hopes of a repeat ceasefire for Eid Al Adha next week, the analyst said. But any ceasefire had less long-term significance than the US decision to meet the Taliban and start to discuss conditions for troop withdrawal.
The Taliban appear unwilling to give up and the past week had shown they had a position of strength.
“That's why they may be willing to talk because they see they have the upper hand at the moment,” Mr Ruttig said.
But the reality for both sides remained that neither could force a military victory.
The past week's fighting, followed by a withdrawal in Ghazni, showed the Taliban has “reach, they are strong, they have the initiative, but they cannot win,” he added.
While the Taliban have appeared strong, Dr Ghani's government appeared more and more weak, said Haroun Mir, a Kabul-based analyst.
Infighting among the ranks of the national unity government and micro-management by Dr Ghani's palace were paralysing the country.
“We know that the Taliban haven't gained access to any game-changing weapons. They are only exploiting weakness within the Afghan government,” said Mr Mir.
The cold logic of fighting and talking means more attacks are likely as the Taliban tries to put itself in as strong a position as possible.
“By escalating the violence, the Taliban could be looking to gain an upper hand and negotiate more from a stronger position over the Afghan government and the foreign forces,” said Mr Hekmatullah Azamy, of Kabul's Centre for Conflict and Peace Studies.
Gen Ikramuddin Sare, police commander for the Baghlan-e-Markazi district where around 40 soldiers and police died on Wednesday, said he was still hopeful for a ceasefire.
“I am aware of how much my countrymen want a break in this constant fighting. We have been at war for almost 40 years and I do agree that ceasefire could be helpful,” he said.
“But I also feel that certain conditions need to be set for the Taliban. For instance, they shouldn’t be allowed to enter the cities carrying guns or other weapons. They also shouldn't be allowed to carry their flags and they shouldn’t gather in large groups”.
But as Kabul on Thursday buried young men and women killed in the suicide bombing, the prospect of peace negotiations and ceasefires seemed cruelly remote to many.
"Death to your ceasefire and death to your ghost peace talks," one mourner told reporters in the capital.
'Joker'
Directed by: Todd Phillips
Starring: Joaquin Phoenix
Rating: Five out of five stars
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How to avoid crypto fraud
- Use unique usernames and passwords while enabling multi-factor authentication.
- Use an offline private key, a physical device that requires manual activation, whenever you access your wallet.
- Avoid suspicious social media ads promoting fraudulent schemes.
- Only invest in crypto projects that you fully understand.
- Critically assess whether a project’s promises or returns seem too good to be true.
- Only use reputable platforms that have a track record of strong regulatory compliance.
- Store funds in hardware wallets as opposed to online exchanges.
Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
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What is type-1 diabetes
Type 1 diabetes is a genetic and unavoidable condition, rather than the lifestyle-related type 2 diabetes.
It occurs mostly in people under 40 and a result of the pancreas failing to produce enough insulin to regulate blood sugars.
Too much or too little blood sugar can result in an attack where sufferers lose consciousness in serious cases.
Being overweight or obese increases the chances of developing the more common type 2 diabetes.
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The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE.
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Cryopreservation: A timeline
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- In April 2021, Hayah Insurance unveiled a workplace savings plan to help UAE employees save for their retirement.
- Lunate, an Abu Dhabi-based investment manager, has launched a fund that will allow UAE private companies to offer employees investment returns on end-of-service benefits.
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German intelligence warnings
- 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
- 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
- 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250
Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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