Iran's two main opposition leaders are planning an emergency meeting this week to revise strategy after the regime proved it has learnt how to prevent anti-government protesters from gatecrashing key dates in the country's calendar.
"We want to maintain our peaceful demands in accordance with the constitution. But we don't want the people to pay the high price," Mehdi Karrubi, the opposition's most outspoken leader, told the British Sunday Telegraph newspaper.
His remark was an acknowledgement that opposition supporters, no matter how resolved and resilient, cannot be expected to keep taking to the streets, risking broken bones, arrest and possible death sentences, without seeing concrete political results.
Some analysts predict that the opposition may now move away from large street marches in favour of strikes and boycotts.
Mr Karrubi said he would meet, probably this week, with Mir Hossein Mousavi, the man millions of Iranians believe was the real winner of last June's disputed presidential elections, to discuss the way forward.
The opposition suffered a demoralising setback last Thursday when its much-touted plans to hijack state-sponsored rallies marking the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution were snuffed out with relative ease and apparently little bloodshed by the regime, which has a firm grip on the levers of power.
Opposition leaders had raised high expectations, predicting a record protest turnout that could tilt the stalemated balance of power with the regime in their favour.
Anti-government protesters had until then scored several notable successes by taking to the streets in huge numbers on other emotive anniversaries - a key tactic since June's disputed re-election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
But it was a tactic that telegraphed the opposition's plans to the authorities and pro-democracy demonstrators have paid a high price.
Thousands have been arrested since June, scores killed, two executed and others given long jail terms after summary mass trials.
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, boasted that last week's events were a "wake-up call to domestic enemies and deceived groups who claim to represent the people".
Some western analysts joined in with claims that the opposition, which is a broad tent that lacks charismatic leaders, had suffered a crippling, even potentially fatal, blow.
But most Iran experts insist that predictions of the green movement's demise are woefully premature.
"The opposition may have suffered a tactical defeat, but this fight is far from over," said Trita Parsi, president of the National Iranian American Council. "The government has prevented one major protest from taking place, but there is no sign that the will of the opposition has been broken.
"All the opposition has to do is to survive - the real question is for how long the government can set aside so many resources to prevent people from expressing their dissent."
Others also argued that the regime's victory on Thursday was Pyrrhic and achieved solely by negative means.
The government managed to fill a Tehran square with hundreds of thousands of its flag-waving supporters and matched this ostensible show of popular support with one of its biggest security operations in years.
Information is now emerging, however, that "the government-organised rally was pretty mediocre given the organisation that went into it", said Ali Ansari, a professor of Iranian history at St Andrew's University in Scotland.
"Had they [the opposition] called for a boycott rather than a huge outpouring of demonstrators, we wouldn't be discussing the demise of the green movement, an idea which is hugely premature and misunderstands fundamentally what is going on," Mr Ansari, one of the leading Iran experts in Britain, said.
Taking pre-emptive action, the authorities also rounded up scores of student and other activists who would have organised the protests at a grass-roots level. Mobile phone, internet and text messaging services were disrupted to prevent demonstrators mobilising and co-ordinating.
"For any regime, especially one that claims to be a popular republic based on Islam, pointing TV cameras at the right-looking crowd while beating the 'wrong crowd' with all its might, especially on the anniversary of its formation, is not a victory," wrote a guest analyst, under a pseudonym, on Enduring America, a blog on US foreign policy with expert Iran coverage.
Mr Karrubi said there were no upcoming rallies planned, but he told yesterday's Telegraph that the opposition would seek permission, in accordance with the constitution, to hold a "peaceful demonstration, in order to show the people's support for our movement".
The opposition is confident that if its supporters are allowed to assemble freely, they can mount a far bigger show of popular support than the turnout orchestrated by the regime on Thursday.
Implicitly threatening a campaign of nationwide civil disobedience, Mr Karrubi added: "If they don't let us have that, we will have to try different methods to talk and educate the people about the peace movement and extend it to the whole country."
Insisting the opposition's leadership would not "back away from people's rights", Mr Karrubi reiterated the "green movement's" relatively modest demands: the unconditional release of political prisoners, fair elections and a free press.
How the regime responds to its most serious challenge in decades depends largely on the supreme leader. Chants of "death to the dictator" may have chastened him in recent weeks - or he may prove hubristic and uncompromising after Thursday's perceived victory by the regime, analysts said.
Ayatollah Khamenei has refused to make concessions under pressure, but may be willing to compromise if he believes he now has the upper hand, they added.
Opposition leaders have sent Ayatollah Khamenei conciliatory signals in recent weeks, insisting that they are not contesting his position, although they continue to view Mr Ahmadinejad's government as illegitimate.
The president is being challenged not only by the opposition but by influential pragmatic conservatives, some of them close to the supreme leader. They are critical of Mr Ahmadinejad's handling of the post-election crisis and stridently opposed his management of the country's troubled economy.
Mr Ahmadinejad had less than 24 hours to savour his supposed victory last Thursday when a prominent conservative parliamentarian, Ali Mottahari, proclaimed: "We cannot claim the crisis is totally over until both sides make up for their mistakes."
The deputy, a close ally of the parliamentary speaker, Ali Larijani, who is a bitter conservative critic of the president, went on to echo Mr Karrubi. "The government should respect social freedoms and stop its press bans," Mr Mottahari said. "It should also take action to secure the release of political prisoners and create a climate of friendship and affection."
Among other strategies, Mr Karrubi and Mr Mousavi this week can be expected to explore the possibility of making common cause with such pragmatic hardliners.
mtheodoulou@thenational.ae
Four motivational quotes from Alicia's Dubai talk
“The only thing we need is to know that we have faith. Faith and hope in our own dreams. The belief that, when we keep going we’re going to find our way. That’s all we got.”
“Sometimes we try so hard to keep things inside. We try so hard to pretend it’s not really bothering us. In some ways, that hurts us more. You don’t realise how dishonest you are with yourself sometimes, but I realised that if I spoke it, I could let it go.”
“One good thing is to know you’re not the only one going through it. You’re not the only one trying to find your way, trying to find yourself, trying to find amazing energy, trying to find a light. Show all of yourself. Show every nuance. All of your magic. All of your colours. Be true to that. You can be unafraid.”
“It’s time to stop holding back. It’s time to do it on your terms. It’s time to shine in the most unbelievable way. It’s time to let go of negativity and find your tribe, find those people that lift you up, because everybody else is just in your way.”
The specs
Engine: Four electric motors, one at each wheel
Power: 579hp
Torque: 859Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh825,900
On sale: Now
Why seagrass matters
- Carbon sink: Seagrass sequesters carbon up to 35X faster than tropical rainforests
- Marine nursery: Crucial habitat for juvenile fish, crustations, and invertebrates
- Biodiversity: Support species like sea turtles, dugongs, and seabirds
- Coastal protection: Reduce erosion and improve water quality
Call of Duty: Black Ops 6
Developer: Treyarch, Raven Software
Publisher: Activision
Console: PlayStation 4 & 5, Windows, Xbox One & Series X/S
Rating: 3.5/5
Labour dispute
The insured employee may still file an ILOE claim even if a labour dispute is ongoing post termination, but the insurer may suspend or reject payment, until the courts resolve the dispute, especially if the reason for termination is contested. The outcome of the labour court proceedings can directly affect eligibility.
- Abdullah Ishnaneh, Partner, BSA Law
The specs
Engine: 1.5-litre turbo
Power: 181hp
Torque: 230Nm
Transmission: 6-speed automatic
Starting price: Dh79,000
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Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Yemen's Bahais and the charges they often face
The Baha'i faith was made known in Yemen in the 19th century, first introduced by an Iranian man named Ali Muhammad Al Shirazi, considered the Herald of the Baha'i faith in 1844.
The Baha'i faith has had a growing number of followers in recent years despite persecution in Yemen and Iran.
Today, some 2,000 Baha'is reside in Yemen, according to Insaf.
"The 24 defendants represented by the House of Justice, which has intelligence outfits from the uS and the UK working to carry out an espionage scheme in Yemen under the guise of religion.. aimed to impant and found the Bahai sect on Yemeni soil by bringing foreign Bahais from abroad and homing them in Yemen," the charge sheet said.
Baha'Ullah, the founder of the Bahai faith, was exiled by the Ottoman Empire in 1868 from Iran to what is now Israel. Now, the Bahai faith's highest governing body, known as the Universal House of Justice, is based in the Israeli city of Haifa, which the Bahais turn towards during prayer.
The Houthis cite this as collective "evidence" of Bahai "links" to Israel - which the Houthis consider their enemy.
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Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
The Brutalist
Director: Brady Corbet
Stars: Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, Joe Alwyn
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs: 2018 Maserati Ghibli
Price, base / as tested: Dh269,000 / Dh369,000
Engine: 3.0-litre twin-turbocharged V6
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Power: 355hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 500Nm @ 4,500rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 8.9L / 100km
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THE%20SPECS
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CONFIRMED%20LINE-UP
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The Buckingham Murders
Starring: Kareena Kapoor Khan, Ash Tandon, Prabhleen Sandhu
Director: Hansal Mehta
Rating: 4 / 5
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Where to submit a sample
Volunteers of all ages can submit DNA samples at centres across Abu Dhabi, including: Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (Adnec), Biogenix Labs in Masdar City, NMC Royal Hospital in Khalifa City, NMC Royal Medical Centre, Abu Dhabi, NMC Royal Women's Hospital, Bareen International Hospital, Al Towayya in Al Ain, NMC Specialty Hospital, Al Ain
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
The smuggler
Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple.
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.
Khouli conviction
Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.
For sale
A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.
- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico
- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000
- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Results
Stage 7:
1. Caleb Ewan (AUS) Lotto Soudal - 3:18:29
2. Sam Bennett (IRL) Deceuninck-QuickStep - same time
3. Phil Bauhaus (GER) Bahrain Victorious
4. Michael Morkov (DEN) Deceuninck-QuickStep
5. Cees Bol (NED) Team DSM
General Classification:
1. Tadej Pogacar (SLO) UAE Team Emirates - 24:00:28
2. Adam Yates (GBR) Ineos Grenadiers - 0:00:35
3. Joao Almeida (POR) Deceuninck-QuickStep - 0:01:02
4. Chris Harper (AUS) Jumbo-Visma - 0:01:42
5. Neilson Powless (USA) EF Education-Nippo - 0:01:45
The%20specs
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TYPES%20OF%20ONLINE%20GIG%20WORK
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Killing of Qassem Suleimani
England-South Africa Test series
1st Test England win by 211 runs at Lord's, London
2nd Test South Africa win by 340 runs at Trent Bridge, Nottingham
3rd Test July 27-31 at The Oval, London
4th Test August 4-8 at Old Trafford, Manchester
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
What are the influencer academy modules?
- Mastery of audio-visual content creation.
- Cinematography, shots and movement.
- All aspects of post-production.
- Emerging technologies and VFX with AI and CGI.
- Understanding of marketing objectives and audience engagement.
- Tourism industry knowledge.
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Bawaal%20
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