ISIS has spent the last year seeking to regenerate. In this four-part special, The National analyses its strategy for global growth, explores its use of obscure social media platforms, and reveals its profiteering from elephant poaching and the gems trade. Here, Thomas Harding investigates how the extremist group has gained a foothold in Africa.
ISIS has regenerated with a strong presence across at least 11 countries with military-grade weapons and large fighting factions in six African, three Middle East and two Asian countries.
In recent weeks it has sent troops in formations of hundreds to conduct assaults on civilian settlements.
Using well-practised camouflage skills, a force of 300 extremists slipped across the Ravuma River to invade Tanzania in mid-October.
Within hours the gunmen overwhelmed the local security and entered the small town of Kitaya, murdering citizens at will.
The assault demonstrated the growing boldness and ability of the IS Central Africa Province, which is based in Mozambique with ambitions to establish itself across the region.
It has a "direct line of communication" to ISIS commanders in the Middle East, who are encouraging the drive to build strongholds across Africa, The National has found as part of an investigation into ISIS's global resurgence.
Despite being defeated in Syria and Iraq, and suffering the loss of its leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi in a US special forces raid a year ago, the group has not fallen into disarray.
In fact, ISIS is now seeking to establish bases across sub-Sahara Africa in at least six countries – Mozambique, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Nigeria.
Officials admit it has not been completely wiped out in its former strongholds of Iraq and Syria, while the terrorist group is on the rise in Egypt.
It has fully fledged operations in Afghanistan and the Philippines, while neighbouring countries have also reported sporadic attacks.
The Africa-based insurgents have been in direct contact with ISIS, even in the middle of attacks as the group as a whole seeks to maximise propaganda from its actions.
The capabilities of the Mozambique terrorists has risen sharply.
As well as the Tanzania raid, which was launched on October 14, there was an audacious takeover of one of the country's strategic ports.
The seizure of Mocímboa da Praia in the summer was followed by the takeover of at least four tourist islands off the coast in September.
All are believed to be taking place under the co-ordination or approval of ISIS commanders in Iraq.
The National's investigation found that after a series of successful attacks there are concerns that the terrorist group is aiming for Cabo Delgado, in northern Mozambique.
The area has attracted significant foreign investment after the discovery of an estimated $50 billion worth of natural gas and ruby deposits.
Intelligence analysts have reported a “drastic increase in sophistication” in the Mozambique extremists' planning and attacks.
“Does this mean it is Islamic State-directed?” asked Jasmine Opperman, of the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project,
"We don’t know but that there is a foreign influence at play cannot be denied.
ISCAP is thought to have up to 1,000 insurgents.
Its fighters are now capable of reasonably accurate mortar attacks and co-ordinated infantry tactics, and have adapted rocket-propelled grenades to sink ships.
Direct line of communication between ISCAP and ISIS
“If you look at a quick manner in which certain claims are issued, the details that accompany it, it tells you that they have a direct line of communication without a shadow of doubt,” said Ms Opperman, who was a South African intelligence operative for 17 years.
“And they will do it by whatever means available, whether through secure messaging apps or cell phones.”
Communications between the Mozambique militants and ISIS are goin on even during attacks, security experts said.
“There are indicators during attacks of an alignment to the Islamic State,” a western security source said.
“It comes from the translation into Arabic that happens on their posts. It is a strong indication that we cannot ignore the ISIS presence.”
There have been reports of Qatari financial involvement although analysts said this could not be verified.
Speaking to The National, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson specifically warned this month of "an ever-present threat" from ISIS.
Mr Johnson urged that the world did "not become complacent just because their barbaric acts have retreated from the headlines”.
“The dregs of this terrorist network continue to intimidate liberated communities, bring new misery in other parts of the world and plot violence against us all,” he said.
“Our military partners are relentlessly hunting down Daesh remnants, with strong backing from the Global Coalition.
"Britain will keep the pressure up by starving Daesh of cash, exposing its warped propaganda and helping to rebuild the communities it devastated.
"We will not relent until they are consigned to the ash heap of history.”
Among the ranks of its Mozambique offshoot are foreign fighters who are reportedly veterans from the ISIS reign of terror in Syria and Iraq.
These fighters, nicknamed the "Taliban" by locals and probably from Pakistan, are able to instruct local fighters in bomb-making and torture methods.
Beheadings have already been widely reported in the region.
The insurgents have gone from being using baseball bats and machetes to forming well-co-ordinated units using AK-47s, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars, with analysts noting an increase in infantry skills.
Another tactic adapted from the Middle East conflict is the use of government uniforms as a way of gaining entry to checkpoints and bases.
The terrorists have also been leaving ISIS graffiti after operations.
This all points to evidence of advice and training coming from the Middle East, analysts believe.
There is also growing evidence of links with other ISIS-connected terrorist groups in Africa for more co-ordinated action.
The ADF are causing a lot of trouble in eastern Congo and there is a potential suggestion of ties to extremists
The Allied Democratic Forces, originally formed to create an "Islamic" state in Congo and western Uganda, is reported to be in contact with Mozambique insurgents.
“A source has warned me that communication is taking place between the ADF and Mozambique militants,” Ms Opperman said.
“Even though it’s a resource war in Congo I was told that the ADF are getting more into the Islamic State arena.”
A security contractor recently returned from the DRC said he had also heard evidence of the ties.
“The ADF are causing a lot of trouble in eastern Congo and there is a potential suggestion of ties to extremists,” said Tom Barry, of the Akkadian International security group.
“So far they’ve been mainly attacking Ebola clinics, Red Cross vehicles and fighting the Rwandan army on the frontier.
"The terrorists are sent money, which buys their loyalty and leads to a spike in regional violence.”
It has been previously reported that an ISIS financier has provided money to the ADF.
There are as yet no reports of terrorists moving between African countries, apart from Mozambique across its border with South Africa.
But it is understood that ISIS-affiliated groups are using encrypted apps to send voice messages or exchange ideas.
Intelligence agencies are concerned that key terrorists skills, learnt from ISIS's experience in Iraq and Syria, could be passed on and co-ordinated attacks made across southern, central and western Africa.
A worrying picture is also emerging in the failing west African states of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, where ISIS is growing in influence.
Extremists have taken over “ungoverned space” in the border area where the three countries meet, expelling criminal gangs and replacing them with their own form of violence.
ISIS interposes amid government entropy
Dr Francesco Milan, a lecturer in violent extremism at King's College London, warned that the border region of the Mali-Burkina Faso-Niger triangle was falling into the hands of ISIS.
The government has basically lost control of the border areas
“The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara has been stepping up its presence, expanding its activities and even competing with Al Qaeda-affiliated groups already operating in the area,” Dr Milan said.
Mr Barry said: “The government has basically lost control of the border areas and ISIS has slotted in as the people who bring law and order, even though it's very bad for the locals.
“Burkina Faso can't control that main route, going north-east towards Niger so the area is lawless.”
The group generates its funds through trafficking illegal immigrants through the Sahara Desert in Niger and into Libya.
“Most of the money for trafficking is spent on the Africa side, not Europe, and it costs an enormous amount to travel in a caravan through the Sahara,” Mr Barry said.
“And if you stop paying you're basically stuck wherever you run out of money.”
Security sources believe that while western countries are unlikely to become overtly involved in failing countries, they are providing small numbers of special forces that in some cases “hold the line” between ISIS and total government collapse.
GOLF’S RAHMBO
- 5 wins in 22 months as pro
- Three wins in past 10 starts
- 45 pro starts worldwide: 5 wins, 17 top 5s
- Ranked 551th in world on debut, now No 4 (was No 2 earlier this year)
- 5th player in last 30 years to win 3 European Tour and 2 PGA Tour titles before age 24 (Woods, Garcia, McIlroy, Spieth)
COMPANY PROFILE
● Company: Bidzi
● Started: 2024
● Founders: Akshay Dosaj and Asif Rashid
● Based: Dubai, UAE
● Industry: M&A
● Funding size: Bootstrapped
● No of employees: Nine
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
The Bio
Favourite vegetable: “I really like the taste of the beetroot, the potatoes and the eggplant we are producing.”
Holiday destination: “I like Paris very much, it’s a city very close to my heart.”
Book: “Das Kapital, by Karl Marx. I am not a communist, but there are a lot of lessons for the capitalist system, if you let it get out of control, and humanity.”
Musician: “I like very much Fairuz, the Lebanese singer, and the other is Umm Kulthum. Fairuz is for listening to in the morning, Umm Kulthum for the night.”
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Director: James Cameron
Starring: Sam Worthington, Sigourney Weaver, Zoe Saldana
Rating: 4.5/5
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
Points to remember
- Debate the issue, don't attack the person
- Build the relationship and dialogue by seeking to find common ground
- Express passion for the issue but be aware of when you're losing control or when there's anger. If there is, pause and take some time out.
- Listen actively without interrupting
- Avoid assumptions, seek understanding, ask questions
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Rain Management
Year started: 2017
Based: Bahrain
Employees: 100-120
Amount raised: $2.5m from BitMex Ventures and Blockwater. Another $6m raised from MEVP, Coinbase, Vision Ventures, CMT, Jimco and DIFC Fintech Fund
57%20Seconds
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The biog
First Job: Abu Dhabi Department of Petroleum in 1974
Current role: Chairperson of Al Maskari Holding since 2008
Career high: Regularly cited on Forbes list of 100 most powerful Arab Businesswomen
Achievement: Helped establish Al Maskari Medical Centre in 1969 in Abu Dhabi’s Western Region
Future plan: Will now concentrate on her charitable work
SPEC%20SHEET%3A%20SAMSUNG%20GALAXY%20S24%20ULTRA
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Qosty Byogaani
Starring: Hani Razmzi, Maya Nasir and Hassan Hosny
Four stars
AWARDS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20Male%20black%20belt%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELucas%20Protasio%20(BRA)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20female%20black%20belt%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EJulia%20Alves%20(BRA)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20Masters%20black%20belt%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Igor%20Silva%20(BRA)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20Asian%20Jiu-Jitsu%20Federation%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Kazakhstan%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20Academy%20in%20UAE%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ECommando%20Group%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBest%20International%20Academy%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Commando%20Group%2C%20Abu%20Dhabi%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAfrican%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EKatiuscia%20Yasmira%20Dias%20(GNB)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EOceanian%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAnton%20Minenko%20(AUS)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EEuropean%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rose%20El%20Sharouni%20(NED)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ENorth%20and%20Central%20American%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EAlexa%20Yanes%20(USA)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EAsian%20Player%20of%20the%20Year%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EZayed%20Al%20Katheeri%20(UAE)%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERookie%20of%20the%20Year%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Rui%20Neto%20(BRA)Rui%20Neto%20(BRA)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
UAE v Gibraltar
What: International friendly
When: 7pm kick off
Where: Rugby Park, Dubai Sports City
Admission: Free
Online: The match will be broadcast live on Dubai Exiles’ Facebook page
UAE squad: Lucas Waddington (Dubai Exiles), Gio Fourie (Exiles), Craig Nutt (Abu Dhabi Harlequins), Phil Brady (Harlequins), Daniel Perry (Dubai Hurricanes), Esekaia Dranibota (Harlequins), Matt Mills (Exiles), Jaen Botes (Exiles), Kristian Stinson (Exiles), Murray Reason (Abu Dhabi Saracens), Dave Knight (Hurricanes), Ross Samson (Jebel Ali Dragons), DuRandt Gerber (Exiles), Saki Naisau (Dragons), Andrew Powell (Hurricanes), Emosi Vacanau (Harlequins), Niko Volavola (Dragons), Matt Richards (Dragons), Luke Stevenson (Harlequins), Josh Ives (Dubai Sports City Eagles), Sean Stevens (Saracens), Thinus Steyn (Exiles)
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Lexus LX700h specs
Engine: 3.4-litre twin-turbo V6 plus supplementary electric motor
Power: 464hp at 5,200rpm
Torque: 790Nm from 2,000-3,600rpm
Transmission: 10-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 11.7L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh590,000
Squads
Australia: Finch (c), Agar, Behrendorff, Carey, Coulter-Nile, Lynn, McDermott, Maxwell, Short, Stanlake, Stoinis, Tye, Zampa
India: Kohli (c), Khaleel, Bumrah, Chahal, Dhawan, Shreyas, Karthik, Kuldeep, Bhuvneshwar, Pandey, Krunal, Pant, Rahul, Sundar, Umesh
How to donate
Send “thenational” to the following numbers or call the hotline on: 0502955999
2289 – Dh10
2252 – Dh 50
6025 – Dh20
6027 – Dh 100
6026 – Dh 200
The Settlers
Director: Louis Theroux
Starring: Daniella Weiss, Ari Abramowitz
Rating: 5/5
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
The Voice of Hind Rajab
Starring: Saja Kilani, Clara Khoury, Motaz Malhees
Director: Kaouther Ben Hania
Rating: 4/5
The White Lotus: Season three
Creator: Mike White
Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell
Rating: 4.5/5
In-demand jobs and monthly salaries
- Technology expert in robotics and automation: Dh20,000 to Dh40,000
- Energy engineer: Dh25,000 to Dh30,000
- Production engineer: Dh30,000 to Dh40,000
- Data-driven supply chain management professional: Dh30,000 to Dh50,000
- HR leader: Dh40,000 to Dh60,000
- Engineering leader: Dh30,000 to Dh55,000
- Project manager: Dh55,000 to Dh65,000
- Senior reservoir engineer: Dh40,000 to Dh55,000
- Senior drilling engineer: Dh38,000 to Dh46,000
- Senior process engineer: Dh28,000 to Dh38,000
- Senior maintenance engineer: Dh22,000 to Dh34,000
- Field engineer: Dh6,500 to Dh7,500
- Field supervisor: Dh9,000 to Dh12,000
- Field operator: Dh5,000 to Dh7,000
Profile
Company name: Marefa Digital
Based: Dubai Multi Commodities Centre
Number of employees: seven
Sector: e-learning
Funding stage: Pre-seed funding of Dh1.5m in 2017 and an initial seed round of Dh2m in 2019
Investors: Friends and family
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
COMPANY%20PROFILE
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