Scottish town watches nervously as election looms


Tim Stickings
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For John Elliot, the town of Coldstream where he was born and raised is Scotland’s "only authentic border town”, a historic crossroads between England and Scotland on the scenic banks of the River Tweed.

The nearly invisible boundary on Coldstream Bridge is suddenly up for discussion. Depending on the outcome of elections next week, a "hard border" with customs checks at the gateway to an independent Scotland could be in prospect.

If it came to pass, Mr Elliot fears that the town’s unique character could be eroded.

“The history of this place is of to-ing and fro-ing all the time,” said Mr Elliot, 76, the chairman of Coldstream’s local history society. "The animosity that exists further north in Scotland towards the English doesn’t exist here.

“I would think that it would change that whole attitude if there were a hard border here."

Coldstream, a town of about 2,000 people on the Scottish side of the river, would be on the front line of Europe’s newest international border if Scotland voted for independence.

Voters go to the polls in a Scottish Parliament election on Thursday, with the ruling Scottish National Party seeking a mandate for its calls for a second independence referendum in a generation.

John Elliot, the chairman of Coldstream's local history society. Stuart Boulton for The National
John Elliot, the chairman of Coldstream's local history society. Stuart Boulton for The National

A community that straddles the border 

Many people in Coldstream cross the border regularly because they live on one side of the river and work on the other.

Louisa Coates, 54, runs a shop called the Old Post Office Flower Room in Coldstream, but her home is on the English side of the border.

Her doctor is in Scotland and her dentist in England, and ambulances habitually cross the border to take patients in England to a Scottish hospital.

She worries that a hard border could affect her flower shop, which she opened in 2019 not long before the onset of the pandemic.

“If there’s a hard border, does that mean my deliveries don’t get here on time?” she asked.

But she voiced hope that the restrictions might be minimal. “If there’s no border control, then it wouldn’t make any difference at all."

Louisa Coates outside her shop, the Old Post Office Flower Room, on Coldstream High Street. Stuart Boulton for The National
Louisa Coates outside her shop, the Old Post Office Flower Room, on Coldstream High Street. Stuart Boulton for The National

Covid-19 made the border more noticeable than usual because England and Scotland each set their own lockdown policies.

Until April 26, non-essential travel from Scotland to England was banned under coronavirus restrictions imposed in December.

Trevor Brunning, 57, the owner of an army surplus shop called Walk This Way, said he had noticed a decline in business when pandemic-related travel restrictions were in force.

A permanent hard border would make things worse. “It goes without saying, it would be a disaster,” he said. “It’s a nightmare.”

Locals see Coldstream as a stronghold of the anti-independence movement, or unionists.

When Scotland rejected independence at the referendum in 2014, 67 per cent of voters in the Scottish Borders region were opposed to the idea.

Trevor Brunning at his 'Walk This Way' army surplus store on Coldstream High Street. Stuart Boulton for The National
Trevor Brunning at his 'Walk This Way' army surplus store on Coldstream High Street. Stuart Boulton for The National

Unionists raise border concerns in election campaign 

The fiercely unionist Conservatives also do well in the Borders. At the most recent UK general election in 2019, Coldstream’s local MP John Lamont won the largest Conservative majority in Scotland.

He is now campaigning for his party in the Scottish election on May 6, which polls say the SNP is on course to win – but whether it will get an absolute majority to strengthen its case for another referendum is less clear.

Mr Lamont told The National that the border issue was a frequent concern of voters during the campaign.

“The border is just a line on the map, it’s not a real thing,” he said. “Our community, our economic unit, is something that straddles both sides.

“So the idea of border checks, or restrictions on our ability to cross the border, fills these people with a lot of anxiety and fear.

“We know it is there, people know where it is, but it’s not something that really exists in terms of practical reality.”

Leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Douglas Ross, during a media photo call in Coldstream. Stuart Boulton for The National
Leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Douglas Ross, during a media photo call in Coldstream. Stuart Boulton for The National

On Coldstream Bridge, the only visible signs of the border are a road sign welcoming visitors to Scotland and a plaque honouring it as the spot where the poet Robert Burns once travelled into England.

Mr Elliot said that people on either side retained their distinctive identities, and accents, even while remaining “completely integrated” in everyday life.

“Coldstream exists really because of the border,” he said. “It’s an extremely unusual feature.”

Mark and Hazel Stooker, who were visiting Coldstream from Newcastle, the nearest English city, said they often cross the border just for a day out.

In centuries gone by, the open border made Coldstream a destination for runaway weddings – like the more famous Gretna Green – because of Scotland’s looser marriage laws at the time.

It also has an enduring place in British history as the town that gave its name to the British Army’s Coldstream Guards.

The name comes from a 1660 episode in which a regiment marched from Coldstream to London, in order to restore Parliament and bring an end to a tumultuous decade in which Britain was ruled without a monarchy.

If the past few years sometimes felt similarly turbulent, the unionists see this as a reason to take a breather from bitter constitutional arguments.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson says that the 2014 referendum was a “once in a generation” vote which should not be repeated any time soon.

But the nationalists see things differently. In the SNP's narrative, Britain's 2016 vote to leave the European Union effectively nullified the 2014 referendum result, because the nature of the UK fundamentally changed.

Tourists look out over the River Tweed, which acts as the border between Scotland and England, towards Coldstream Bridge. Stuart Boulton for The National
Tourists look out over the River Tweed, which acts as the border between Scotland and England, towards Coldstream Bridge. Stuart Boulton for The National

For Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP’s leader and First Minister of Scotland, independence would mean a return to the EU instead of the isolation of Brexit.

She says that Scotland would still be part of the Common Travel Area, an arrangement that allows for free movement of people in the British Isles.

This would mean that people could continue to cross the 96-mile border, even if businesses face more bureaucracy.

Asked about the border issue during a televised debate on Tuesday, Ms Sturgeon did not deny that there would be new obstacles to trade.

But she said: “The benefit of being independent in Europe is that we open up free trade again across 27 other countries, the world’s biggest single market.

“Brexit is all about narrowing our horizons. Independence is about expanding those horizons again.”

Analysts are less optimistic. Dr Thomas Sampson, an international trade expert at the London School of Economics, estimates that the economic effect of a Scottish exit would be two to three times greater than that of Brexit.

“That’s primarily because the rest of the UK is a much more important trade partner for Scotland than the EU,” he said.

“If Scotland rejoins the EU, then the border between England and Scotland will become the EU’s external border, and that means that as an EU member state, Scotland would be required to impose customs checks at that border.

“Because independence would increase trade costs with the rest of the UK, that would be harmful to the Scottish economy.”

A 'Scotland Welcomes You' sign at the Scottish end of Coldstream Bridge. Stuart Boulton for The National
A 'Scotland Welcomes You' sign at the Scottish end of Coldstream Bridge. Stuart Boulton for The National

Tricky negotiations loom if Scotland breaks away

Britain went through years of fractious negotiations to prevent a "hard border" in Ireland, which all sides found unthinkable because it risked inflaming sectarian tensions.

The eventual solution was to make special arrangements for Northern Ireland, which mean checks now take place on goods crossing the Irish Sea.

Experts say there is one way that Scotland could dodge a hard border with England: by seeking a looser arrangement with the EU rather than rejoining as a full member.

But this is not the option favoured by SNP leaders, whose manifesto offers voters an “escape from Brexit”.

“Ultimately, there are no easy solutions to the problem of how an independent Scotland could achieve close integration into the EU without causing disruption to its trade with the rest of the UK,” a briefing by the Institute for Government said.

The question of which currency would be used by an independent Scotland is also a major talking point in the debate.

Mark and Hazel Stooker from Newcastle, in England, during a visit to Coldstream. Stuart Boulton for The National
Mark and Hazel Stooker from Newcastle, in England, during a visit to Coldstream. Stuart Boulton for The National

If the SNP seeks a new referendum and the UK government refuses, a standoff would ensue.

Even if this if were resolved and Scotland went on to vote for independence, the separation would not take place immediately.

“I think it’s reasonable to assume that there would be some kind of difficult negotiations,” Dr Sampson said. “At the start of those negotiations, the eventual destination would be uncertain.

“Scotland will also need to negotiate with the EU… and both those negotiations are potentially quite complicated, divisive and long-lasting.”

A vote for independence would mean the first major change in the borders of Western Europe since the reunification of Germany in 1990.

Asked whether the unionist movement would find it more difficult to interest voters in the border question if they lived further north, Mr Lamont said that most people across Scotland would be worried about the issue.

“People are regularly jumping on planes or getting on trains to go to not just faraway places, but also to other places in the UK,” he said.

“If that border between Scotland and the rest of the UK were to become a real thing and much more difficult to cross … I think most Scots would be concerned by that.”

Ms Coates said a hard border would be a shock to locals but could, at least in the short term, make Coldstream a tourist destination of sorts.

“You would have the curiosity factor for a while,” she said. “People would want to come with their passports just to see if it’s real.”

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How the UAE gratuity payment is calculated now

Employees leaving an organisation are entitled to an end-of-service gratuity after completing at least one year of service.

The tenure is calculated on the number of days worked and does not include lengthy leave periods, such as a sabbatical. If you have worked for a company between one and five years, you are paid 21 days of pay based on your final basic salary. After five years, however, you are entitled to 30 days of pay. The total lump sum you receive is based on the duration of your employment.

1. For those who have worked between one and five years, on a basic salary of Dh10,000 (calculation based on 30 days):

a. Dh10,000 ÷ 30 = Dh333.33. Your daily wage is Dh333.33

b. Dh333.33 x 21 = Dh7,000. So 21 days salary equates to Dh7,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service. Multiply this figure for every year of service up to five years.

2. For those who have worked more than five years

c. 333.33 x 30 = Dh10,000. So 30 days’ salary is Dh10,000 in gratuity entitlement for each year of service.

Note: The maximum figure cannot exceed two years total salary figure.

How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers

Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.

It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.

The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.

Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.

Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.

He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.

AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”

A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.

Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.

Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.

Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.

By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.

Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.

In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”

Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.

She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.

Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.

Ordinary Virtues: Moral Order in a Divided World by Michael Ignatieff
Harvard University Press

Points tally

1. Australia 52; 2. New Zealand 44; 3. South Africa 36; 4. Sri Lanka 35; 5. UAE 27; 6. India 27; 7. England 26; 8. Singapore 8; 9. Malaysia 3

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Indoor Cricket World Cup Dubai 2017

Venue Insportz, Dubai; Admission Free

Fixtures - Open Men 2pm: India v New Zealand, Malaysia v UAE, Singapore v South Africa, Sri Lanka v England; 8pm: Australia v Singapore, India v Sri Lanka, England v Malaysia, New Zealand v South Africa

Fixtures - Open Women Noon: New Zealand v England, UAE v Australia; 6pm: England v South Africa, New Zealand v Australia

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FROM%20THE%20ASHES
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'Moonshot'

Director: Chris Winterbauer

Stars: Lana Condor and Cole Sprouse 

Rating: 3/5