Mario Draghi has saviour credentials. Newspapers called him 'the saviour of the euro'. AFP
Mario Draghi has saviour credentials. Newspapers called him 'the saviour of the euro'. AFP
Mario Draghi has saviour credentials. Newspapers called him 'the saviour of the euro'. AFP
Mario Draghi has saviour credentials. Newspapers called him 'the saviour of the euro'. AFP

Can Mario Draghi prove the saviour of Italy?


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For generations Italians have taken comfort from a saying that the political situation was 'critical but not serious'.

With the latest political crisis, the parlous state of the country can no longer be laughed away.

After the patience of 79 year old president Sergio Mattarella snapped, Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank accepted a mandate on Wednesday to form a new government. The prime minister's designation was asked to tackle head on “the serious health, social, economic and financial emergencies” facing Italy.

Mario Draghi (L) arrives at the Quirinal Palace for a meeting with President Mattarella after the former ECB head was asked to form a new government. EPA
Mario Draghi (L) arrives at the Quirinal Palace for a meeting with President Mattarella after the former ECB head was asked to form a new government. EPA

Former prime minister Matteo Renzi’s decision to withdraw support was the last straw for the centre-left government led by Giuseppe Conte.

Undoubtedly, Mr Draghi has saviour credentials as Mr Conte's successor. Newspapers called him “the saviour of the euro” nearly a decade ago and his sway with moderate voters is high.

The orphan teenager, brilliant in mathematics, who studied at Sapienza University of Rome and has a PhD from the MIT, has flourished into one Italy’s most respected economists.

“Whatever it takes”, he said in 2012, implying that the ECB would do anything to preserve the euro: an expression so legendary in Italy that it appears written on the walls.

The orphan teenager, brilliant in mathematics, has become one of Italy’s most respected economists — a fact not lost on his supporters. AP
The orphan teenager, brilliant in mathematics, has become one of Italy’s most respected economists — a fact not lost on his supporters. AP

Though Covid-19 has killed almost 90,000 people in the country and caused enormous difficulties for the national health system, a remnant of what was once called the ‘dolce vita’ is still evident.

The historic city centres are quite crowded, many middle-class people cannot wait to get back on the ski slopes and youngsters have their aperitifs in the late afternoons. Valentine’s Day is approaching and supermarkets are full of big, heart-shaped boxes of chocolates made in Italy.

For a Draghi government to come into being, there must be a confidence vote in parliament. Centrist parties hold less than half the seats, while populists on the left, the Five Star Movement and the right, Lega and Fratelli d’Italia, can cancel each other out.

Reputation is Mr Draghi's key card. “Draghi is an important personality, he can really help Italy at this very difficult time. This is why I hope that responsibility will prevail in Parliament,” said Marcello Pera, former president of the Senate.

A left-wing member of the parliament said that many politicians did not want fresh elections. “In the end, many parliamentarians will vote for Draghi. The alternative is a new election, and many are terrified of not being re-elected,” the representative said.

If endorsed, Mr Draghi’s main challenge will be to defeat Covid-19. So far, Italy has been one of the European countries with relatively high vaccination rates and is looking to offer inoculation to most people by September. However, more co-ordination is desperately needed between national and regional health authorities.

Mr Draghi will also have to boost the economy. Entire sectors, such as restaurants, chain stores and hotels are in dire straits.
The crucial issue will be to make the best use of the €209 billion ($251.31bn) made available to Italy through Next Generation EU, a European recovery instrument to help repair the immediate damage done by Covid-19. "Italy can only hope to recover if it uses this money well. You need capable people, Draghi is the most eminent man Italy can count on, we have no other possibility" said Gianfranco Pasquino, a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University SAIS Europe in Bologna.
Social tensions are also a big challenge. Mr Conte had managed to keep the situation under control thanks to subsidies and some smart measures, but the increase in youth violence, domestic violence, queues at soup kitchens and homeless people freezing to death in the streets tell us that many Italians are running out of strength, especially in the poorer south.
"This crisis shows the disconnection between a political system that has so far only produced rubble. It also shows the needs of the country and its most enlightened elite," Marco Follini, a former deputy prime minister said.

Mr Draghi is the best that the Italian elite can express, and since he has been pointed out as the new prime minister, something has already improved: the spread between Italian and German government bonds has fallen, and the Milan stock exchange is rising. But this first small miracle will certainly not be enough.

Italy's Covid battle — in pictures

  • Visitors take pictures as singers and musicians perform at Rome's landmark Colosseum as it reopens amid an easing of coronavirus restrictions. AFP
    Visitors take pictures as singers and musicians perform at Rome's landmark Colosseum as it reopens amid an easing of coronavirus restrictions. AFP
  • Visitors walk through the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican. AP Photo
    Visitors walk through the Sistine Chapel at the Vatican. AP Photo
  • Restaurants prepare to reopen in Turin. EPA
    Restaurants prepare to reopen in Turin. EPA
  • A man sips coffee in front of the Colosseum after its reopening in Rome. AP Photo
    A man sips coffee in front of the Colosseum after its reopening in Rome. AP Photo
  • Museums employee walk down an aisle of the Vatican Museums as they prepare to open. AP Photo
    Museums employee walk down an aisle of the Vatican Museums as they prepare to open. AP Photo
  • People enjoy the late afternoon as restaurants are opened in Milan. EPA
    People enjoy the late afternoon as restaurants are opened in Milan. EPA
  • People sit at a cafe after the coronavirus disease restrictions were eased in Rome. Reuters
    People sit at a cafe after the coronavirus disease restrictions were eased in Rome. Reuters
  • Departing passengers walk at the International Airport 'Leonardo Da Vinci' in Fiumicino, near Rome. EPA
    Departing passengers walk at the International Airport 'Leonardo Da Vinci' in Fiumicino, near Rome. EPA
  • Elderly people wearing face masks play cards in a small park in Milan. EPA
    Elderly people wearing face masks play cards in a small park in Milan. EPA
  • People walk around Turin. EPA
    People walk around Turin. EPA

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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