Russia's “well co-ordinated” defences have destroyed up to two battalions of Ukrainian armour in the opening week of Kyiv's counter-offensive, defence analysts have told The National.
Using a combination of advanced attack helicopters, killer drones, thermobaric weapons, mines and electronic warfare, Moscow’s troops have performed better than expected.
While it is too early to judge Kyiv’s offensive after a week of fighting, analysts believe the conflict is becoming a war of attrition with significant “blood and violence” predicted on both sides.
Open-source intelligence has pointed towards losses of modern Leopard 2 tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, reported on social media such as Telegram, used by Russian military bloggers.
Particularly effective have been Ka-52 Alligator attack helicopters, Lancet strike drones, TOS-1 thermobaric artillery and electronic warfare. Previously the war has seen many shortcomings in Russian equipment.
A specialist military intelligence analyst, who asked to remain anonymous, said the evidence so far showed the “Russians have got it together”.
“Their defence seems very well co-ordinated, in that they're able to isolate Ukrainian formations in a way that is pretty destructive,” the analyst said. “What comes next is likely to be quite violent and bloody.”
The Ukrainians have been confronted with a daunting range of defences that include extensive minefields, precision missile strikes and artillery “kill boxes”.
The Ukrainians have also been forced to drive across the country's expansive fields where they have become “sitting ducks”, defence analyst Tim Ripley said.
“If they're going to advance across these fields with no cover then they're going to take losses,” the former Janes analyst said. “The Russians are not panicking, they are just taking their time, picking them off with a well-organised defence.”
The Russians are reportedly using the tactic of retreating to draw Ukrainian forces beyond their air defence and electronic warfare coverage before striking.
It is understood that Ukraine’s military will look to attack when it is dark as it has more thermal imagery and night vision equipment than the Russians.
After a week of fighting in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, the Ukrainian soldiers have advanced up to 10km into territory seized by Russia but are yet to reach the main defensive line, up to 20km away.
That will not be helped by heavy rain forecast in the coming days, another obstacle to tanks but also hampering Russian aviation.
The Alligator
Some commentators compare the Ka-52 Alligator to the American Apache, although it has had technical issues and 23 were shot down in the first eight months of the Russian invasion.
But now being used in defence, the twin-rotor helicopter is understood to have been a success hovering above tree lines to fire at Ukraine’s modern armour.
It carries 12 Vortex anti-tank missiles that have a range of 8km and whose laser guidance systems are near jam-proof.
“The Alligators are doing what attack helicopters are meant to do, which is locate columns that have breached a defence or a forming up to attack and take them out really quickly,” the intelligence analyst said.
To counter the threat the Ukrainians might bring forward their air defence systems but this would make them more vulnerable.
A Ukraine counter-attack using Himars or UK-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles on helicopter bases cannot be ruled out.
There was also a report on Monday that Ukraine had shot down a Ka-52 on the southern front line.
Lancet strike drone
Mobile anti-tank teams have been using the Russian-made Lancet strike drone as a long-range sniper weapon.
Diving at speeds of 300kph carrying a 1kg warhead, the weapon has, unlike Iran’s Shahed kamikaze drones, proved a battlefield success, destroying more than 100 Ukraine tanks or artillery since last year.
The Lancet, which has a range of 40km and can be carried as a backpack, can also be used to take down other drones.
Thermobaric strikes
Russia’s TOS-1 thermobaric artillery has been used to devastating effect since the Soviet Union attempted to secure Afghanistan in the 1980s. The fuel-air explosive results in a giant fireball, a blast wave and a vacuum which sucks up all surrounding oxygen.
Firing a series of rockets that land in an area the size of a football pitch, the weapon has proven lethal in enclosed environments or against personnel in tightly packed formations.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence has “highlighted the role of Russian thermobaric artillery systems in striking Ukrainian positions on the western Zaporizhzhia Oblast front line,” the Institute for Study of War (ISW) think tank reported on Sunday.
“Thermobaric artillery units have consistently fired on Ukrainian forces for the past several days and [Russia] characterised the units as essential to repelling Ukrainian frontal assaults,” the institute said.
The Ukrainians have managed to strike back, destroying two of the tracked missile systems most likely using their US-made Paladin 155mm guns.
Electronic warfare
The intelligence analyst said reports suggested that recent Ukrainian armoured attacks have been disrupted by Russia’s extensive electronic warfare systems.
“One reason given for a recent attack that fell apart was that their comms were so badly degraded that they couldn't communicate with each other and they couldn't make an effective decision about how to extract themselves,” he said.
Brigadier Ben Barry, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, said Russia had deployed “a very high level of electronic warfare” that was making Ukrainian command and control “more difficult and much harder to control Ukrainian drones”.
ISW said Russia had “successfully improved their EW use throughout the invasion”. Some Ukrainian mechanised units had not been trained “to fight without communications or with suppressed GPS”, it added.
Flying minefields
There are deep belts of anti-tank and anti-personnel mines along the defensive lines and the Russians are also using mobile mine dispensers to slow the advance.
“In this battle at the moment, the Russians are using long-range anti-tank mines, firing rockets that can dispense a minefield in an instant,” said Mr Ripley. “If they see an armoured column coming across a field they can just drop a minefield in front of them.”
The Ukrainians are finding themselves striking mines as they enter enemy territory and then again if forced to retreat.
Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army, one of its most effective fighting units, is in the Zaporizhzhia area and Moscow has moved other forces in from Kherson that are no longer required following the Khakhovka dam destruction.
War of attrition
Geolocated footage has shown one Ukraine assault halted near the town of Mala Tokmachka with the loss of two Leopard tanks, two Bradleys, two other vehicles and three specialist Leopard breaching vehicles.
“The open source footage suggests there’s a couple of battalions worth of equipment has been lost so far,” said the intelligence analyst. “If you see 10 to 12 Bradleys being immobilised there's usually quite a significant formation size that has been committed and I've seen that two or three times.”
“Can Ukrainian commanders overcome the attrition and Russian defences to convince the Russian commanders to abandon what they're doing? It's a war of wills.”
Troops trained on specialised Nato vehicles are also being lost.
Mr Ripley said the attrition was “no surprise” as it was no secret the Ukrainians would attack and the Russians had months to prepare.
“They’ve got no element of surprise, they’re advancing directly at the enemy's positions with no air cover and limited terrain to hide in,” he said. “The question is how many losses are you prepared to take for an objective, so it's turning into a war of attrition.”
Rob Lee, a leading western military blogger and former US marine, warned the toughest fighting was still ahead.
“This was always going to be tough and take time. Ukraine appears to be making important progress, but the hardest fight in this counteroffensive may not begin for another week or more,” he tweeted.
