Afghanistan faces its darkest hour since 2001 as US considers pull-out

Barely a day passes without explosions or targeted attacks in the Afghan capital. Fighting rages in the provinces while peace negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government resumed only on Monday night after long weeks of stalling.

For months now, people in Kabul – and throughout the country – have been living with a newfound but familiar panic. Those who can, leave, wondering what might happen to the heavily US-supported Afghan forces as the May deadline for a full US troop withdrawal looms.

“This is the darkest moment since 2001,” said Shaharzad Akbar, chair of Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission, referring to both an uncertain future and the surge in recent threats and attacks.

Whether the US troops actually leave has yet to be decided, but the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF) will be a crucial component for a stable future Afghanistan, even though they are not yet well-enough equipped nor financed to protect the country long term.

They are, however, preparing to increase special operations forces to face the Taliban in the upcoming fighting season, according to Deputy Defence Minister Shah Mahmoud Miakhil.

"No area in the country will face the threat of collapse," he said.

Dependent on US support

Since 2001, the US Congress has allocated about $141 billion in funding for reconstruction and for training and equipping security forces in Afghanistan. Several militia units, such as the Khost Protection Force, were specifically trained by the CIA.

Out of the war-torn country’s national annual budget, 36 per cent is set apart for defence costs, although a large chunk is financed by the US and its allies.

To this day, 45 per cent of Afghanistan’s total annual budget comes from external sources, such as foreign aid; while about 48 per cent is comprised of taxes, customs, royalties and other government revenues. A 7 per cent deficit remains.

“The ANDSF will see major hits to their budgets if US support dries up, and that means crippling operational impacts as well,” said Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia Programme at the Wilson Centre.

Afghan war – in pictures

Sergeant Jay Kenney, 26, with the 101st Airborne Division, Task Force Destiny, assists wounded Afghan National Army (ANA) soldiers off the Blackhawk UH-60A helicopter after they were rescued in an air mission in Kandahar on December 12, 2010 in Kandahar province, Afghanistan. Getty Images

An Afghan Northern Alliance fighter mans the front line against the Taliban on October 2, 2001 near Jabul os Sarache, 30 miles north of Kabul. Getty Images

Abdullah Abdullah, chief executive of Afghanistan travelling via helicopter for the final campaign rally in Bamiyan, Afghanistan on September 25, 2019. Afghans will head to the polls on Saturday, September 28th. Getty Images

Mustafa Tamanna, 10, son of Afghan reporter Zabihullah Tamanna, weeps during the funeral ceremony in Kabul, Afghanistan on June 7, 2016. Tamanna was killed by a rocket-propelled grenade fired by the Taliban. Getty Images

Northern Alliance soldiers come back from the front line after a battle near Charatoy town in the north of Afghanistan on October 10, 2001. REUTERS

A Northern Alliance fighter throwing rocks as part of a popular national game yards away from a multiple Grad missile launcher in October 12, 2001 in the Salang Gorge in Northern Afghanistan. Getty Images

A French soldier from the 7th Mountain Regiment, part of the International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) stands on a boulder overlooking Kabul during a patrol August 3, 2002 in Afghanistan. The ISAF has been patrolling Kabul since January 2002, working with the government and a new police force to prevent the violence and lawlessness that threatened to engulf the city after a U.S.-led coalition forced the Taliban from power. Getty Images

US Marine Sgt. Jerry Brown (L) of Jacksonville, North Carolina watches over a weapons cache found during a patrol near the American military compound at Kandahar Airport in January 16, 2002 in Kandahar, Afghanistan. The Marines recovered mortars, rockets, rocket-propelled grenades and artillery rounds discovered in various caches near the base while on the patrol. Getty Images)

Members of the Princess Patricia's Canadian Light Infantry patrol through poppy fields in the village of Markhanai in May 6, 2002 in the Tora Bora valley region of Afghanistan. Getty Images

The United States and Britain on October 7, 2001 launched a first wave of air strikes against Afghanistan. President George W. Bush said the action heralded a "sustained, comprehensive and relentless" campaign against terrorism. REUTERS

A young Afghan girl eats a piece of bread at the Chaman refugee camp on November 8, 2001 on the Pakistan border with Afghanistan. The UNHCR has estimated that since September 11, 2001 over 135,000 Afghans have crossed the border into Pakistan, adding to the already millions of refugees living in the country. Getty Images

Afghan opposition Northern Alliance soldiers leap over a trench as they return from front line positions after battle near the town of Charatoy in the north of Afghanistan October 10, 2001. REUTERS

An Afghan child peeks out from the doorway of his family's home as a US Army soldier from the 101st Airborne stands guard in the eastern Afghan village of Hesarak on July 16, 2002 during what the Army refers to as a 'sensitive site exploitation' mission or 'SSE'. Getty Images

Fred Perry, a British Royal Engineer soldier, reads the book "Black Hawk Down" inside his tent after a day of work on January 29, 2002 at the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) barracks at the Kabul airport in Kabul, Afghanistan. Getty Images

Afghan soldiers (L) speak to a local Afghan, while a medic in the U.S. Army's 1st Battalion, 36th Infantry Regiment, Charlie Company (R) monitors a soldier who has just survived a blast from an improvised explosive device (IED) while driving a vehicle during a mission near Command Outpost Pa'in Kalay, on March 19, 2013 in Kandahar Province, Maiwand District, Afghanistan. Getty Images

Marines on a light armored vehicle prepare for patrol as an AH1W "Super Cobra" helicopter flies by on December 28, 2001 at the U.S. Marine Corps Base in Kandahar, Afghanistan. Getty Images

A Norwegian ISAF (International Security Assistance Force)soldier from Recce Squadron 3 patrols on October 4, 2004 in Kabul, Afghanistan as election officials get ready for the Presidential elections. Getty Images

Interim Afghan leader Hamid Karzai (L) is greeted by a group of Afghan military officers on his arrival to Kandahar airbase on May 04, 2002 in Southern Afghanistan. Getty Images

Soldiers in the U.S. Army's 101st Airborne Division wade though a creek to avoid buried insurgent bombs while on patrol October 16, 2010 in Zhari district west of Kandahar, Afghanistan. Getty Images

British commandos descend from a mountain observation post overlooking the beginning of the Helmand River at the Kajaki hydroelectric dam on March 13, 2007 in Afghanistan's southern Helmand province. Getty Images

101st Airbornes 1st Sgt. Kerry Black from Westmoreland, Tennessee uses an Afghan child's sling shot on February 6, 2002 as children crowd around him while he patrols on the outskirts of Kandahar, Afghanistan. Getty Images

Marine Cpl. Jonathan Eckert of Oak Lawn, IL attached to India Battery, 3rd Battalion, 12th Marine Regiment works his improvised explosive device (IED) sniffing dog Bee as they secure a compound during a patrol near Forward Operating Base (FOB) Zeebrugge on October 11, 2010 in Kajaki, Afghanistan. Getty Images

Afghan refugees walk across the border into Pakistan on October 11, 2001 as they leave Afghanistan at the Chaman crossing point on the 4th day of U.S.-led air strikes against the ruling Taliban and terrorist networks in the country. Getty Images

Anti-Taliban Afghan fighters watch several explosions from U.S. bombings in the Tora Bora mountains in Afghanistan on December 16, 2001.

British Marines run under fire from the Taliban during a morning operation on March 18, 2007 near Kajaki in the Afghan province of Helmand. Getty Images

Afghan Army troops prepare to board a British chinook helicopter from their base at Shorabak on March 12, 2007 in Southern Helmand province, Afghanistan. Getty Images

British Marine Joe Harvey from Stafford, England (R), watches as British forces come under fire by Taliban insurgents on March 18, 2007 near Kajaki in the Afghan province of Helmand. Getty Images

U.S. Army 101st Airborne 3-187 "Bravo" company soliders pass through a corn field while conducting a sensitive site exploitation (SSE) mission July 23, 2002 near the town of Narizah in Southeastern Afghanistan. Getty Images

Scouts from 2nd Battalion, 503rd Infantry Regiment (Airborne), pull overwatch during Operation Destined Strike while 2nd Platoon, Able Company searches a village below the Chowkay Valley in Kunar Province, Afghanistan on August 22, 2006. US Army

“US funding cuts to Afghan security forces would have major impacts across the board on their ability to fight, and at a moment when the Taliban’s insurgency has never been stronger.

"This is why one of the most important unknowns at this point is whether a US troop pull-out would also entail turning off the aid spigot. The former would be highly damaging for the security situation, but the latter could be downright catastrophic,” Mr Kugelman said.

Afghanistan’s army disintegrated once before, under former president Mohammad Najibullah after declining financial and technical support from the Soviet Union after they withdrew in 1989, although the current ANDSF is stronger, and better built.

Defence Ministry spokesman Jawad Aman is optimistic. “Nato has committed to continue to provide funding to Afghan security forces through 2024,” he told The National.

“The Afghan National Army is independently conducting all ground operations and more than 95 per cent of air strikes. They have the capability to fight terrorist threats and protect the country independently.”

Corruption in the ranks

Almost 20 years of US and Nato partnership certainly strengthened the ANDSF, but the forces continue to struggle and corruption is widespread.

Camp Scorpion, one of the US bases outside Kabul, was left to Afghan commandos last September, but days later, lorries and other vehicles left behind at the base were already missing, sold off or stolen, an Afghan officer said.

Afghanistan’s air force – still dependent on US contractors – is poorly equipped, a recent report by the lead inspector general for Operation Freedom’s Sentinel said. Almost 94 per cent of Nato’s train advise assist command-air personnel has left the country, paralysing the mission to further train new pilots and service aircraft. “No airframe can be sustained as combat effective for more than a few months,” the report said.

Afghan forces largely rely on air support for attacks and to deliver supplies and transport casualties in the mountainous country.

“The Americans made our lives very easy,” an Afghan officer who worked directly with the US said. “We now carry the responsibility. It is very hard.”

Throughout the country, Afghanistan’s security forces are trying to hang on.

Agha Wali, 21, a shaggy-haired national police officer, who fights at the frontline in Kandahar’s Panjwayi district, admits to being tired. “But we can’t give up now,” he said. “We’ve seen many of our friends and colleagues killed. We need to keep fighting for peace.”

Shafiqullah Khogyani, 28, an army officer stationed in the eastern Kunar province, is more optimistic. “The Afghan national army is strong,” he said. “We’re already fighting the enemy without US support and we will prevail, even if it might be difficult.”

For the approximately $200 he makes a month, he says he will “defend the country for as long as I'm alive”. He feels betrayed by the Americans nonetheless. “They are turning their backs on us,” he said.

The future is uncertain.

An Afghan security officer keeps watch at the site of a blast in Kabul, Afghanistan on December 15, 2020. REUTERS

Afghan police arrive at the site of a bomb attack in Kabul on December 15, 2020. AP

People stand around a car damaged in a bomb attack on the street in Kabul, Afghanistan December 15, Tamana Ashna via REUTERS

Afghan municipality workers clean the remains of a vehicle after a bomb blast in Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, December 13, 2020. AP

An Afghan security member inspects a damaged vehicle after a bomb blast in Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, December 13, 2020. AP

An Afghan security member inspects a damaged vehicle after a bomb blast in Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, December 13, 2020. AP

An Afghan boy look at the broken glass at the site of a rocket attack at a residential house in Kabul on December 12. EPA

A shrapnel hole in a glass at the site of a rocket attack at a residential house in Kabul, Afghanistan December 12, 2020. EPA

Afghan children look at the broken glass at the site of a rocket attack at a residential house in Kabul, December 12, 2020. EPA

An Afghan man look at the site of a rocket attack at a residential house in Kabul on December 12, 2020. EPA

Afghan men gather at the site of a rocket attack at a residential house in Kabul, Afghanistan December 12, 2020. EPA

A no-win situation

“Let’s be clear: if US forces remain beyond May 1 without getting the Taliban to agree to an extension, it’ll be back to the drawing board at the worst possible moment,” Mr Kugelman said.

“The most responsible option is to try for a troop withdrawal extension, and if you don’t get it, start planning for a full pull-out on May 1. Tragically, no matter what the US does, the Afghan people will lose out the most.”

Afghanistan is liable to slip into civil war if left alone, according to former Afghan government adviser Torek Farhadi.

Warlords and local militias have been arming throughout the country, leading many to fear a similar scenario to the 1992-1996 civil war. ISIS recently published a video calling on Taliban fighters to switch sides, announcing plans for further attacks throughout Afghanistan.

“Nobody knows how the world will evolve,” Mr Farhadi said.

“One thing is sure though: many in the US have realised the Americans have overstayed and overspent in Afghanistan. On both sides of the political spectrum, the majority agree that the longest war must be brought to an end.”