The number of people requiring urgent food aid in 16 countries across Africa's Sahel region more than doubled this year to some 9.4 million amid an increase in violence and insecurity, officials and experts said on Monday.
Three countries - Nigeria, Niger and Burkina Faso - are facing crisis conditions, at phase three out of five on the scale used by the Food Crisis Prevention Network, which includes government and United Nations representatives as well as NGOs.
Some 9.4 million people are estimated to be in immediate need of assistance, according to data collected on the period from October to December 2019, across the 16 countries analysed.
The figure includes 4 million people in Nigeria, 1.5 million in Niger and 1.2 million in Burkina Faso.
"By June to August 2020, 14.4 million people are projected to be in a crisis situation or worse,” the network said in a statement issued during its annual meeting in Paris.
Of those, the network expects 1.2 million to be in an emergency situation, one classification beneath famine.
"Civil insecurity has deteriorated this year in Mali, Burkina Faso and Nigeria," said Mahalmoudou Hamadoun of the Permanent Interstate Committee for drought control in the Sahel.
"So these mainly rural populations cannot ensure their means of subsistence, agriculture or animal raising, even as they continue to be affected by climate change," he said.
The vast expanse of the Sahel along the southern rim of the Sahara is extremely vulnerable to drought, even as birth rates surge across the region.
Attacks by extremists against police and other government targets, along with inter-ethnic fighting, are also adding to the strains on local populations.
"Entire villages have been displaced in Burkina Faso, schools and health clinics are closed - people don't have the possibility of staying in their homes," said Sibiri Jean Zoundi, head of the Sahel Club at the Paris-based Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
France intervened militarily in Mali and the wider Sahel in 2014, waging counter insurgency operations with a force of 4,500 troops.
But rather than stabilising, security has progressively worsened with militants linked to Al Qaeda and ISIS strengthening their foothold across the region, making large swathes of territory ungovernable and stoking ethnic violence, especially in Mali and Burkina Faso.
Violence spiked at the beginning of this year with a series of high-profile attacks, and last month 13 French soldiers were killed in a collision between two helicopters while battling insurgents.
Director: Paul Weitz
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
The biog
Favourite book: Homegoing by Yaa Gyasi
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Favourite film: Bohemian Rhapsody
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Premier League results
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Sunday
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Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
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Day 1, Abu Dhabi Test: At a glance
Moment of the day Dimuth Karunaratne had batted with plenty of pluck, and no little skill, in getting to within seven runs of a first-day century. Then, while he ran what he thought was a comfortable single to mid-on, his batting partner Dinesh Chandimal opted to stay at home. The opener was run out by the length of the pitch.
Stat of the day – 1 One six was hit on Day 1. The boundary was only breached 18 times in total over the course of the 90 overs. When it did arrive, the lone six was a thing of beauty, as Niroshan Dickwella effortlessly clipped Mohammed Amir over the square-leg boundary.
The verdict Three wickets down at lunch, on a featherbed wicket having won the toss, and Sri Lanka’s fragile confidence must have been waning. Then Karunaratne and Chandimal's alliance of precisely 100 gave them a foothold in the match. Dickwella’s free-spirited strokeplay meant the Sri Lankans were handily placed at 227-4 at the close.
