Sudanese demonstrators take part in an anti-government protest in Khartoum, Sudan January 25, 2019. Reuters
Sudanese demonstrators take part in an anti-government protest in Khartoum, Sudan January 25, 2019. Reuters
Sudanese demonstrators take part in an anti-government protest in Khartoum, Sudan January 25, 2019. Reuters
Sudanese demonstrators take part in an anti-government protest in Khartoum, Sudan January 25, 2019. Reuters

How an illegal Sudanese union became the biggest threat to Omar Al Bashir’s 29-year reign


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Ten years ago, Mohamed Yousif Ahmed Al Mustafa was a state labour minister. Today, he is a wanted man.

As a spokesman for the Sudanese Professionals Association (SPA), the outlawed umbrella group of unions currently leading protests calling on President Omar Al Bashir to step down, Dr Al Mustafa has been arrested and released twice already in recent weeks. The other spokesman in Sudan, 28-year-old Dr Mohamed Nagi Al Asam, has remained in detention since January 4.

Other than two other spokespersons living in exile overseas, the membership of the SPA is a closely guarded secret, and with good reason.

The protests led by the SPA represent one of the biggest challenges to Mr Al Bashir’s 29-year rule, and the government is doing all it can to crush the protests and identify and arrest SPA members.

While there are about 100 political parties in Sudan, the SPA was the first body to call for protests in Khartoum. And despite the arrests, the secretive body continues to lead the demonstrations, meaning Sudan’s political future may rest in its hands.

When the government cut subsidies last December, prices of bread doubled overnight. Ordinary Sudanese, frustrated at the rising cost of basic food items, were outraged. But with political opposition and unions neutered after years of Mr Al Bashir consolidating power, speaking out meant persecution.

Since taking power in a military coup in 1989, Mr Al Bashir has demonstrated a single-minded focus on clinging to power. Banning trade unions was at the lesser end of his authoritarianism. He also banned political parties and dissolved parliament, while purging and even executing those accused of opposing him.

He remains the only sitting head of state wanted by the International Criminal Court on genocide charges stemming from the Darfur conflict. And since the South broke away in 2011, taking with it three-quarters of Sudan’s oil revenues, the economy has collapsed, with inflation rising to 69 per cent last month and food items tripling in price.

Despite the economic hardship, the government has continued to neglect the public sector. Just five per cent of last year’s budget was allocated to education and healthcare. Hospitals meanwhile have faced both a shortage of medicine and of doctors.

Earlier dissatisfaction with the state of Sudan’s public health service led doctors to revive the banned Sudanese Doctors Syndicate in 2012. Unregistered and unrecognised by the government, it has nonetheless played a formative role in the SPA alongside other professionals.

SPA spokesman Dr Al Mustafa explains the formation of the association outside his office at the University of Khartoum where he has been teaching anthropology off and on since 1977.

His office could be bugged, he believes, and he expects to be arrested again at any time. His release earlier this month after being detained at a protest was only due to an outcry from other professors, he believes.

“[In 2012,] we formed a union for university lecturers in Sudan,” he said. “But our union was not enough to create change, we started to look at other professional bodies.”

They began holding meetings with the doctors syndicate and the teachers’ committee. By January 2014, the SPA was formed with a plan to advocate for a living wage for families and a better work environment.

Earlier this year, the SPA estimated that a family of five would need 8,663 Sudanese pounds (Dh670) to survive for a month without luxuries. The current minimum wage in Sudan is just 423 Sudanese pounds (Dh33).

When the first protests against the rising cost of living broke out on December 19 in Atbara, 320 kilometres down the Nile from Khartoum, the SPA saw a chance to highlight their demands for an increased minimum wage.

But seeing the anger of the demonstrators, the SPA changed its approach. “We could not just ask for lifting the minimum wage, we listened to the protesters and asked for regime change,” said Dr Sarah Abdeljaleel, a spokesperson for the SPA based in the United Kingdom.

When the SPA published a statement calling people to take to the streets in central Khartoum, many had never heard of the organisation, but thousands responded to the call.

“This revolution is a result of an accumulation of historical injustices suffered by different communities, people were ready to take to the streets, but they wanted leadership and the association came at the right time with the right message,” said Amjed Farid, a member of the Sudanese Doctors Syndicate.

The opposition political parties were quiet for a few days, but by early January, they united and joined the calls for regime-change. But people on the ground were responding to the SPA and not the political parties.

One university graduate told The National she supported the SPA's calls because they were not acting out of self-interest. "They are just people – like me – who want this regime gone because it is unable to improve our daily existence."

Sudan’s professional classes meanwhile say it is time for the entrenched old guard to step aside. “Sudanese people are tired of the failures of the old political elite, there was political fatigue after decades of [political] parties not… providing a concrete solution to the problems of Sudan,” said Dr Farid.

After more than 40 days of protests across 15 of Sudan’s 18 states, the country is at a standstill. Pharmacists and other medical professionals are on strike, doctors are only treating emergency cases, engineers have halted construction on building sites. As demonstrations continue, at least 40 protesters have been killed by security forces, rights groups say. The government says it has arrested 816 protesters, though rights group say the figure is much higher.

President Al Bashir has called the protesters saboteurs and blamed “infiltrators” for killing protesters. He has told those calling on him to step down to wait for next year’s elections, in which he still plans to contest after modifying the constitution to allow him another term.

The crackdown on dissent continues. Social media platforms have been blocked from the first week of protests and can only be accessed by using a virtual private network – an encrypted connection that hides a user’s location and identity. Security forces have detained several journalists and revoked accreditation for foreign correspondents from Al Jazeera and Al Arabiya.

In light of the attempts by security forces to shut down the SPA, its members in Sudan are using encrypted communications. It continues to call for protests, adapting its strategies to try and stay ahead of security forces. The latest is to hold protests at night.

As Sudan’s professional classes continue calling for the president to step down, the ongoing protests are a constant reminder of why they are on the frontlines of the movement.

As Dr Farid explained: “As doctors, we have a moral duty to save lives, but in this collapsing system, we can’t even be doctors if we operate in hospitals that don’t even have oxygen and insulin.”

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

RACE CARD

4pm Al Bastakiya – Listed (TB) $150,000 (Dirt) 1,900m

4.35pm Dubai City Of Gold – Group 2 (TB) $228,000 (Turf) 2,410m

5.10pm Mahab Al Shimaal – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,200m

5.45pm Burj Nahaar – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (D) 1,600m

6.20pm Jebel Hatta – Group 1 (TB) $260,000 (T) 1,800m

6.55pm Al Maktoum Challenge Round-1 – Group 1 (TB) $390,000 (D) 2,000m

7.30pm Nad Al Sheba – Group 3 (TB) $228,000 (T) 1,200m

What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence