Walkout puts Iraq's unity deal in jeopardy



BAGHDAD // Hopes that Iraq can form a national unity government are now hanging by a thread amid signs that a power-sharing deal has already collapsed.

Some 50 MPs from Iraqiyya, the Sunni-backed nationalist bloc headed by Ayad Allawi which narrowly won the March elections, walked out of Thursday's parliamentary session, protesting against the deal they said had been broken.

"We had an agreement on the procedures and that agreement was not honoured," said Hassan al Allawi, an Iraqiyya MP, yesterday. "We will give parliament one month to honour the agreement and we will use that month to decide if we will be involved in the political process or not."

This latest political crisis erupted even as the US president, Barack Obama, hailed the creation of an "inclusive" government as a "milestone" for the war-torn nation.

All appeared to be well on Thursday night as Iraqi MPs elected Osama al Nujaifi to the position of speaker, the first procedural step in the formation of a new administration.

Immediately afterwards, members of Iraqiyya had expected a parliamentary vote to endorse the details of the power-sharing agreement struck between the major factions the previous evening.

But a majority of MPs voted against that and, instead, moved quickly to re-elect Jalal Talabani as president. He then immediately reappointed Nouri al Maliki as prime minister, a step that in effect by-passed the deal Iraqiyya said it had agreed to, in exchange for joining a unity government.

That deal, Iraqiyya MPs say, included the creation of a National Council for Political and Strategic Policies (NCPSP), to be headed by Mr Allawi, with veto powers over government decisions, and a pledge to reinstate three Iraqiyya members banned from parliament over alleged links to the outlawed Baath party.

The walkout had occurred before Thursday's presidential vote had taken place, by then however, Mr al Maliki, Iraqiyya's archival, had already been handed another term of office.

If Iraqiyya does pull out, it would, once again, mean the country's Sunni Arab minority - the backbone of a continued insurgency - would be largely unrepresented in government, something that could fuel rebel violence.

MPs loyal to Mr al Maliki and the Kurdish bloc, which has thrown its weight behind his reappointment to a second term as prime minister, insist the power-sharing deal has not been broken.

"I'm sorry that some of the Iraqiyya members walked out of the parliament meeting, I wish they had more patience," said Ali Shlah, an MP with the National Alliance coalition, headed by Mr al Maliki.

"We want to continue with the deal, we have not broken the agreements," he said. "It is impossible to think that all of these problems were going to be sorted out in the first parliamentary session. We are going to sort them out, but it will take other meetings of parliament."

Mahmoud Othman, a senior Kurdish MP said he sympathised with Iraqiyya's concerns the agreement had been reneged upon, but said they were not valid and that the deal would be upheld.

"The Kurds understand Iraqiyya's fears," he said. "Trust is very weak between the political blocs but Iraqiyya has to understand this will take more time. If they pull out of the political process they will have made the wrong decision."

The crisis has only underscored a series of major questions that have dogged efforts to conclude a power sharing deal. In the absence of precise details, there appear to be radically different interpretations about the strength of the NCPSP, for example.

Iraqiyya insists the to-be formed NCPSP will have decision-making prerogatives and the powers to rein in the prime minister, claims Mr al Maliki's bloc has never publicly confirmed. That was why Iraqiyya had insisted upon a parliamentary acknowledgement of the deal before Mr al Maliki was formally reappointed.

And, as things stand, the NCPSP does not even exist. It will take time consuming constitutional amendments to bring it into place, and parliament, controlled by Mr al Maliki, will get to decide on its precise remit.

Since being made prime minister and tasked with the job of forming a cabinet - he has 30 days to name his ministers - Mr al Maliki is, once again, the most powerful man in the country and, in fact, more so even than before.

Previously, the president, Mr Talabani, wielded veto powers over parliamentary decisions, a check on Mr al Maliki's authority. Constitutionally those powers expired with the end of the last government, leaving the presidential post now largely ceremonial.

Ahmed Janabi, an independent political analyst from Baghdad, said Mr al Maliki and his backers had outmanoeuvred his rivals and effectively gained uncontested control of the government.

"They have voted in the speaker, the president and the prime minister without meeting Iraqiyya's demands," he said. "Ayad Allawi has had the carpet pulled from beneath his feet, he's going to get nothing, the national council [NCPSP] will be toothless."

While Iraqiyya does control the influential post of parliamentary speaker, giving it the power to shape the legislative process and control what laws go before MPs, there are indications that Mr Allawi's bloc is fragmenting and may well break apart entirely.

While more than 50 Iraqiyya MPs walked out of the Thursday parliament session, including Mr Allawi, another 40 remained in their seats, refusing to join the protest.

Mr al Nujaifi, the parliament speaker and an Iraqiyya member, appeared to be in mixed mind. He initially refused to join the walkout, then left parliament, only to return when his deputies carried on the business of voting for president without him.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Other IPL batting records

Most sixes: 292 – Chris Gayle

Most fours: 491 – Gautam Gambhir

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Starting at 2pm

Prajnesh Gunneswaran (IND) v Dennis Novak (AUT) 

Joao Sousa (POR) v Filip Krajinovic (SRB)

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The flights

Emirates have direct flights from Dubai to Glasgow from Dh3,115. Alternatively, if you want to see a bit of Edinburgh first, then you can fly there direct with Etihad from Abu Dhabi.

The hotel

Located in the heart of Mackintosh's Glasgow, the Dakota Deluxe is perhaps the most refined hotel anywhere in the city. Doubles from Dh850

 Events and tours

There are various Mackintosh specific events throughout 2018 – for more details and to see a map of his surviving designs see glasgowmackintosh.com

For walking tours focussing on the Glasgow Style, see the website of the Glasgow School of Art. 

More information

For ideas on planning a trip to Scotland, visit www.visitscotland.com

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