Few businesses have taken as hard a hit from the coronavirus pandemic as those in the aviation industry.
Across the world, airlines have called for government bailouts as international travel has all but ground to a halt.
Staff at some airlines were let go or forced to take pay cuts and industry bosses have issued dire warnings about future earnings.
So when restrictions are lifted, what can passengers expect?
Firstly, airlines are expected to space out passengers, meaning many seats will be unused.
People will prefer to travel within their country or region due to a fear of relapse... and be able to return home quickly in the event of another lockdown
That will inevitably to lead to an increase in ticket prices, though perhaps not straight away, experts said.
Periods of quarantine before or after travel may become necessary and staycations or short hops to neighbouring countries are expected to be more common.
Amitabh Upadhya, a professor at Skyline University College in Sharjah who specialises in tourism and travel, said recovery would be slow.
He said the industry survived past crises such as 9/11 and numerous natural disasters, although there was no meaningful comparison to the coronavirus pandemic.
"There will be a slow recovery and people will prefer to travel within their country or region due to a fear of relapse," Prof Upadhya told The National.
“People will want to be able to return home quickly in the event of another lockdown.
“Overall, unless a complete treatment protocol is in place and vaccines are conveniently available, tourism will take a beating.”
The prediction of a slow recovery is in line with those made by global airline bosses.
Ed Bastian, chief executive of Delta Airlines, told staff to expect a “choppy, sluggish recovery” that would take up to three years, even after the virus was contained.
Prof Upadhya said he believed the inevitable downturn in passenger numbers would also affect other businesses that rely on tourism.
“Unfortunately, I don’t see a pleasant scenario fo airlines and hotels and I have even worse fears for the cruise industry,” he said.
“I also have my doubts about the low-cost airlines that saw a surge in the past few decades and have been very successful.
"Larger legacy airline companies with more muscle may gobble up a few or force some to close shop.
“Air travel fares initially will be low and some adventurous travellers would take advantage, but ultimately air travel will become dearer.”
The figures are stark. About two-thirds of the world’s 26,000 passenger aircraft are grounded and about 25 million jobs are at risk in the airline industry, Bloomberg reported.
The International Air Transport Association said airlines faced a $314 billion (Dh1.153 trillion) shortfall in ticket sales this year and half of those companies would be at risk of bankruptcy in two to three months without government help.
More broadly, the World Travel and Tourism Council said 100 million people could lose their jobs.
New working practices may also have an effect on the future of travel.
Restrictions to curb the spread of the virus have meant more businesses across the world have turned to video platforms to hold meetings.
And while many international conferences and seminars have been cancelled due to the pandemic, others have gone ahead online.
Maggie Bootsman, UAE general manager of Travel Counsellors, a company in Manchester that arranges bespoke holidays and operates in seven countries, said that trend could continue.
However, she said she did not believe business travel would suffer long-term.
“It’s true we may see more video conferencing than face-to-face meetings," she said.
"However, people will still need to travel for business to forge and renew relationships with their suppliers and partners.
“The focus will be on traveller health, safety and well-being, and corporate travellers will be looking to their travel suppliers for reassurance that the necessary precautions have been taken to protect people post-Covid-19.”
Many customers tell us they are craving something positive to look forward to ... to take to the road or skies again and explore the world as they did before
She said many people were eager to spend travel vouchers given to them by airlines in compensation for cancelled flights.
“We’re supporting our customers to rearrange cancelled travel plans to later in the year or for 2021, with many customers telling us they are craving something positive to look forward to,” she said.
“We’re planning for a renewed love for travel among many of our customers, who will be keen to take to the road or skies again and explore the world as they did before.”
However, those who choose to continue travelling as before could find the experience more cumbersome.
Both Prof Upadhya and Ms Bootsman said they believed enhanced health screening could become a “new normal” for people who booked flights.
Meanwhile, protective equipment has become part of the uniform for cabin crew still at work.
“Post-September 11 saw extra security at airports and tourist destinations and I believe that health checks will become the new normal,” Ms Bootsman said.
“Airline and accommodation providers that have actively protected their customers during this time will be more attractive to travellers, who are going to very aware of any potential risks.”
Justin Francis, chief executive of the UK-based company Responsible Travel, said any drop in tourism numbers could also have devastating consequences for some of the world’s poorest communities, who rely so heavily on the sector.
Mr Francis, whose company offers “authentic and sustainable adventures”, said he was director of a safari company near the Masai Mara National Reserve in Kenya.
“There is now no tourism and the markets are closed. They cannot buy food or easily sell cattle," he said.
Mr Francis said a collaborative approach was critical for the industry to recover.
“The recovery will not be equal,” he said.
“For a time, tourism will narrow down even further on a few trusted favourites who are able to invest quickest in health screening and guarantee good medical care in the destinations.
“Some destinations who can afford it will essentially pay tourists to come.
“If we are to rebuild tourism better than before, then I believe we must act and behave like we are all in this together.”
War
Director: Siddharth Anand
Cast: Hrithik Roshan, Tiger Shroff, Ashutosh Rana, Vaani Kapoor
Rating: Two out of five stars
Paris%20Agreement
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Non-oil%20trade
%3Cp%3ENon-oil%20trade%20between%20the%20UAE%20and%20Japan%20grew%20by%2034%20per%20cent%20over%20the%20past%20two%20years%2C%20according%20to%20data%20from%20the%20Federal%20Competitiveness%20and%20Statistics%20Centre.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EIn%2010%20years%2C%20it%20has%20reached%20a%20total%20of%20Dh524.4%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ECars%20topped%20the%20list%20of%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20re-exported%20to%20Japan%20in%202022%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh1.3%20billion.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EJewellery%20and%20ornaments%20amounted%20to%20Dh150%20million%20while%20precious%20metal%20scraps%20amounted%20to%20Dh105%20million.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ERaw%20aluminium%20was%20ranked%20first%20among%20the%20top%20five%20commodities%20exported%20to%20Japan.%C2%A0%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETop%20of%20the%20list%20of%20commodities%20imported%20from%20Japan%20in%202022%20was%20cars%2C%20with%20a%20value%20of%20Dh20.08%20billion.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs: 2018 BMW R nineT Scrambler
Price, base / as tested Dh57,000
Engine 1,170cc air/oil-cooled flat twin four-stroke engine
Transmission Six-speed gearbox
Power 110hp) @ 7,750rpm
Torque 116Nm @ 6,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined 5.3L / 100km
In numbers: PKK’s money network in Europe
Germany: PKK collectors typically bring in $18 million in cash a year – amount has trebled since 2010
Revolutionary tax: Investigators say about $2 million a year raised from ‘tax collection’ around Marseille
Extortion: Gunman convicted in 2023 of demanding $10,000 from Kurdish businessman in Stockholm
Drug trade: PKK income claimed by Turkish anti-drugs force in 2024 to be as high as $500 million a year
Denmark: PKK one of two terrorist groups along with Iranian separatists ASMLA to raise “two-digit million amounts”
Contributions: Hundreds of euros expected from typical Kurdish families and thousands from business owners
TV channel: Kurdish Roj TV accounts frozen and went bankrupt after Denmark fined it more than $1 million over PKK links in 2013
Retail gloom
Online grocer Ocado revealed retail sales fell 5.7 per cen in its first quarter as customers switched back to pre-pandemic shopping patterns.
It was a tough comparison from a year earlier, when the UK was in lockdown, but on a two-year basis its retail division, a joint venture with Marks&Spencer, rose 31.7 per cent over the quarter.
The group added that a 15 per cent drop in customer basket size offset an 11.6. per cent rise in the number of customer transactions.
The President's Cake
Director: Hasan Hadi
Starring: Baneen Ahmad Nayyef, Waheed Thabet Khreibat, Sajad Mohamad Qasem
Rating: 4/5
box
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Letstango.com
Started: June 2013
Founder: Alex Tchablakian
Based: Dubai
Industry: e-commerce
Initial investment: Dh10 million
Investors: Self-funded
Total customers: 300,000 unique customers every month
'Top Gun: Maverick'
Rating: 4/5
Directed by: Joseph Kosinski
Starring: Tom Cruise, Val Kilmer, Jennifer Connelly, Jon Hamm, Miles Teller, Glen Powell, Ed Harris
Safety 'top priority' for rival hyperloop company
The chief operating officer of Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, Andres de Leon, said his company's hyperloop technology is “ready” and safe.
He said the company prioritised safety throughout its development and, last year, Munich Re, one of the world's largest reinsurance companies, announced it was ready to insure their technology.
“Our levitation, propulsion, and vacuum technology have all been developed [...] over several decades and have been deployed and tested at full scale,” he said in a statement to The National.
“Only once the system has been certified and approved will it move people,” he said.
HyperloopTT has begun designing and engineering processes for its Abu Dhabi projects and hopes to break ground soon.
With no delivery date yet announced, Mr de Leon said timelines had to be considered carefully, as government approval, permits, and regulations could create necessary delays.
The five pillars of Islam
Most F1 world titles
7 — Michael Schumacher (1994, ’95, 2000, ’01 ’02, ’03, ’04)
7 — Lewis Hamilton (2008, ’14,’15, ’17, ’18, ’19, ’20)
5 — Juan Manuel Fangio (1951, ’54, ’55, ’56, ’57)
4 — Alain Prost (1985, ’86, ’89, ’93)
4 — Sebastian Vettel (2010, ’11, ’12, ’13)
Jetour T1 specs
Engine: 2-litre turbocharged
Power: 254hp
Torque: 390Nm
Price: From Dh126,000
Available: Now
FOOTBALL TEST
Team X 1 Team Y 0
Scorers
Red card
Man of the Match
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen
Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide
Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content
Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land
Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
Will the pound fall to parity with the dollar?
The idea of pound parity now seems less far-fetched as the risk grows that Britain may split away from the European Union without a deal.
Rupert Harrison, a fund manager at BlackRock, sees the risk of it falling to trade level with the dollar on a no-deal Brexit. The view echoes Morgan Stanley’s recent forecast that the currency can plunge toward $1 (Dh3.67) on such an outcome. That isn’t the majority view yet – a Bloomberg survey this month estimated the pound will slide to $1.10 should the UK exit the bloc without an agreement.
New Prime Minister Boris Johnson has repeatedly said that Britain will leave the EU on the October 31 deadline with or without an agreement, fuelling concern the nation is headed for a disorderly departure and fanning pessimism toward the pound. Sterling has fallen more than 7 per cent in the past three months, the worst performance among major developed-market currencies.
“The pound is at a much lower level now but I still think a no-deal exit would lead to significant volatility and we could be testing parity on a really bad outcome,” said Mr Harrison, who manages more than $10 billion in assets at BlackRock. “We will see this game of chicken continue through August and that’s likely negative for sterling,” he said about the deadlocked Brexit talks.
The pound fell 0.8 per cent to $1.2033 on Friday, its weakest closing level since the 1980s, after a report on the second quarter showed the UK economy shrank for the first time in six years. The data means it is likely the Bank of England will cut interest rates, according to Mizuho Bank.
The BOE said in November that the currency could fall even below $1 in an analysis on possible worst-case Brexit scenarios. Options-based calculations showed around a 6.4 per cent chance of pound-dollar parity in the next one year, markedly higher than 0.2 per cent in early March when prospects of a no-deal outcome were seemingly off the table.
Bloomberg
if you go
The flights
The closest international airport to the TMB trail is Geneva (just over an hour’s drive from the French ski town of Chamonix where most people start and end the walk). Direct flights from the UAE to Geneva are available with Etihad and Emirates from about Dh2,790 including taxes.
The trek
The Tour du Mont Blanc takes about 10 to 14 days to complete if walked in its entirety, but by using the services of a tour operator such as Raw Travel, a shorter “highlights” version allows you to complete the best of the route in a week, from Dh6,750 per person. The trails are blocked by snow from about late October to early May. Most people walk in July and August, but be warned that trails are often uncomfortably busy at this time and it can be very hot. The prime months are June and September.
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Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
