Social media can 'tip the balance' in conflicts, UAE expert warns



DUBAI // Social media is becoming an inherent part of international conflict and cyber security, according to a UAE expert.

The impact of people's online interactions on global security and the so-called information war was highlighted at the GCC Government Social Media Summit last week by an expert from Abu Dhabi's Khalifa University.

Dr Jean-Marc Rickli, assistant professor at the university's Institute for International and Civil Security, said expressing political ideas and exposing scandal and wrongdoing was helping to shape the course of conflict.

This widespread, or "viral", dissemination of information is something governments cannot ignore, particularly in times of conflict or crisis, Dr Rickli warned.

"Sometimes individuals can post things that go viral and this can completely tip the balance, but it is impossible to know what things will be picked up in this way," he said.

Dr Rickli believes that given the amount of information posted online every day, social media has become a powerful tool to shape perceptions and define values.

Social media is said to have a "multiplier effect" on the spread of information, meaning a particular piece of media can be quickly spread to millions regardless of their location.

This connectivity not only allows for positive interactions, but also poses a threat to governments, institutions and the individuals it targets if the ideas expressed are conflicting or malicious, Dr Rickli explained.

"The most important impact of social media on international security is that a single individual can have a strategic effect over the course of a conflict," he said.

Dr Rickli cited as an example the pictures of torture being carried out by US soldiers at Abu Ghraib during the war in Iraq, which were released on social media and in the press.

"These pictures completely undermined the legitimacy of the American war effort," he said.

Dr Rickli also highlighted the importance of the revelations about the US surveillance programme, PRISM. Information was leaked to the mainstream media exposing a widespread online spying network set up by US intelligence agencies.

"What PRISM revealed was that with many of us being constantly connected online, the technology and the intention exist to track individuals' movements and monitor not just our online lives, but our physical whereabouts or confidential information," Dr Rickli said.

"The only person immune to this would be a caveman, someone completely unconnected to the online world who leaves no digital print."

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Favourite book: You Are the Placebo – Making your mind matter, by Dr Joe Dispenza

Hobby: Running and watching Welsh rugby

Travel destination: Cyprus in the summer

Life goals: To be an aspirational and passionate University educator, enjoy life, be healthy and be the best dad possible.

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

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Number of staff: 22 
 
Investment raised: $4 million 
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Group A: Palmeiras, Porto, Al Ahly, Inter Miami.

Group B: Paris Saint-Germain, Atletico Madrid, Botafogo, Seattle.

Group C: Bayern Munich, Auckland City, Boca Juniors, Benfica.

Group D: Flamengo, ES Tunis, Chelsea, Leon.

Group E: River Plate, Urawa, Monterrey, Inter Milan.

Group F: Fluminense, Borussia Dortmund, Ulsan, Mamelodi Sundowns.

Group G: Manchester City, Wydad, Al Ain, Juventus.

Group H: Real Madrid, Al Hilal, Pachuca, Salzburg.

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Europe’s rearming plan
  • Suspend strict budget rules to allow member countries to step up defence spending
  • Create new "instrument" providing €150 billion of loans to member countries for defence investment
  • Use the existing EU budget to direct more funds towards defence-related investment
  • Engage the bloc's European Investment Bank to drop limits on lending to defence firms
  • Create a savings and investments union to help companies access capital
Saudi Cup race day

Schedule in UAE time

5pm: Mohamed Yousuf Naghi Motors Cup (Turf), 5.35pm: 1351 Cup (T), 6.10pm: Longines Turf Handicap (T), 6.45pm: Obaiya Arabian Classic for Purebred Arabians (Dirt), 7.30pm: Jockey Club Handicap (D), 8.10pm: Samba Saudi Derby (D), 8.50pm: Saudia Sprint (D), 9.40pm: Saudi Cup (D)

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'Worse than a prison sentence'

Marie Byrne, a counsellor who volunteers at the UAE government's mental health crisis helpline, said the ordeal the crew had been through would take time to overcome.

“It was worse than a prison sentence, where at least someone can deal with a set amount of time incarcerated," she said.

“They were living in perpetual mystery as to how their futures would pan out, and what that would be.

“Because of coronavirus, the world is very different now to the one they left, that will also have an impact.

“It will not fully register until they are on dry land. Some have not seen their young children grow up while others will have to rebuild relationships.

“It will be a challenge mentally, and to find other work to support their families as they have been out of circulation for so long. Hopefully they will get the care they need when they get home.”

Results

6.30pm: Mazrat Al Ruwayah – Group 2 (PA) $36,000 (Dirt) 1,600m, Winner: RB Money To Burn, Tadhg O’Shea (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer)

7.05pm: Handicap (TB) $68,000 (Turf) 2,410m, Winner: Star Safari, William Buick, Charlie Appleby

7.40pm: Meydan Trophy – Conditions (TB) $50,000 (T) 1,900m, Winner: Secret Protector, William Buick, Charlie Appleby

8.15pm: Al Maktoum Challenge Round 2 - Group 2 (TB) $293,000 (D) 1,900m, Winner: Salute The Soldier, Adrie de Vries, Fawzi Nass

8.50pm: Al Rashidiya – Group 2 (TB) $163,000 (T) 1,800m, Winner: Zakouski, William Buick, Charlie Appleby

9.25pm: Handicap (TB) $65,000 (T) 1,000m, Winner: Motafaawit, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg

Tottenham v Ajax, Tuesday, 11pm (UAE).

Second leg

Ajax v Tottenham, Wednesday, May 8, 11pm

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A fraudulent investment operation where the scammer provides fake reports and generates returns for old investors through money paid by new investors, rather than through ligitimate business activities.