The coronavirus outbreak has emerged at a fragile moment for the world, Oxford historian Peter Frankopan said during an online talk with a senior Emirati diplomat.
Mr Frankopan, a professor of global history at Oxford University and author of The New Silk Roads, said the pandemic had highlighted tensions between two of the world's superpowers, China and the United States.
The discussion between Mr Frankopan and UAE diplomat Omar Ghobash was the first webinar in The Future of Diplomacy series by the Office of Public and Cultural Diplomacy.
The talks explore the future of a world transformed by coronavirus and will be hosted by Mr Ghobash, the Assistant Minister of Public and Cultural Diplomacy.
More than 800 viewers from 28 countries logged into the late-night address, which began with a simple question: is a return to business as usual possible, or even desirable?
“We are in a hyper-fragile phase globally and this disease, from the perspective of a historian, couldn’t have come at a worse time,” said Mr Frankopan.
“This has come out when we are at a point when the two biggest economies of the world, the US and China, are extremely adversarial and confrontation can spill into something very dangerous.”
But there is opportunity for smaller states, new talent and ideas.
“You keep hearing this is a very difficult era or these are unprecedented times,” said Mr Frankopan. “That’s not even true in the context of the last 100 years, let alone over the course of one or two thousand years.”
“One of the big takeaways is there is no going back to normal, there is no world that once was. If you could turn the clock back, you wouldn’t want to and you can’t.”
As economic pressures grow, people will demand change from the elite.
Two narratives typically emerge after pandemics, said Mr Frankopan, one of co-operation, the other of isolation. Covid-19 came at a divisive moment in history, in a year that began with Brexit and bush fires. The historian warned that the trauma of a pandemic can be fertile ground for populist rhetoric celebrating a mythical past.
“When you turn the clock back in the past, you specifically favour men, always, and you specifically favour rich men.”
Absent at present is talk of co-operation between major powers and this presents an opportunity for ‘smaller, more nimble states’, said Mr Frankopan.
“We've got a new world order now. A lot of the movement in working towards these collaborations and co-operations are by, what would be called 20 or 30 years ago, new players to the game. That speaks of a different order.”
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Family members and visitors gather outside patient Isaias Perez Yanez's room at Sharp Coronado Hospital, California. Covid-19 patients are not allowed to have visitors for safety reasons but family members and visitors are able to view and communicate with Yanez from outside the window. Getty Images/AFP -
A vendor checks his mobile phone as he sells balloons along a street during a government-imposed nationwide lockdown in Quetta, Pakistan. AFP -
Workers sew disposable surgical gowns for health workers at a garment factory in Yangon. The factory produces 1,000 medical gowns per day to address the shortage of protective personal equipment as Myanmar battles the coronavirus pandemic. AFP -
Indian citizens arriving from Dubai by an Air India flight, arrive at the Anna International Airport as part of a massive repatriation effort, in Chennai on May 9, 2020. AFP -
Indian citizens evacuated from Dubai by Air India flight, arrive at the Anna International Airport as part of a massive repatriation effort, in Chennai on May 9, 2020. AFP -
A worker sews disposable surgical gowns for health workers at a garment factory in Yangon. AFP -
Family members watch from outside COVID-19 patient Isaias Perez Yanez's room, as he is assessed by occupational therapist Jaclyn Lien in the Progressive Care Unit (PCU) at Sharp Coronado Hospital, California. Getty Images/AFP -
Malian migrant worker Tidjane attends a teleconsultation at a special medical unit set up outside a building housing migrant workers as part of a private initiative supported by the Paris city hall, in Paris. AFP -
Stylists wear protective masks and gloves while working on customer's hair at a Belazza salon in Tucson, Arizona, US. Bloomberg -
Isaias Perez Yanez, 59, in wheelchair, is hugged and applauded by family and hospital staff as he is released from Sharp Coronado Hospital in Coronado, California. Getty Images/AFP -
Muslim students wearing face masks practice social distancing while reading Quran at Daarul Qur'an Al Kautsar boarding school mosque in Bogor, West Java province, Indonesia. Reuters -
A general view of Tranzit Bus Depot in Wellington, New Zealand. Getty Images -
Senior Yard Supervisor Lipi Vitolio the windows of a bus at Tranzit Bus Depot in Wellington, New Zealand. The New Zealand government will decide whether to move to Covid-19 Alert Level 2 and ease further restrictions on Monday, 11 May. Getty Images -
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Members of the Mothers of False Positives (Mafapo) civil organization wear face masks reading “Who gave the order?” against the spread of the novel coronavirus in Soacha, Colombia. Thousands of extrajudicial executions known as "false positives" were carried out in the biggest scandal of the Colombian military forces in their struggle of more than half a century against rebel groups. The mothers of the victims found in the making of face masks a way to make their cause visible. AFP -
People walk on a road decorated with lights and lanterns on the Vesak Day, which is celebrated in Sri Lanka on May 7th and 8th to commemorate the birth, enlightenment and death of Buddha, in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Reuters -
Muslims attend Friday prayer at the Baitul Mokarram National Mosque after the government eased the restrictions amid concerns over the coronavirus outbreak in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Reuters -
In Russian, from left, English, French and German, the Brandenburg Gate is illuminated with the word "Thank you," in Berlin, Germany. May 8th marked the 75th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. AP
This applies to the Emirates, said Mr Ghobash. Early in the pandemic, public and private sector extended the UAE’s trade and diplomatic connections to provide aid to both allies and less friendly nations, like Iran.
“We saw it as a diplomatic opportunity to pursue relationships with people who weren’t particularly friendly to us because disease actually unites us all, it doesn’t respect any boundaries.”
Smaller states can take initiatives, he noted.
“I don’t think small states need to necessarily wait for global powers to say, ‘Ok, we’re going to back this initiative’. If we want to solve a particular problem, we’re not going to wait for everybody else to join in.”
Countries that experienced rapid economic growth responded well to the pandemic because of their embrace of new technologies, observed Mr Frankopan.
“It’s very conspicuous that in countries like South Korea, Singapore, problems have been solved not just by doctors wearing medical equipment but by AI and apps that allow contact tracing,” he said.
Western states should have sought advice early on, said Mr Frankopan.
In this regard, the UAE’s diplomatic relationship proved beneficial to its response to the pandemic, said Mr Ghobash. “I think those relationships allowed us to call up Beijing and say, what’s going on? What do we need to do to make sure this doesn’t spread?”
The pandemic could provide openings for new talent and attitudes at both local and global levels.
“It’s a real opportunity to be able to find oxygen, to have discussions that perhaps couldn’t happen a year or two ago,” said Mr Frankopan. “That’s the case in China as well, and we sort of forget that. We sort of assume these are monolithic structures that are resistant to change.”
Ultimately, history teaches us the human capacity for resilience.
“We’re highly creative, we’re good in a crisis, when we get things wrong, we re-group.”
The next talk features Iranian-American foreign policy scholar Vali Nasr and will be on Monday, May 18. Register here.
