Champions League permutations: Who needs what to reach last 16, who joins Europa League?

We take a look at what is still up for grabs going into the final round of games in this season's group stage

Kieran Trippier's Newcastle United will go through as group runners-up if they beat Milan and PSG do not beat Dortmund. PA
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It is time for the final round of Champions League group stage matches and there is still plenty to be decided in European football's premier club competition.

There are 12 teams already safely through to the last 16 while another 10 sides will battle it out for the four remaining spots in the knockout stages.

The top two teams from each group qualify for the next stage, while the clubs that finish third drop down into the Europa League knockout round play-offs. European football is over this season for those unfortunates left bottom of the pile.

Below, we take a look at the permutations of each group to see who can still keep alive their Champions League dream

Tuesday's fixtures: Manchester United v Bayern Munich, Copenhagen v Galatasaray (both midnight kick off, UAE).

German champions Bayern Munich are already through as group winners but everything else is still in the mix with regards to the rest.

FC Copenhagen can secure second spot if they beat Galatasaray, or if they draw, and United do not beat Bayern at Old Trafford. The Danes will finish third and enter the Europa League play-offs if they draw and United win, or if both Copenhagen and United lose.

Copenhagen could potentially also finish third if they lose and United draw, with the final rankings of the two teams determined first by overall goal difference, then overall goals scored, then overall away goals scored (which would mean Copenhagen finish fourth).

Galatasaray will go through to the next round as runners-up if they beat Copenhagen. Galatasaray will finish third and enter the Europa League if both they and United fail to win.

Manchester United will go through as runners-up if they beat Bayern and the other game is drawn. United will finish third and enter the Europa League if they win and the other game is not drawn. United could potentially also finish third if they draw and Copenhagen lose, with the final rankings of the two teams determined first by overall goal difference, then overall goals scored, then overall away goals scored (which would mean United finish third).

Tuesday's fixtures: Lens v Sevilla, PSV Eindhoven v Arsenal (both 9:45pm kick off, UAE).

Top two are already decided in this one with Arsenal through as group winners ahead of second-placed PSV Eindhoven.

Lens will finish third and join the Europa League knockout round play-offs if they avoid defeat by Sevilla, while the Spanish club will go through if they beat the French side.

Tuesday's fixtures: Union Berlin v Real Madrid, Napoli v Sporting Braga (both midnight kick off, UAE).

Top spot is already in the bag for 14-time European champions Real Madrid.

Napoli will go through to the last-16 as runners-up if they avoid defeat against Braga by two goals or more. Otherwise, they will finish in third and drop down to the Europa League.

Braga will go through as group runners-up if they beat Napoli by two goals or more. Braga will finish third and enter the Europa League if they win by a margin of one goal or draw, or even if they lose providing Union Berlin do not beat Madrid.

Union Berlin will finish third and join the Europa League if they beat Real Madrid and Napoli defeat Braga.

Tuesday's fixtures: RB Salzburg v Benfica, Inter Milan v Real Sociedad (both midnight kick off, UAE).

While Real Sociedad and Inter Milan are through to the knockout stages, top spot is still up for grabs for whoever wins when the two clash in Italy.

Salzburg will finish third and drop down to the Europa League play-offs if they avoid defeat against Benfica by two goals or more.

Benfica will finish third and enter the Europa League if they beat Salzburg by a margin of two goals or more.

Wednesday's fixtures: Atletico Madrid v Lazio, Celtic v Feyenoord (both midnight kick off, UAE).

Top spot is also still up for grabs in Group E with Atletico Madrid and Lazio both through, with the Spaniards needing to avoid defeat against the Italians. Lazio will finish first if they beat Atletico in the Spanish capital.

Feyenoord have sealed third place and a spot in the Europa League while Celtic will finish rock bottom.

Wednesday's fixtures: Borussia Dortmund v Paris Saint-Germain, Newcastle United v AC Milan (both midnight kick off, UAE).

Lots still to play for in Group F. Borussia Dortmund are through and will finish as table-toppers if they avoid defeat against Paris Saint-Germain.

PSG are through to the last 16 as group winners if they beat Dortmund. PSG will also go through as runners-up if they draw and Newcastle do not beat AC Milan, or even if PSG lose, should Newcastle and Milan draw. Otherwise, Paris will finish third and drop down to the Europa League.

Newcastle will go through as group runners-up if they beat Milan and PSG do not beat Dortmund. Newcastle will finish third and enter the Europa League if both they and Paris win, or if Newcastle draw.

Milan will go through to the knockout stages as runners-up if they beat Newcastle and PSG lose to Dortmund. The Italians will finish third and join the Europa League if they win and PSG avoid defeat.

Wednesday's fixtures: Red Star Belgrade v Manchester City, RB Leipzig v Young Boys (both 9:45pm kick off, UAE).

In Group G the final round of games are all dead rubbers. Manchester City are through as group winners.

Leipzig are through to the last-16 as runners-up, while Young Boys will finish third and join the Europa League play-offs.

Crvena Zvezda will finish bottom.

Wednesday's fixtures: FC Porto v Shakhtar Donetsk, Royal Antwerp v Barcelona (both midnight kick off, UAE).

Barcelona are through and will finish top if they avoid defeat against Antwerp or if Shakhtar Donetsk do not beat Porto. If Barcelona lose and Shakhtar win, first place will be determined by overall goal difference, then overall goals scored, then overall away goals scored.

Porto will finish as group runners-up if they avoid defeat by Shakhtar.

Shakhtar will go through if they beat Porto. Shakhtar could potentially finish first if they win and Barcelona lose, with the final rankings of the two teams then determined by overall goal difference, then overall goals scored, then overall away goals scored.

Antwerp will finish bottom potentially without winning a single point.

Updated: December 13, 2023, 6:56 AM