Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks in Youngstown, Ohio, Monday, Aug. 15, 2016. (Gerald Herbert / AP Photo
Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks in Youngstown, Ohio, Monday, Aug. 15, 2016. (Gerald Herbert / AP Photo

Opinion

Trump’s vision to defeat ISIL

The candidate’s plan to overcome extremism doesn’t focus enough on the ideology battle

National Editorial

August 16, 2016

Donald Trump is no stranger to controversy. From spurious claims about Mexicans to mocking the disabled, Mr Trump has repeatedly outdone himself with over-the-top behaviour during the US presidential election. The Republican candidate’s comments on Islam, Muslims and the Middle East have been among his most incendiary.

He is now getting serious about policy in this region and we are paying close attention. After a week in which he claimed that American president Barack Obama and the Democratic Party nominee Hillary Clinton had founded ISIL – he later walked backed the comments – Mr Trump laid out his plan to defeat ISIL.

Mr Trump chronicled the dramatic rise of ISIL over the past five years. He then proposed that any Muslim immigrants, including refugees fleeing Syria, would be subject to “extreme vetting” and ideological tests. The ease at which Mr Trump lumped his ideas on combating extremism with the refugee crisis is a point of concern, as they are not connected issues. Linking them could send the wrong message to the candidate’s emboldened supporters.

Calling for increased use of drones and additional detentions in Guantanamo Bay, Mr Trump’s vision for the future is one of conflict and war. While the military campaign against ISIL is a critical part of the fight against the extremism, it is one part of a multifaceted assault on the group. Destroying ISIL’s ideology through cooperation among countries and counter-messaging campaigns is ultimately the most important and difficult part of this fight.

That is why the US and the UAE have joined forces with initiatives such the Sawab Centre in Abu Dhabi, which counters ISIL’s social media messaging. While Mr Trump vowed to work with moderate countries in the region, his insistance that the fight against ISIL is primarily on the battlefield misses the mark. Mr Trump, more than most, understands the value of messaging and branding. The fight against extremism is one of values and messages. If we focus too much on the battlefield, we run the risk of losing the larger war for hearts and minds.

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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”