When Donald Trump was elected almost a year ago, many Americans could not imagine that the words "president" and "Trump" could be combined. There were predictions that with Republican control of both houses of Congress, Mr Trump would turn the country upside down. Liberals were eyeing Canada as a possible bolthole.
In fact, the term “president Trump” has now become almost normal. The country and the world has got used to the president being his own communications chief, setting the media agenda with early morning tweets that his spokeswoman has to pick up and follow.
The world also understands that there is a low-level civil war in Washington, with the major newspapers ditching their usual respect for the presidency and going into battle against the White House's bending of the truth. Much of Washington is hostile territory for Mr Trump, who is the subject of a painstaking investigation into alleged collusion between his campaign team and Russia.
Meanwhile, the Republicans in Congress are in an anguish of indecision, unwilling to take a stand against him for fear of the vengeance of his voters at next year's mid-term elections.
The outcome is perhaps not surprising given that Mr Trump grew up in the world of New York real estate, where bombast is an accepted part of deal-making, and perfected his skills on reality TV, where no one holds you to what you said in the past.
The big question is what effect this unstable presidency will have on the world. It is worth looking at it through three different lenses – politics, policy and law.
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In terms of politics, Mr Trump has, indeed, proven to be the great disruptor – though more often than not of his own agenda. Even with the tradition of a new administration taking months to bed in, Mr Trump has failed to pass any significant legislation. His campaign promise to build a big wall along the Mexican border is still unfunded.
In effect, he is a third-party president, with all the problems that entails in passing legislation or finding candidates to fill posts in the administration. His approval rate is 39 per cent, exceptionally low given that the US economy is performing well.
When it comes to policy, particularly on foreign affairs, the picture is rather different. Whenever foreign policy wonks gather for a conference, the tone of the discussion is one of despair at the president's lack of strategic vision and his insistence that America is being taken for a ride by its allies. At such conferences, a token Trump supporter is usually invited to tell the experts to calm down: ignore the tweets and the media storms and look at policy and you will see that little has changed.
There is some truth in this tale of continuity. Mr Trump's great foreign policy promise to improve relations with Russia is in ruins and the Washington establishment is back in its comfort zone, where Moscow is the enemy. Similarly, the deep hostility to Iran that Barack Obama tried to overturn has returned to centre stage.
Look more closely, however, and there is a sense of drift in foreign policy, most notably in Iraq, where Iran and Russia are making gains at the expense of Washington. The disarray has invigorated China's Xi Jinping, who is now talking of China taking its place at the centre of world affairs, with its authoritarian style of government replacing America's model of liberal democracy.
If there is to be major international disruption, it may be in trade, which seems to be foremost on the president’s mind, focused on creating American jobs. There is speculation that the Trump administration could end up killing off the World Trade Organisation, enabling Washington to make its own rules rather than abide by the international body’s adjudications.
Experience, however, suggests that Mr Trump prefers to approach such major issues with more caution than you might expect: he has stopped short of denouncing the Iran nuclear agreement – which he has called “the worst deal ever” – leaving Congress to decide what action to take.
All of this, however, depends on Mr Trump remaining in power. He is currently pursued by Robert Mueller, former FBI director, who is looking for evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia to keep Hillary Clinton, the Democratic contender, out of power.
When Mr Mueller indicted Mr Trump’s former campaign manager, Paul Manafort, for money-laundering, tax evasion and failing to register as a foreign agent, the president triumphantly tweeted “there is no collusion”.
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Read more on US foreign policy in Opinion
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In Afghanistan, Trump's grand strategy begins to fall apart
Fighting fake news cannot be trivialised. It is the scourge of our times, the struggle of our era
If the US wants to support Iraq, it needs to be honest about Kirkuk
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In this, he was correct. No hard evidence of collusion with Russia has emerged, but Mr Mueller could be digging away for years.
Mr Trump can be impeached only by Congress, now solidly in the hands of the Republicans, so that is unlikely at this stage. But the threat of the dogged sleuth hangs over Mr Trump.
As Mr Trump embarks on a 12-day tour of Asia today, some will be asking a more urgent question: will he be tempted to engage in some military action because he is blocked at home in his domestic agenda? When Bill Clinton was threatened with impeachment in 1988 for perjury, he launched an attack on Iraq known as Operation Desert Fox. News channels gleefully split their screens to cover the simultaneous events.
Despite the disarray in the White House, Washington generally takes comfort in the presence of military men around Mr Trump – his chief-of-staff, John Kelly, is a retired Marine Corps general, as is his defence secretary. His national security adviser is a serving army officer, and the secretaries of the navy and army are an ex-Marine and an ex-army Ranger.
These are said to be wise heads who know the cost of war. But they are also used to taking orders. The truth is that never has civilian control of the military been weaker. This may turn out to be the most significant change that Mr Trump has instituted.
Alan Philps is a commentator on global affairs
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The specs: 2019 Mercedes-Benz GLE
Price, base / as tested Dh274,000 (estimate)
Engine 3.0-litre inline six-cylinder
Gearbox Nine-speed automatic
Power 245hp @ 4,200rpm
Torque 500Nm @ 1,600rpm
Fuel economy, combined 6.4L / 100km
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
More from Neighbourhood Watch:
MATCH SCHEDULE
Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg
Tuesday, April 24 (10.45pm)
Liverpool v Roma
Wednesday, April 25
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (10.45pm)
Europa League semi-final, first leg
Thursday, April 26
Arsenal v Atletico Madrid (11.05pm)
Marseille v Salzburg (11.05pm)
The five pillars of Islam
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The specs: 2019 Haval H6
Price, base: Dh69,900
Engine: 2.0-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 197hp @ 5,500rpm
Torque: 315Nm @ 2,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 7.0L / 100km
UK-EU trade at a glance
EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years
Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products
Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries
Smoother border management with use of e-gates
Cutting red tape on import and export of food
Results:
First Test: New Zealand 30 British & Irish Lions 15
Second Test: New Zealand 21 British & Irish Lions 24
Third Test: New Zealand 15 British & Irish Lions 15
57%20Seconds
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About Krews
Founder: Ahmed Al Qubaisi
Based: Abu Dhabi
Founded: January 2019
Number of employees: 10
Sector: Technology/Social media
Funding to date: Estimated $300,000 from Hub71 in-kind support
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MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
TOUCH RULES
Touch is derived from rugby league. Teams consist of up to 14 players with a maximum of six on the field at any time.
Teams can make as many substitutions as they want during the 40 minute matches.
Similar to rugby league, the attacking team has six attempts - or touches - before possession changes over.
A touch is any contact between the player with the ball and a defender, and must be with minimum force.
After a touch the player performs a “roll-ball” - similar to the play-the-ball in league - stepping over or rolling the ball between the feet.
At the roll-ball, the defenders have to retreat a minimum of five metres.
A touchdown is scored when an attacking player places the ball on or over the score-line.
ACL Elite (West) - fixtures
Monday, Sept 30
Al Sadd v Esteghlal (8pm)
Persepolis v Pakhtakor (8pm)
Al Wasl v Al Ahli (8pm)
Al Nassr v Al Rayyan (10pm)
Tuesday, Oct 1
Al Hilal v Al Shorta (10pm)
Al Gharafa v Al Ain (10pm)
The rules on fostering in the UAE
A foster couple or family must:
- be Muslim, Emirati and be residing in the UAE
- not be younger than 25 years old
- not have been convicted of offences or crimes involving moral turpitude
- be free of infectious diseases or psychological and mental disorders
- have the ability to support its members and the foster child financially
- undertake to treat and raise the child in a proper manner and take care of his or her health and well-being
- A single, divorced or widowed Muslim Emirati female, residing in the UAE may apply to foster a child if she is at least 30 years old and able to support the child financially
If you go
Flight connections to Ulaanbaatar are available through a variety of hubs, including Seoul and Beijing, with airlines including Mongolian Airlines and Korean Air. While some nationalities, such as Americans, don’t need a tourist visa for Mongolia, others, including UAE citizens, can obtain a visa on arrival, while others including UK citizens, need to obtain a visa in advance. Contact the Mongolian Embassy in the UAE for more information.
Nomadic Road offers expedition-style trips to Mongolia in January and August, and other destinations during most other months. Its nine-day August 2020 Mongolia trip will cost from $5,250 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, two nights’ hotel accommodation in Ulaanbaatar, vehicle rental, fuel, third party vehicle liability insurance, the services of a guide and support team, accommodation, food and entrance fees; nomadicroad.com
A fully guided three-day, two-night itinerary at Three Camel Lodge costs from $2,420 per person based on two sharing, including airport transfers, accommodation, meals and excursions including the Yol Valley and Flaming Cliffs. A return internal flight from Ulaanbaatar to Dalanzadgad costs $300 per person and the flight takes 90 minutes each way; threecamellodge.com
Quick pearls of wisdom
Focus on gratitude: And do so deeply, he says. “Think of one to three things a day that you’re grateful for. It needs to be specific, too, don’t just say ‘air.’ Really think about it. If you’re grateful for, say, what your parents have done for you, that will motivate you to do more for the world.”
Know how to fight: Shetty married his wife, Radhi, three years ago (he met her in a meditation class before he went off and became a monk). He says they’ve had to learn to respect each other’s “fighting styles” – he’s a talk it-out-immediately person, while she needs space to think. “When you’re having an argument, remember, it’s not you against each other. It’s both of you against the problem. When you win, they lose. If you’re on a team you have to win together.”
List of officials:
Referees: Chris Broad, David Boon, Jeff Crowe, Andy Pycroft, Ranjan Madugalle and Richie Richardson.
Umpires: Aleem Dar, Kumara Dharmasena, Marais Erasmus, Chris Gaffaney, Ian Gould, Richard Illingworth, Richard Kettleborough, Nigel Llong, Bruce Oxenford, Ruchira Palliyaguruge, Sundaram Ravi, Paul Reiffel, Rod Tucker, Michael Gough, Joel Wilson and Paul Wilson.
CREW
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.