The internal debate regarding the Trump administration's policy towards Iran is coming to a head. A sensible – and indeed significantly improved – American approach is now competing with foolish and potentially disastrous impulses. The coming weeks will provide very strong indications of which will prevail.
US president Donald Trump, UN ambassador Nikki Haley and others are pushing for an aggressive confrontation with Tehran. An improvement over Barack Obama's policies is clearly required, but their approach would surely be a dangerous over-correction.
This faction wants Washington to either abandon or sabotage the nuclear deal, beginning by at least declining to certify to Congress next month that Iran is in compliance with its obligations. That could easily lead to the unraveling of an arrangement that is, by all accounts, effectively restraining Iran's programme to develop nuclear weapons.
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While limited strictly to nuclear issues, the deal is working so far. It makes no sense for Washington to scupper it. That’s a dream scenario for Iranian hardliners. They would have managed to get rid of the international sanctions by reaching a deal with Mr Obama, only to be relieved of their commitments by Mr Trump. Heads they win, tails we lose.
And it would be especially damaging, well beyond Iran-related issues, to American credibility and international leadership if Washington is perceived by the other global powers as having unilaterally and capriciously undone years of painstaking multilateral diplomacy, particularly if there is no plausible alternative stratagem that makes sense to anyone outside of the White House.
Thankfully, there are strong signs that a second administration faction, which wisely urges maintaining the nuclear agreement, while intensifying a range of other pressures and countermeasures against Iran, may be winning the day.
Defence secretary Jim Mattis, secretary of state Rex Tillerson, national security adviser HR McMaster and others presented a plan for such an approach at a recent National Security Council meeting.
Their proposal is designed to preserve the gains secured by the nuclear agreement and avoid the harm that scrapping or sabotaging it would cause to American interests, while intensifying policies designed to confront Iran's persistent destabilising policies.
These would include continued or expanded economic sanctions addressing a variety of non-nuclear issues, including Tehran's support for terrorism. Washington would intensify efforts to interdict Iranian weapons shipments to violent extremist organisations such as the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza and radicals in Sinai.
The plan also proposes strengthened US engagement in Bahrain, particularly as evidence of Iranian-inspired and supported violent radicalism on the island continues to mount. The proposal also advocates that US naval forces react more aggressively if confronted or harassed by Iranian speedboats in international waters.
From what is known so far, this plan hardly seems perfect. It does not, for example, suggest doing anything serious to reverse Iran's domination of Syria, instead maintaining an exclusive focus on ISIL. It also fails to recognise the need or value of exploring potential grounds for US-Iranian cooperation. But it would help to correct some weaknesses of the Obama approach without the kind of reckless overreach Mr Trump has suggested.
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More on Iran in Opinion
Washington's vow to revise strategy towards Tehran is welcome
If the US walks away from the Iran nuclear deal, it will live to regret it
The nuclear deal has failed to curb Iran's weapons programme
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If such a relatively sophisticated approach ends up guiding Washington's stance on Iran, it would mark an improvement over Mr Obama's baffling naivety, while avoiding impulsiveness and rash mistakes.
In an encouraging sign that this comparatively nuanced perspective may be starting to prevail, Mr Trump on Thursday declined to re-impose some major sanctions against Iran, allowing a congressionally-mandated deadline for him to act to expire.
Moreover, Mr Tillerson is scheduled to meet with Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif at a September 20 meeting of the nuclear deal signatories.
In June, Mr Tillerson caused outrage in Tehran by suggesting Washington is seeking regime change as a long-term outcome in Iran. Next week's meeting could be a useful opportunity to clear the air.
A sophisticated approach to Iran would have to include balancing the virtues of sticking with the nuclear agreement – as long as it is really being implemented – and confronting Tehran over its aggressive and destabilising conduct.
But it also requires pursuing avenues of co-operation and confrontation with an eye to promoting, at the very least, significant and long-term strategic policy change, if not full regime change, in Iran.
That means, above all, recognising that Iran is neither a policy monolith, nor is it politically homogenous. Much of the population appears to want a very different approach to the outside world than the ruling faction. Even within the establishment, there are significant differences over strategy, foreign policy and basic international attitudes, and it matters which prevails.
Any major decision regarding Iran should involve a serious evaluation of how it will impact strategic thinking, decision-making and the balance of power within Iran. That is why a calibrated approach towards Tehran that avoids both Mr Obama's reticence and Mr Trump's recklessness would be greatly welcome. It may not be perfect, but the new plan is an important step in the right direction.
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Pakistanis at the ILT20
The new UAE league has been boosted this season by the arrival of five Pakistanis, who were not released to play last year.
Shaheen Afridi (Desert Vipers)
Set for at least four matches, having arrived from New Zealand where he captained Pakistan in a series loss.
Shadab Khan (Desert Vipers)
The leg-spin bowling allrounder missed the tour of New Zealand after injuring an ankle when stepping on a ball.
Azam Khan (Desert Vipers)
Powerhouse wicketkeeper played three games for Pakistan on tour in New Zealand. He was the first Pakistani recruited to the ILT20.
Mohammed Amir (Desert Vipers)
Has made himself unavailable for national duty, meaning he will be available for the entire ILT20 campaign.
Imad Wasim (Abu Dhabi Knight Riders)
The left-handed allrounder, 35, retired from international cricket in November and was subsequently recruited by the Knight Riders.
Sarfira
Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad
Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal
Rating: 2/5
Company profile
Date started: January 2022
Founders: Omar Abu Innab, Silvia Eldawi, Walid Shihabi
Based: Dubai
Sector: PropTech / investment
Employees: 40
Stage: Seed
Investors: Multiple
DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE
Starring: Ryan Reynolds, Hugh Jackman, Emma Corrin
Director: Shawn Levy
Rating: 3/5
ROUTE TO TITLE
Round 1: Beat Leolia Jeanjean 6-1, 6-2
Round 2: Beat Naomi Osaka 7-6, 1-6, 7-5
Round 3: Beat Marie Bouzkova 6-4, 6-2
Round 4: Beat Anastasia Potapova 6-0, 6-0
Quarter-final: Beat Marketa Vondrousova 6-0, 6-2
Semi-final: Beat Coco Gauff 6-2, 6-4
Final: Beat Jasmine Paolini 6-2, 6-2
MATCH INFO
BRIGHTON 0
MANCHESTER UNITED 3
McTominay 44'
Mata 73'
Pogba 80'
If you go...
Etihad Airways flies from Abu Dhabi to Kuala Lumpur, from about Dh3,600. Air Asia currently flies from Kuala Lumpur to Terengganu, with Berjaya Hotels & Resorts planning to launch direct chartered flights to Redang Island in the near future. Rooms at The Taaras Beach and Spa Resort start from 680RM (Dh597).
IF YOU GO
The flights
FlyDubai flies direct from Dubai to Skopje in five hours from Dh1,314 return including taxes. Hourly buses from Skopje to Ohrid take three hours.
The tours
English-speaking guided tours of Ohrid town and the surrounding area are organised by Cultura 365; these cost €90 (Dh386) for a one-day trip including driver and guide and €100 a day (Dh429) for two people.
The hotels
Villa St Sofija in the old town of Ohrid, twin room from $54 (Dh198) a night.
St Naum Monastery, on the lake 30km south of Ohrid town, has updated its pilgrims' quarters into a modern 3-star hotel, with rooms overlooking the monastery courtyard and lake. Double room from $60 (Dh 220) a night.
A new relationship with the old country
Treaty of Friendship between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates
The United kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates; Considering that the United Arab Emirates has assumed full responsibility as a sovereign and independent State; Determined that the long-standing and traditional relations of close friendship and cooperation between their peoples shall continue; Desiring to give expression to this intention in the form of a Treaty Friendship; Have agreed as follows:
ARTICLE 1 The relations between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates shall be governed by a spirit of close friendship. In recognition of this, the Contracting Parties, conscious of their common interest in the peace and stability of the region, shall: (a) consult together on matters of mutual concern in time of need; (b) settle all their disputes by peaceful means in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.
ARTICLE 2 The Contracting Parties shall encourage education, scientific and cultural cooperation between the two States in accordance with arrangements to be agreed. Such arrangements shall cover among other things: (a) the promotion of mutual understanding of their respective cultures, civilisations and languages, the promotion of contacts among professional bodies, universities and cultural institutions; (c) the encouragement of technical, scientific and cultural exchanges.
ARTICLE 3 The Contracting Parties shall maintain the close relationship already existing between them in the field of trade and commerce. Representatives of the Contracting Parties shall meet from time to time to consider means by which such relations can be further developed and strengthened, including the possibility of concluding treaties or agreements on matters of mutual concern.
ARTICLE 4 This Treaty shall enter into force on today’s date and shall remain in force for a period of ten years. Unless twelve months before the expiry of the said period of ten years either Contracting Party shall have given notice to the other of its intention to terminate the Treaty, this Treaty shall remain in force thereafter until the expiry of twelve months from the date on which notice of such intention is given.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned have signed this Treaty.
DONE in duplicate at Dubai the second day of December 1971AD, corresponding to the fifteenth day of Shawwal 1391H, in the English and Arabic languages, both texts being equally authoritative.
Signed
Geoffrey Arthur Sheikh Zayed
‘FSO Safer’ - a ticking bomb
The Safer has been moored off the Yemeni coast of Ras Issa since 1988.
The Houthis have been blockading UN efforts to inspect and maintain the vessel since 2015, when the war between the group and the Yemen government, backed by the Saudi-led coalition began.
Since then, a handful of people acting as a skeleton crew, have performed rudimentary maintenance work to keep the Safer intact.
The Safer is connected to a pipeline from the oil-rich city of Marib, and was once a hub for the storage and export of crude oil.
The Safer’s environmental and humanitarian impact may extend well beyond Yemen, experts believe, into the surrounding waters of Saudi Arabia, Djibouti and Eritrea, impacting marine-life and vital infrastructure like desalination plans and fishing ports.
Ramy: Season 3, Episode 1
Creators: Ari Katcher, Ryan Welch, Ramy Youssef
Stars: Ramy Youssef, Amr Waked, Mohammed Amer
Rating: 4/5
UAE medallists at Asian Games 2023
Gold
Magomedomar Magomedomarov – Judo – Men’s +100kg
Khaled Al Shehi – Jiu-jitsu – Men’s -62kg
Faisal Al Ketbi – Jiu-jitsu – Men’s -85kg
Asma Al Hosani – Jiu-jitsu – Women’s -52kg
Shamma Al Kalbani – Jiu-jitsu – Women’s -63kg
Silver
Omar Al Marzooqi – Equestrian – Individual showjumping
Bishrelt Khorloodoi – Judo – Women’s -52kg
Khalid Al Blooshi – Jiu-jitsu – Men’s -62kg
Mohamed Al Suwaidi – Jiu-jitsu – Men’s -69kg
Balqees Abdulla – Jiu-jitsu – Women’s -48kg
Bronze
Hawraa Alajmi – Karate – Women’s kumite -50kg
Ahmed Al Mansoori – Cycling – Men’s omnium
Abdullah Al Marri – Equestrian – Individual showjumping
Team UAE – Equestrian – Team showjumping
Dzhafar Kostoev – Judo – Men’s -100kg
Narmandakh Bayanmunkh – Judo – Men’s -66kg
Grigorian Aram – Judo – Men’s -90kg
Mahdi Al Awlaqi – Jiu-jitsu – Men’s -77kg
Saeed Al Kubaisi – Jiu-jitsu – Men’s -85kg
Shamsa Al Ameri – Jiu-jitsu – Women’s -57kg
Russia's Muslim Heartlands
Dominic Rubin, Oxford
SPECS
Engine: 2-litre 4-cylinder turbo and 3.6-litre V6
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 235hp and 310hp
Torque: 258Nm and 271Nm
Price: From Dh185,100
The biog
Hobby: "It is not really a hobby but I am very curious person. I love reading and spend hours on research."
Favourite author: Malcom Gladwell
Favourite travel destination: "Antigua in the Caribbean because I have emotional attachment to it. It is where I got married."
