It's now taken as a given that Bashar Al Assad will not be removed from power by the actions of the Syrian opposition. Russian and Iranian military intervention, coupled with western diffidence about what his departure would have meant, undermined any military solution that might have ousted the Syrian president from office.
However, an alternative question merits being asked. Is Mr Al Assad's political future at greater risk once the Syrian conflict ends? This may not be asludicrous as it sounds.
There are several reasons that could make such a scenario possible. First, that once the war in Syria ends, both Iran and Russia will want to stabilise Syria by ensuring it is reintegrated into the Arab fold. For as long as Mr Al Assad is president, such a process is likely to be seriously hindered.
Second, Syria will need massive amounts of money to be rebuilt after its war, a step that would be needed to reinforce any post-war settlement. Without major investment in reconstruction, the political order defended by Russia and Iran will remain fragile, very likely undermining their desire to consolidate Mr Al Assad's rule in a way that would spare them the need to do so on their own for years to come.
And third, in a post-conflict Syria the cost of replacing Mr Al Assad may be considerably less than it would be if the fighting were ongoing. The reality is that even if Moscow and Tehran had ever seriously contemplated removing Mr Al Assad after the uprising began, they didn't know how to do so in a way that would have preserved their interests, because the violence would have been precluded a smooth transition.
However, once the fighting ends, it is conceivable that a way could be found to ease Mr Al Assad out, in collaboration with the centres of power that had supported his regime. The advantage would be to get rid of a man whose continued presence represents a persistent obstacle to national reconciliation and normalisation of the Syrian state.
MORE FROM MICHAEL YOUNG
The US must think twice about halting military support for the Lebanese army
Obama was bad for the Middle East, but Trump's ambiguity is worrisome
Lebanon is now in the crosshairs of some complex regional rivalries
This could involve finding a replacement for Mr Al Assad who would reassure those networks of officials in the security and military apparatus that Russia and Iran wish to keep in place. In this context, the recent Russian decision to present a ceremonial sword to Suheil Al Hassan, commander of the regime’s Tiger Force, led to speculation as to the true symbolism of the event, regardless of what the real Russian intent was.
However, several factors are likely to work against a transition away from Mr Al Assad. For starters, the Syrian president has never been so vulnerable and dependent, which represents a major advantage to his foreign protectors, Iran in particular. A new Syrian leader, on the contrary, could potentially be empowered to impose himself as a more independent figure, to bolster his national legitimacy.
A second mitigating factor is that Mr Al Assad is likely to resist any efforts to push him out. This can include eliminating potential rivals physically, as has happened with other Syrian security officials in the past decade, or simply blocking measures that Russia or Iran, or both, could not ignore. The Syrian president, and the people immediately around him who would lose out if he were to fall, still have the means to be spoilers.
MORE FROM OPINION ON SYRIA
The cult of Bashar Al Assad extends from the far-right to the far-left
Obama's failure to enforce his "red line" emboldened and strengthened Al Assad
An actor who personified the rebellion against Bashar Al Assad
And third, even assuming that Russia and Iran agreed over the need to push Mr Al Assad out, would they agree over whom would replace him? Both have very different interests in Syria, and these can be expected to widen once the conflict there is over. That is why the selection of a new Syrian leader will most probably divide the two countries, allowing Mr Al Assad to play one off the other in such a way as to survive politically.
It is difficult to predict what will happen to Mr Al Assad, but the dynamics in Syria suggest he will not be able to rest after the guns have become silent. If anything, the guns are what kept him in power for so long. No matter what the outcome of the war, the president has become damaged goods, a fact that his Russian and Iranian backers will have to increasingly take into consideration as they prepare to consolidate their gains.
Things will be clearer for Mr Al Assad once he can better determine the extent of the hypocrisy of western democracies in their efforts to benefit from Syria’s reconstruction. Will they be willing to look the other way on Mr Al Assad’s crimes, or will they cover for their participation by isolating the Syrian president? Everyone wants to profit in post-war Syria, but it remains unclear who will provide the capital for reconstruction.
And that's a question neither Iran nor Russia can take lightly. If Syria is not to turn into a larger version of Gaza, ruined and without imminent hope of revival, this could harm both their interests. The question of reconstruction could emerge as a central factor in Mr Al Assad's political fate. Without money there is no reconstruction, and without reconstruction the regime's "victory" would be an illusion. But Iran and Russia now own Syria because they so helped to break it apart.
__________
Follow The National's Opinion section on Twitter
COMPANY%20PROFILE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ECompany%20name%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Revibe%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarted%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%202022%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFounders%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Hamza%20Iraqui%20and%20Abdessamad%20Ben%20Zakour%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBased%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20UAE%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EIndustry%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Refurbished%20electronics%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFunds%20raised%20so%20far%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20%2410m%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EInvestors%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EFlat6Labs%2C%20Resonance%20and%20various%20others%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs
Engine: Dual 180kW and 300kW front and rear motors
Power: 480kW
Torque: 850Nm
Transmission: Single-speed automatic
Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)
On sale: Now
Paatal Lok season two
Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy
Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong
Rating: 4.5/5
Children who witnessed blood bath want to help others
Aged just 11, Khulood Al Najjar’s daughter, Nora, bravely attempted to fight off Philip Spence. Her finger was injured when she put her hand in between the claw hammer and her mother’s head.
As a vital witness, she was forced to relive the ordeal by police who needed to identify the attacker and ensure he was found guilty.
Now aged 16, Nora has decided she wants to dedicate her career to helping other victims of crime.
“It was very horrible for her. She saw her mum, dying, just next to her eyes. But now she just wants to go forward,” said Khulood, speaking about how her eldest daughter was dealing with the trauma of the incident five years ago. “She is saying, 'mama, I want to be a lawyer, I want to help people achieve justice'.”
Khulood’s youngest daughter, Fatima, was seven at the time of the attack and attempted to help paramedics responding to the incident.
“Now she wants to be a maxillofacial doctor,” Khulood said. “She said to me ‘it is because a maxillofacial doctor returned your face, mama’. Now she wants to help people see themselves in the mirror again.”
Khulood’s son, Saeed, was nine in 2014 and slept through the attack. While he did not witness the trauma, this made it more difficult for him to understand what had happened. He has ambitions to become an engineer.
box
COMPANY PROFILE
Company name: Letstango.com
Started: June 2013
Founder: Alex Tchablakian
Based: Dubai
Industry: e-commerce
Initial investment: Dh10 million
Investors: Self-funded
Total customers: 300,000 unique customers every month
Famous left-handers
- Marie Curie
- Jimi Hendrix
- Leonardo Di Vinci
- David Bowie
- Paul McCartney
- Albert Einstein
- Jack the Ripper
- Barack Obama
- Helen Keller
- Joan of Arc
Jebel Ali results
2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
Winner: AF Al Moreeb, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)
2.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,400m
Winner: Shamikh, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard
3pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 64,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: One Vision, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe
3.30pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Gabr, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson
4pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 96,000 (D) 1,800m
Winner: Just A Penny, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
4.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m
Winner: Torno Subito, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson
5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,950m
Winner: Untold Secret, Jose Santiago, Salem bin Ghadayer
Last 10 winners of African Footballer of the Year
2006: Didier Drogba (Chelsea and Ivory Coast)
2007: Frederic Kanoute (Sevilla and Mali)
2008: Emmanuel Adebayor (Arsenal and Togo)
2009: Didier Drogba (Chelsea and Ivory Coast)
2010: Samuel Eto’o (Inter Milan and Cameroon)
2011: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2012: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2013: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2014: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2015: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Borussia Dortmund and Gabon)
2016: Riyad Mahrez (Leicester City and Algeria)
THE CARD
2pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (Dirt) 1,400m
2.30pm: Handicap Dh 76,000 (D) 1,400m
3pm: Handicap Dh 64,000 (D) 1,200m
3.30pm: Shadwell Farm Conditions Dh 100,000 (D) 1,000m
4pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (D) 1,000m
4.30pm: Handicap 64,000 (D) 1,950m
MATCH INFO
Tottenham 4 (Alli 51', Kane 50', 77'. Aurier 73')
Olympiakos 2 (El-Arabi 06', Semedo')
Squid Game season two
Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk
Stars: Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun
Rating: 4.5/5
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
- Riders must be 14-years-old or over
- Wear a protective helmet
- Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
- Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
- Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
- Do not drive outside designated lanes
Boulder shooting victims
• Denny Strong, 20
• Neven Stanisic, 23
• Rikki Olds, 25
• Tralona Bartkowiak, 49
• Suzanne Fountain, 59
• Teri Leiker, 51
• Eric Talley, 51
• Kevin Mahoney, 61
• Lynn Murray, 62
• Jody Waters, 65
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
RESULT
Bayern Munich 0 AC Milan 4
Milan: Kessie (14'), Cutrone (25', 43'), Calhanoglu (85')
The biog
Date of birth: 27 May, 1995
Place of birth: Dubai, UAE
Status: Single
School: Al Ittihad private school in Al Mamzar
University: University of Sharjah
Degree: Renewable and Sustainable Energy
Hobby: I enjoy travelling a lot, not just for fun, but I like to cross things off my bucket list and the map and do something there like a 'green project'.
Fanney Khan
Producer: T-Series, Anil Kapoor Productions, ROMP, Prerna Arora
Director: Atul Manjrekar
Cast: Anil Kapoor, Aishwarya Rai, Rajkummar Rao, Pihu Sand
Rating: 2/5
If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.
When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.
How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
if you go
Getting there
Etihad (Etihad.com), Emirates (emirates.com) and Air France (www.airfrance.com) fly to Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport, from Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively. Return flights cost from around Dh3,785. It takes about 40 minutes to get from Paris to Compiègne by train, with return tickets costing €19. The Glade of the Armistice is 6.6km east of the railway station.
Staying there
On a handsome, tree-lined street near the Chateau’s park, La Parenthèse du Rond Royal (laparenthesedurondroyal.com) offers spacious b&b accommodation with thoughtful design touches. Lots of natural woods, old fashioned travelling trunks as decoration and multi-nozzle showers are part of the look, while there are free bikes for those who want to cycle to the glade. Prices start at €120 a night.
More information: musee-armistice-14-18.fr ; compiegne-tourisme.fr; uk.france.fr
The biog
Favourite books: 'Ruth Bader Ginsburg: A Life' by Jane D. Mathews and ‘The Moment of Lift’ by Melinda Gates
Favourite travel destination: Greece, a blend of ancient history and captivating nature. It always has given me a sense of joy, endless possibilities, positive energy and wonderful people that make you feel at home.
Favourite pastime: travelling and experiencing different cultures across the globe.
Favourite quote: “In the future, there will be no female leaders. There will just be leaders” - Sheryl Sandberg, COO of Facebook.
Favourite Movie: Mona Lisa Smile
Favourite Author: Kahlil Gibran
Favourite Artist: Meryl Streep
COMPANY PROFILE
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Total funding: Self funded
Tips for used car buyers
- Choose cars with GCC specifications
- Get a service history for cars less than five years old
- Don’t go cheap on the inspection
- Check for oil leaks
- Do a Google search on the standard problems for your car model
- Do your due diligence. Get a transfer of ownership done at an official RTA centre
- Check the vehicle’s condition. You don’t want to buy a car that’s a good deal but ends up costing you Dh10,000 in repairs every month
- Validate warranty and service contracts with the relevant agency and and make sure they are valid when ownership is transferred
- If you are planning to sell the car soon, buy one with a good resale value. The two most popular cars in the UAE are black or white in colour and other colours are harder to sell
Tarek Kabrit, chief executive of Seez, and Imad Hammad, chief executive and co-founder of CarSwitch.com
Saturday's results
West Ham 2-3 Tottenham
Arsenal 2-2 Southampton
Bournemouth 1-2 Wolves
Brighton 0-2 Leicester City
Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool
Everton 0-2 Norwich City
Watford 0-3 Burnley
Manchester City v Chelsea, 9.30pm