A reader writes about the desperate situation at work in parts of Syria. Omar Sanadiki / Reuters
A reader writes about the desperate situation at work in parts of Syria. Omar Sanadiki / Reuters

The question of reconstruction could determine Assad’s political destiny



It's now taken as a given that Bashar Al Assad will not be removed from power by the actions of the Syrian opposition. Russian and Iranian military intervention, coupled with western diffidence about what his departure would have meant, undermined any military solution that might have ousted the Syrian president from office.

However, an alternative question merits being asked. Is Mr Al Assad's political future at greater risk once the Syrian conflict ends? This may not be asludicrous as it sounds.

There are several reasons that could make such a scenario possible. First, that once the war in Syria ends, both Iran and Russia will want to stabilise Syria by ensuring it is reintegrated into the Arab fold. For as long as Mr Al Assad is president, such a process is likely to be seriously hindered.

Second, Syria will need massive amounts of money to be rebuilt after its war, a step that would be needed to reinforce any post-war settlement. Without major investment in reconstruction, the political order defended by Russia and Iran will remain fragile, very likely undermining their desire to consolidate Mr Al Assad's rule in a way that would spare them the need to do so on their own for years to come.

And third, in a post-conflict Syria the cost of replacing Mr Al Assad may be considerably less than it would be if the fighting were ongoing. The reality is that even if Moscow and Tehran had ever seriously contemplated removing Mr Al Assad after the uprising began, they didn't know how to do so in a way that would have preserved their interests, because the violence would have been precluded a smooth transition.

However, once the fighting ends, it is conceivable that a way could be found to ease Mr Al Assad out, in collaboration with the centres of power that had supported his regime. The advantage would be to get rid of a man whose continued presence represents a persistent obstacle to national reconciliation and normalisation of the Syrian state.

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This could involve finding a replacement for Mr Al Assad who would reassure those networks of officials in the security and military apparatus that Russia and Iran wish to keep in place. In this context, the recent Russian decision to present a ceremonial sword to Suheil Al Hassan, commander of the regime’s Tiger Force, led to speculation as to the true symbolism of the event, regardless of what the real Russian intent was.

However, several factors are likely to work against a transition away from Mr Al Assad. For starters, the Syrian president has never been so vulnerable and dependent, which represents a major advantage to his foreign protectors, Iran in particular. A new Syrian leader, on the contrary, could potentially be empowered to impose himself as a more independent figure, to bolster his national legitimacy.

A second mitigating factor is that Mr Al Assad is likely to resist any efforts to push him out. This can include eliminating potential rivals physically, as has happened with other Syrian security officials in the past decade, or simply blocking measures that Russia or Iran, or both, could not ignore. The Syrian president, and the people immediately around him who would lose out if he were to fall, still have the means to be spoilers.

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And third, even assuming that Russia and Iran agreed over the need to push Mr Al Assad out, would they agree over whom would replace him? Both have very different interests in Syria, and these can be expected to widen once the conflict there is over. That is why the selection of a new Syrian leader will most probably divide the two countries, allowing Mr Al Assad to play one off the other in such a way as to survive politically.

It is difficult to predict what will happen to Mr Al Assad, but the dynamics in Syria suggest he will not be able to rest after the guns have become silent. If anything, the guns are what kept him in power for so long. No matter what the outcome of the war, the president has become damaged goods, a fact that his Russian and Iranian backers will have to increasingly take into consideration as they prepare to consolidate their gains.

Things will be clearer for Mr Al Assad once he can better determine the extent of the hypocrisy of western democracies in their efforts to benefit from Syria’s reconstruction. Will they be willing to look the other way on Mr Al Assad’s crimes, or will they cover for their participation by isolating the Syrian president? Everyone wants to profit in post-war Syria, but it remains unclear who will provide the capital for reconstruction.

And that's a question neither Iran nor Russia can take lightly. If Syria is not to turn into a larger version of Gaza, ruined and without imminent hope of revival, this could harm both their interests. The question of reconstruction could emerge as a central factor in Mr Al Assad's political fate. Without money there is no reconstruction, and without reconstruction the regime's "victory" would be an illusion. But Iran and Russia now own Syria because they so helped to break it apart.

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The specs

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Power: 480kW

Torque: 850Nm

Transmission: Single-speed automatic

Price: From Dh359,900 ($98,000)

On sale: Now

Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

Children who witnessed blood bath want to help others

Aged just 11, Khulood Al Najjar’s daughter, Nora, bravely attempted to fight off Philip Spence. Her finger was injured when she put her hand in between the claw hammer and her mother’s head.

As a vital witness, she was forced to relive the ordeal by police who needed to identify the attacker and ensure he was found guilty.

Now aged 16, Nora has decided she wants to dedicate her career to helping other victims of crime.

“It was very horrible for her. She saw her mum, dying, just next to her eyes. But now she just wants to go forward,” said Khulood, speaking about how her eldest daughter was dealing with the trauma of the incident five years ago. “She is saying, 'mama, I want to be a lawyer, I want to help people achieve justice'.”

Khulood’s youngest daughter, Fatima, was seven at the time of the attack and attempted to help paramedics responding to the incident.

“Now she wants to be a maxillofacial doctor,” Khulood said. “She said to me ‘it is because a maxillofacial doctor returned your face, mama’. Now she wants to help people see themselves in the mirror again.”

Khulood’s son, Saeed, was nine in 2014 and slept through the attack. While he did not witness the trauma, this made it more difficult for him to understand what had happened. He has ambitions to become an engineer.

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COMPANY PROFILE

Company name: Letstango.com

Started: June 2013

Founder: Alex Tchablakian

Based: Dubai

Industry: e-commerce

Initial investment: Dh10 million

Investors: Self-funded

Total customers: 300,000 unique customers every month

Famous left-handers

- Marie Curie

- Jimi Hendrix

- Leonardo Di Vinci

- David Bowie

- Paul McCartney

- Albert Einstein

- Jack the Ripper

- Barack Obama

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- Joan of Arc

Jebel Ali results

2pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 50,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

Winner: AF Al Moreeb, Antonio Fresu (jockey), Ernst Oertel (trainer)

2.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,400m

Winner: Shamikh, Ryan Curatolo, Nicholas Bachalard

3pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 64,000 (D) 1,600m

Winner: One Vision, Connor Beasley, Ali Rashid Al Raihe

3.30pm: Conditions (TB) Dh 100,000 (D) 1,600m

Winner: Gabr, Sam Hitchcott, Doug Watson

4pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 96,000 (D) 1,800m

Winner: Just A Penny, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson

4.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh 60,000 (D) 1,600m

Winner: Torno Subito, Sam Hitchcock, Doug Watson

5pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 76,000 (D) 1,950m

Winner: Untold Secret, Jose Santiago, Salem bin Ghadayer

Last 10 winners of African Footballer of the Year

2006: Didier Drogba (Chelsea and Ivory Coast)
2007: Frederic Kanoute (Sevilla and Mali)
2008: Emmanuel Adebayor (Arsenal and Togo)
2009: Didier Drogba (Chelsea and Ivory Coast)
2010: Samuel Eto’o (Inter Milan and Cameroon)
2011: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2012: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2013: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2014: Yaya Toure (Manchester City and Ivory Coast)
2015: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (Borussia Dortmund and Gabon)
2016: Riyad Mahrez (Leicester City and Algeria)

THE CARD

2pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (Dirt) 1,400m

2.30pm: Handicap Dh 76,000 (D) 1,400m

3pm: Handicap Dh 64,000 (D) 1,200m

3.30pm: Shadwell Farm Conditions Dh 100,000 (D) 1,000m

4pm: Maiden Dh 60,000 (D) 1,000m

4.30pm: Handicap 64,000 (D) 1,950m

MATCH INFO

Tottenham 4 (Alli 51', Kane 50', 77'. Aurier 73')

Olympiakos 2 (El-Arabi 06', Semedo')

Squid Game season two

Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk 

Stars:  Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun

Rating: 4.5/5

Electric scooters: some rules to remember
  • Riders must be 14-years-old or over
  • Wear a protective helmet
  • Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
  • Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
  • Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
  • Do not drive outside designated lanes
Boulder shooting victims

• Denny Strong, 20
• Neven Stanisic, 23
• Rikki Olds, 25
• Tralona Bartkowiak, 49
• Suzanne Fountain, 59
• Teri Leiker, 51
• Eric Talley, 51
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• Lynn Murray, 62
• Jody Waters, 65

Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
  • Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
  • Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
  • Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
 
 
RESULT

Bayern Munich 0 AC Milan 4
Milan: Kessie (14'), Cutrone (25', 43'), Calhanoglu (85')

The biog

Date of birth: 27 May, 1995

Place of birth: Dubai, UAE

Status: Single

School: Al Ittihad private school in Al Mamzar

University: University of Sharjah

Degree: Renewable and Sustainable Energy

Hobby: I enjoy travelling a lot, not just for fun, but I like to cross things off my bucket list and the map and do something there like a 'green project'.

Fanney Khan

Producer: T-Series, Anil Kapoor Productions, ROMP, Prerna Arora

Director: Atul Manjrekar

Cast: Anil Kapoor, Aishwarya Rai, Rajkummar Rao, Pihu Sand

Rating: 2/5 

If you go
Where to stay: Courtyard by Marriott Titusville Kennedy Space Centre has unparalleled views of the Indian River. Alligators can be spotted from hotel room balconies, as can several rocket launch sites. The hotel also boasts cool space-themed decor.

When to go: Florida is best experienced during the winter months, from November to May, before the humidity kicks in.

How to get there: Emirates currently flies from Dubai to Orlando five times a week.
if you go

Getting there

Etihad (Etihad.com), Emirates (emirates.com) and Air France (www.airfrance.com) fly to Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport, from Abu Dhabi and Dubai respectively. Return flights cost from around Dh3,785. It takes about 40 minutes to get from Paris to Compiègne by train, with return tickets costing €19. The Glade of the Armistice is 6.6km east of the railway station.

Staying there

On a handsome, tree-lined street near the Chateau’s park, La Parenthèse du Rond Royal (laparenthesedurondroyal.com) offers spacious b&b accommodation with thoughtful design touches. Lots of natural woods, old fashioned travelling trunks as decoration and multi-nozzle showers are part of the look, while there are free bikes for those who want to cycle to the glade. Prices start at €120 a night.

More information: musee-armistice-14-18.fr ; compiegne-tourisme.fr; uk.france.fr

The biog

Favourite books: 'Ruth Bader Ginsburg: A Life' by Jane D. Mathews and ‘The Moment of Lift’ by Melinda Gates

Favourite travel destination: Greece, a blend of ancient history and captivating nature. It always has given me a sense of joy, endless possibilities, positive energy and wonderful people that make you feel at home.

Favourite pastime: travelling and experiencing different cultures across the globe.

Favourite quote: “In the future, there will be no female leaders. There will just be leaders” - Sheryl Sandberg, COO of Facebook.

Favourite Movie: Mona Lisa Smile 

Favourite Author: Kahlil Gibran

Favourite Artist: Meryl Streep

COMPANY PROFILE
Name: ARDH Collective
Based: Dubai
Founders: Alhaan Ahmed, Alyina Ahmed and Maximo Tettamanzi
Sector: Sustainability
Total funding: Self funded
Number of employees: 4
Tips for used car buyers
  • Choose cars with GCC specifications
  • Get a service history for cars less than five years old
  • Don’t go cheap on the inspection
  • Check for oil leaks
  • Do a Google search on the standard problems for your car model
  • Do your due diligence. Get a transfer of ownership done at an official RTA centre
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  • If you are planning to sell the car soon, buy one with a good resale value. The two most popular cars in the UAE are black or white in colour and other colours are harder to sell

Tarek Kabrit, chief executive of Seez, and Imad Hammad, chief executive and co-founder of CarSwitch.com

Saturday's results

West Ham 2-3 Tottenham
Arsenal 2-2 Southampton
Bournemouth 1-2 Wolves
Brighton 0-2 Leicester City
Crystal Palace 1-2 Liverpool
Everton 0-2 Norwich City
Watford 0-3 Burnley

Manchester City v Chelsea, 9.30pm