The crisis between Saudi Arabia and Iran appears to have prevented any short-term agreement over the election of Sleiman Franjieh as Lebanon’s president. However, Mr Franjieh’s chances were already slim, largely because Hizbollah appears to not want a president today.
When Mr Franjieh was first proposed by former prime minister Saad Hariri, Hizbollah had reason to be wary. Mr Hariri’s offer could not have been made without Saudi approval, while it was known that the former American ambassador in Beirut had pushed Mr Franjieh’s name forward. Hizbollah was bound to rebuff an initiative endorsed by two of Iran’s rivals, whatever Mr Franjieh’s close ties with Bashar Al Assad were.
However, Hizbollah’s motives also appeared to be more profound. In rejecting Mr Franjieh the party perpetuated a debilitating political vacuum, one that it may agree to fill only in exchange for what it really seeks: a redrawing of constitutional shares to the advantage of the Shia community.
Under Lebanon’s post-1989 constitution, shares in parliament, the government and the civil service are distributed according to a 50-50 ratio between Christians and Muslims, with individual sects getting shares within this broader context. The Shia have long felt that the system underestimates their numbers, and Hizbollah probably views a favourable redistribution of shares as a means of protecting its autonomy in the system.
The party has denied wanting to change the constitution, but few believe it. Nor is there another good explanation for Hizbollah’s prolonging the presidential void while allowing rival presidential candidate Michel Aoun to hinder government decision-making. Officially the party supports Mr Aoun as candidate, but realises that all this does is block an election, as Mr Aoun does not yet enjoy majority backing in parliament, which elects the president.
There has been speculation in the Lebanese press that the Iranians are divided over Mr Franjieh, with reformers more open to a compromise and conservatives unwilling to surrender anything without getting concessions in return from the Saudis. Perhaps, but that suggests that Hizbollah seeks some benefits in exchange for giving a green light to an election.
The idea of reorganising constitutional shares makes sense for Hizbollah. The party allegedly seeks roughly a third of parliamentary and government shares for the Shia, with another third for each of the Sunnis and Maronite Christians. Smaller sects would get seats within this framework. In that way the Shia and Maronites would always represent a structural two-thirds majority over Sunnis, the main foes of Hizbollah.
Why would Christians go along with an amendment to the constitution that reduces their representation? Hizbollah’s calculation is that Christian fears of Sunni Islamism could lead them to accept a reduction in representation if it means a strategic alliance with an armed Shia community, allowing both to defend themselves against the Sunnis.
That’s the theory, at least, though there are many Christians who reject such a rationale. To them the idea of aligning with Hizbollah and the Shia against the Sunnis spells isolation for Christians in a Sunni-majority Middle East. Nor is it clear how a change can be made to the Lebanese constitution if Sunnis and a portion of the Christian community oppose it.
Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system is based on consensus and compromise. It is difficult to modify at the best of times, but even more so if a major community such as the Sunnis are hostile. That is why Hizbollah’s efforts may backfire.
However, the party doubtless sees things differently. Hizbollah has never been sensitive to the subtleties of the Lebanese power-sharing formula. It prefers to operate according to the dictates of power politics. However, in a climate of Sunni-Shia polarisation in the region, this is reckless, since Hizbollah’s power moves will only provoke strong resistance.
In the absence of any constitutional accord, however, Hizbollah can take solace in the fact that it is undermining the state and its institutions. This has been the modus operandi of armed pro-Iran parties in the Arab world. When they have been unable to dominate a state completely, they have ensured that the state is neutralised – a policy pursued in Iraq, Yemen and even Syria. It has also long been Hizbollah’s method in Lebanon.
The situation does not allow for much optimism.
Without a president and a functioning government and parliament, the Lebanese state is slowly disintegrating, especially economically. Hizbollah, in enhancing its own power, must be careful not to kill the beast. A collapsing Lebanon could create domestic sectarian instability and oblige Hizbollah to reconsider its military intervention in Syria on behalf of Iran.
Adding insult to injury, Iran has withdrawn its forces from Syria, leaving its Arab Shia allies to serve as cannon fodder in defence of Iranian interests. The road ahead will be tough for Hizbollah, despite its military prowess. Shaping Lebanon around its interests is no mean feat, particularly if ongoing efforts to end the current vacuum succeed.
Michael Young is opinion editor of The Daily Star in Beirut
On Twitter @BeirutCalling
Bullet Train
Director: David Leitch
Stars: Brad Pitt, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Brian Tyree Henry, Sandra Bullock
Rating: 3/5
History's medical milestones
1799 - First small pox vaccine administered
1846 - First public demonstration of anaesthesia in surgery
1861 - Louis Pasteur published his germ theory which proved that bacteria caused diseases
1895 - Discovery of x-rays
1923 - Heart valve surgery performed successfully for first time
1928 - Alexander Fleming discovers penicillin
1953 - Structure of DNA discovered
1952 - First organ transplant - a kidney - takes place
1954 - Clinical trials of birth control pill
1979 - MRI, or magnetic resonance imaging, scanned used to diagnose illness and injury.
1998 - The first adult live-donor liver transplant is carried out
THE SWIMMERS
Director: Sally El-Hosaini
Stars: Nathalie Issa, Manal Issa, Ahmed Malek and Ali Suliman
Rating: 4/5
How Tesla’s price correction has hit fund managers
Investing in disruptive technology can be a bumpy ride, as investors in Tesla were reminded on Friday, when its stock dropped 7.5 per cent in early trading to $575.
It recovered slightly but still ended the week 15 per cent lower and is down a third from its all-time high of $883 on January 26. The electric car maker’s market cap fell from $834 billion to about $567bn in that time, a drop of an astonishing $267bn, and a blow for those who bought Tesla stock late.
The collapse also hit fund managers that have gone big on Tesla, notably the UK-based Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation ETF.
Tesla is the top holding in both funds, making up a hefty 10 per cent of total assets under management. Both funds have fallen by a quarter in the past month.
Matt Weller, global head of market research at GAIN Capital, recently warned that Tesla founder Elon Musk had “flown a bit too close to the sun”, after getting carried away by investing $1.5bn of the company’s money in Bitcoin.
He also predicted Tesla’s sales could struggle as traditional auto manufacturers ramp up electric car production, destroying its first mover advantage.
AJ Bell’s Russ Mould warns that many investors buy tech stocks when earnings forecasts are rising, almost regardless of valuation. “When it works, it really works. But when it goes wrong, elevated valuations leave little or no downside protection.”
A Tesla correction was probably baked in after last year’s astonishing share price surge, and many investors will see this as an opportunity to load up at a reduced price.
Dramatic swings are to be expected when investing in disruptive technology, as Ms Wood at ARK makes clear.
Every week, she sends subscribers a commentary listing “stocks in our strategies that have appreciated or dropped more than 15 per cent in a day” during the week.
Her latest commentary, issued on Friday, showed seven stocks displaying extreme volatility, led by ExOne, a leader in binder jetting 3D printing technology. It jumped 24 per cent, boosted by news that fellow 3D printing specialist Stratasys had beaten fourth-quarter revenues and earnings expectations, seen as good news for the sector.
By contrast, computational drug and material discovery company Schrödinger fell 27 per cent after quarterly and full-year results showed its core software sales and drug development pipeline slowing.
Despite that setback, Ms Wood remains positive, arguing that its “medicinal chemistry platform offers a powerful and unique view into chemical space”.
In her weekly video view, she remains bullish, stating that: “We are on the right side of change, and disruptive innovation is going to deliver exponential growth trajectories for many of our companies, in fact, most of them.”
Ms Wood remains committed to Tesla as she expects global electric car sales to compound at an average annual rate of 82 per cent for the next five years.
She said these are so “enormous that some people find them unbelievable”, and argues that this scepticism, especially among institutional investors, “festers” and creates a great opportunity for ARK.
Only you can decide whether you are a believer or a festering sceptic. If it’s the former, then buckle up.
Kill Bill Volume 1
Director: Quentin Tarantino
Stars: Uma Thurman, David Carradine and Michael Madsen
Rating: 4.5/5
The Two Popes
Director: Fernando Meirelles
Stars: Anthony Hopkins, Jonathan Pryce
Four out of five stars
Blue Beetle
Director: Angel Manuel Soto
Stars: Xolo Mariduena, Adriana Barraza, Damian Alcazar, Raoul Max Trujillo, Susan Sarandon, George Lopez
Rating: 4/5
Company Profile
Company name: Cargoz
Date started: January 2022
Founders: Premlal Pullisserry and Lijo Antony
Based: Dubai
Number of staff: 30
Investment stage: Seed
US PGA Championship in numbers
1 Joost Luiten produced a memorable hole in one at the par-three fourth in the first round.
2 To date, the only two players to win the PGA Championship after winning the week before are Rory McIlroy (2014 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational) and Tiger Woods (2007, WGC-Bridgestone Invitational). Hideki Matsuyama or Chris Stroud could have made it three.
3 Number of seasons without a major for McIlroy, who finished in a tie for 22nd.
4 Louis Oosthuizen has now finished second in all four of the game's major championships.
5 In the fifth hole of the final round, McIlroy holed his longest putt of the week - from 16ft 8in - for birdie.
6 For the sixth successive year, play was disrupted by bad weather with a delay of one hour and 43 minutes on Friday.
7 Seven under par (64) was the best round of the week, shot by Matsuyama and Francesco Molinari on Day 2.
8 Number of shots taken by Jason Day on the 18th hole in round three after a risky recovery shot backfired.
9 Jon Rahm's age in months the last time Phil Mickelson missed the cut in the US PGA, in 1995.
10 Jimmy Walker's opening round as defending champion was a 10-over-par 81.
11 The par-four 11th coincidentally ranked as the 11th hardest hole overall with a scoring average of 4.192.
12 Paul Casey was a combined 12 under par for his first round in this year's majors.
13 The average world ranking of the last 13 PGA winners before this week was 25. Kevin Kisner began the week ranked 25th.
14 The world ranking of Justin Thomas before his victory.
15 Of the top 15 players after 54 holes, only Oosthuizen had previously won a major.
16 The par-four 16th marks the start of Quail Hollow's so-called "Green Mile" of finishing holes, some of the toughest in golf.
17 The first round scoring average of the last 17 major champions was 67.2. Kisner and Thorbjorn Olesen shot 67 on day one at Quail Hollow.
18 For the first time in 18 majors, the eventual winner was over par after round one (Thomas shot 73).
'Doctor Strange in the Multiverse Of Madness'
Director: Sam Raimi
Cast: Benedict Cumberbatch, Elizabeth Olsen, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Benedict Wong, Xochitl Gomez, Michael Stuhlbarg and Rachel McAdams
Rating: 3/5