A huge expanse of ruins left the explosion of the atomic bomb on August 6, 1945 in Hiroshima. 140.000 people were killed.(AP Photo)
The ruins left by the explosion of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima in 1945, when 140.000 people were killed / AP

Why don't we feel a greater sense of pending doom over the fear of a nuclear wipeout?



What comes to mind when nuclear war is mentioned? The on-off Singapore summit? The shifting dynamic between two volatile leaders, Donald Trump of the United States, the world's most advanced nuclear power and Kim Jong-un of newly nuclear-capable North Korea? Or the pair's boasts about their nuclear capability?

All of the above might be expressed in various dramatic genres. There is absurdism, action, black comedy, suspense. What seems to be missing is existential angst. For a world that’s supposed to be trying to avert nuclear catastrophe, we don’t seem overly engaged in discourse about the pending end of our days.

We aren’t obsessively discussing the immediate, day two, year five and quarter century consequences of using a hydrogen bomb, which can be 1,000 times more powerful than the atomic bombs dropped on Japan by the US in 1945.

Those two bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki killed more than 200,000 people. A hydrogen bomb could vaporise an entire city. The difference, according to Korean studies professor Andrei Lankov, is as follows: "With an atomic bomb, you can kill half of Manhattan at most. [A hydrogen bomb] could evaporate the entire city of New York completely. No one would stay alive.”

So, why aren't we more rattled? Why isn't there more apocalyptic fiction and non-fiction? Why aren't we on a perpetual "bombing run" these days, to use the term coined by paediatrician Helen Caldicott, chief campaigner for the anti-nuclear movement, to describe her 1980s march through city after city of Ronald Reagan's America?

With the authority of a medical practitioner and the passion of an evangelist, Dr Caldicott would describe the probable effects of a 1-megaton bomb on the city where she was speaking. She would specify how many people would be burned, crushed, blinded, maimed and irradiated. She was enormously effective.

Hugh Gusterson, an anthropologist who focuses on nuclear culture, once wrote: “As a young activist for the nuclear freeze campaign, I watched the extraordinary effect Caldicott had on audiences, many members of which would silently weep as she spoke.”

This is not to argue for nuclear alarmism. An intense fear of coming nuclear annihilation could hardly be anything but debilitating.

Consider the way the main protagonist in Dirk Kurbjuweit's bestselling novel Fear recalls his schoolboy terror of a nuclear conflagration in the 1980s: "You didn't have to know much about the arms race – a single sentence was enough to send shivers down your spine. In a nuclear war nobody escaped alive and it wasn't even desirable to be spared.…The fear of nuclear warfare was the fear of death and the fear of life."

Kurbjuweit’s 2013 novel was translated from German to English last year. Interestingly, it evokes the heightened fears of the Cold War era, during the stand-off between evenly matched titans.

After World War II, albeit with some peaks and troughs right up to the mid-1980s, there was pronounced international concern about nuclear war and its devastating consequences.

American psychologists Robert Schatz and Susan Fiske noted an extraordinary change in worry levels over nuclear war in a 1992 paper for Political Psychology journal. By the 1980s, compared to the 1960s, people in the US, UK, Finland and Canada increasingly did not expect to survive nuclear war.

Is there the same sense of doom across much of the western hemisphere today? It seems unlikely, else Mr Trump would hardly be issuing his most recent threat to Mr Kim about America’s “so massive and powerful nuclear capabilities”.

As has been pointed out, this is the first time since 1962 that a US president has threatened direct military action against a nuclear weapon state.

But there are two reasons much of the world seems relatively sanguine. There is a climate of anxiety overload – climate change, plastic pollution, pandemics.

And then there is the abstract nature of the nuclear threat and the distance in time from the last (and only) nuclear attack.

As the late Michael Quinlan, a veteran at the UK’s Ministry of Defence, said: “We have no empirical data beyond 1945 about how events may run if nuclear weapons are used.”

In the circumstances, it becomes harder to remember the suffering of nearly three generations ago.

And it is almost impossible to conjure up so haunting a picture of wipeout as HG Wells did in his 1914 novel The World Set Free about a bomb that would continue to explode indefinitely: "These crowning buds...opened and flared like waterlilies of flame over nations destroyed, over churches smashed or submerged, towns ruined, fields lost to mankind for ever and a million weltering bodies. Was this lesson enough for mankind, or would the flames of war still burn amidst the ruins?"

Shouldn’t we be more anxious?

The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index

The Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index

Mazen Abukhater, principal and actuary at global consultancy Mercer, Middle East, says the company’s Melbourne Mercer Global Pension Index - which benchmarks 34 pension schemes across the globe to assess their adequacy, sustainability and integrity - included Saudi Arabia for the first time this year to offer a glimpse into the region.

The index highlighted fundamental issues for all 34 countries, such as a rapid ageing population and a low growth / low interest environment putting pressure on expected returns. It also highlighted the increasing popularity around the world of defined contribution schemes.

“Average life expectancy has been increasing by about three years every 10 years. Someone born in 1947 is expected to live until 85 whereas someone born in 2007 is expected to live to 103,” Mr Abukhater told the Mena Pensions Conference.

“Are our systems equipped to handle these kind of life expectancies in the future? If so many people retire at 60, they are going to be in retirement for 43 years – so we need to adapt our retirement age to our changing life expectancy.”

Saudi Arabia came in the middle of Mercer’s ranking with a score of 58.9. The report said the country's index could be raised by improving the minimum level of support for the poorest aged individuals and increasing the labour force participation rate at older ages as life expectancies rise.

Mr Abukhater said the challenges of an ageing population, increased life expectancy and some individuals relying solely on their government for financial support in their retirement years will put the system under strain.

“To relieve that pressure, governments need to consider whether it is time to switch to a defined contribution scheme so that individuals can supplement their own future with the help of government support,” he said.

Key Points
  • Protests against President Omar Al Bashir enter their sixth day
  • Reports of President Bashir's resignation and arrests of senior government officials
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Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Final scores

18 under: Tyrrell Hatton (ENG)

- 14: Jason Scrivener (AUS)

-13: Rory McIlroy (NIR)

-12: Rafa Cabrera Bello (ESP)

-11: David Lipsky (USA), Marc Warren (SCO)

-10: Tommy Fleetwood (ENG), Chris Paisley (ENG), Matt Wallace (ENG), Fabrizio Zanotti (PAR)