Members of the Iraqi security forces wait to cast their early votes in the Iraq election in Baghdad. Ali Abbas / EPA
Members of the Iraqi security forces wait to cast their early votes in the Iraq election in Baghdad. Ali Abbas / EPA

Whatever the shape of the new alliances that emerge post-election, the new Iraqi government faces huge challenges



Saturday's parliamentary election in Iraq has been dubbed "the election after the election". What that means is that the coalitions that form afterwards will determine the shape of the new government. What distinguishes this election from previous ones is the absence of a strong party that could win power unanimously, as most of the bigger parties have smaller factions.

When we look at the election map, we find that the biggest list, namely the National Alliance which has governed Iraq since 2005, has split into a variety of competing entities. The first is the Victory Alliance led by prime minister Haider Al Abadi, who still stands a chance of forming the next government. The second is the State of Law coalition led by Nouri Al Maliki, the former prime minister, who has squandered his chances of gaining power. His primary objective is to get rid of Mr Al Abadi and to back any other Shia candidate to take the post of prime minister. The third coalition is the Conquest Alliance led by Hadi Al Ameri, who has declared his desire to become prime minister. This coalition includes various militias allied to Iran. There is also the National Wisdom Movement led by Ammar Al Hakim, who split from the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and Moqtada Al Sadr, who is operating in a reformist framework through the On the Move Alliance, which includes the Communist Party and other secular lists.

Then there is the Al-Watani coalition led by Ayad Allawi, the deputy president, including some Sunni-led factions, and the Decision Coalition, which includes Osama Al Nujaifi, the deputy president. As for the Kurdish parties, it is still unknown what their plans are for the elections, especially after the massive splits that happened in their ranks following the failure of the referendum on the independence of Kurdistan. Nobody knows if the two major Kurdish parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, will back Mr Al Abadi or Mr Al Maliki. What's new on the Kurdish front is Barham Salih, who split from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and is now entering the elections as an independent.

Nearly 7,000 candidates in total are standing. Many experts have predicted that it will not be possible for any party to gain more than 60 seats out of 329, which amounts to 18 per cent of parliamentary seats. That means without the formation of new coalitions after the elections, it will not be possible to form a new government. Whatever the shape of the new alliances that emerge post-election, they will be massively affected by the policies of the United States and Iran towards the various coalitions – and the government that forms will face a huge task ahead.

When Saddam Hussein's regime fell, I was wrongly confident Iraq would immediately turn into a democracy, based on my knowledge of middle class culture in Iraq, which was very progressive and highly educated. Having lived in exile since 1981, I didn't factor into my calculations the huge impact of the 13 years of economic sanctions that were imposed on Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War, which resulted in an exodus of the middle classes and its replacement by rural migrants to the big cities, particularly Baghdad. This change planted the seeds of the chaos that later followed.

I returned to Iraq in 2003, when the first scenario for a suggested political process was following the Afghanistan model. First, we would build the proper institutions of a modern state, then after four or five years, we would hold the first election. The big change came with the arrival of Paul Bremer. He decided to dissolve the army and allowed desperate crowds to rob state ministries and properties. The Americans also faced pressure from Shia parties to have the election sooner rather than later.

The first election was held on January 31, 2005. There were many faults, many of which have not been resolved with subsequent elections.

One of the major faults was to proceed without carrying out a population census. Until now, we don’t know the precise number of the population in each voting area. The government avoids carrying out a census because it doesn’t want announce the real numbers of Shia, Sunni, Kurds and other factions, lest it affect the power balance between the various parties and lists. The last proper census was held in 1987.

The lack of a truly independent judiciary that operates outside the influence of government is another flaw. When Mr Al Maliki lost the election of 2010, he changed the constitution so that if an electoral list won, it wouldn't automatically take power but instead had to wait until after the election when electoral blocks were formed. It was through this perverse reading of the poorly written constitution that Mr Al Maliki held onto power. When challenged, he threatened to fire the head of the supreme court from his post. A temporary measure to prevent such abuses of power from happening again might be to elect the head of the Supreme Court for life in order to quell the temptation to threaten judges by the government of the day.

Iraq is considered a failed state. One of the features of a failed state is for militias to operate outside state control and the boundaries of the army, police and state security. The future government has to not only eliminate those non-state players but also to provide security for people who lack it. Many are forced to migrate from one area to another in search of better security.

Then there is the high unemployment rate in Iraq, particularly for young people. It is imperative to provide equality and job opportunities for all. A high proportion of university graduates are without work; many end up working as taxi drivers.

During the past 15 years, Iraqis have suffered from a lack of basic services. The new government must provide basic services such as health, education, drinking water and electricity. It has to improve poor neighbourhoods, which are overpopulated and provide the people living there with decent conditions.

Corruption in Iraq is endemic. It is vital for the new government to really tackle this issue by punishing those who profit from corruption, particularly those with high seats in government. The committee for anti-corruption has to be independent so that it can carry out its duty effectively.

The next government must also pay attention to the rights of women by ensuring they have equal rights and access to education.

One of the major new developments in the lead-up to the election has been the rise of voices calling for a boycott of the elections because they are seen as having failed to improve the lot of the average Iraqi over the past 15 years. Some lists, who are assured of getting their candidates elected, have called for the boycott to prevent other smaller lists from gaining votes. Yet it is easy to say: “What benefits have elections brought us?” without considering the long-term benefits. Disillusion with the democratic process is dangerous and can lay the ground for the emergence of a strongman and a return to dictatorship.

It will not be possible to create a functioning state without finding the right solutions to the country’s many problems. Otherwise further catastrophes will no doubt occur.

Saad Abdulrazzak Hussain is a researcher for the Iraq Studies institute in Beirut and a former member of parliament in Iraq

THE LIGHT

Director: Tom Tykwer

Starring: Tala Al Deen, Nicolette Krebitz, Lars Eidinger

Rating: 3/5

The specs

Engine: Direct injection 4-cylinder 1.4-litre
Power: 150hp
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Key features of new policy

Pupils to learn coding and other vocational skills from Grade 6

Exams to test critical thinking and application of knowledge

A new National Assessment Centre, PARAKH (Performance, Assessment, Review and Analysis for Holistic Development) will form the standard for schools

Schools to implement online system to encouraging transparency and accountability

A new relationship with the old country

Treaty of Friendship between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates

The United kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates; Considering that the United Arab Emirates has assumed full responsibility as a sovereign and independent State; Determined that the long-standing and traditional relations of close friendship and cooperation between their peoples shall continue; Desiring to give expression to this intention in the form of a Treaty Friendship; Have agreed as follows:

ARTICLE 1 The relations between the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United Arab Emirates shall be governed by a spirit of close friendship. In recognition of this, the Contracting Parties, conscious of their common interest in the peace and stability of the region, shall: (a) consult together on matters of mutual concern in time of need; (b) settle all their disputes by peaceful means in conformity with the provisions of the Charter of the United Nations.

ARTICLE 2 The Contracting Parties shall encourage education, scientific and cultural cooperation between the two States in accordance with arrangements to be agreed. Such arrangements shall cover among other things: (a) the promotion of mutual understanding of their respective cultures, civilisations and languages, the promotion of contacts among professional bodies, universities and cultural institutions; (c) the encouragement of technical, scientific and cultural exchanges.

ARTICLE 3 The Contracting Parties shall maintain the close relationship already existing between them in the field of trade and commerce. Representatives of the Contracting Parties shall meet from time to time to consider means by which such relations can be further developed and strengthened, including the possibility of concluding treaties or agreements on matters of mutual concern.

ARTICLE 4 This Treaty shall enter into force on today’s date and shall remain in force for a period of ten years. Unless twelve months before the expiry of the said period of ten years either Contracting Party shall have given notice to the other of its intention to terminate the Treaty, this Treaty shall remain in force thereafter until the expiry of twelve months from the date on which notice of such intention is given.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned have signed this Treaty.

DONE in duplicate at Dubai the second day of December 1971AD, corresponding to the fifteenth day of Shawwal 1391H, in the English and Arabic languages, both texts being equally authoritative.

Signed

Geoffrey Arthur  Sheikh Zayed

How to protect yourself when air quality drops

Install an air filter in your home.

Close your windows and turn on the AC.

Shower or bath after being outside.

Wear a face mask.

Stay indoors when conditions are particularly poor.

If driving, turn your engine off when stationary.

SCORES

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German intelligence warnings
  • 2002: "Hezbollah supporters feared becoming a target of security services because of the effects of [9/11] ... discussions on Hezbollah policy moved from mosques into smaller circles in private homes." Supporters in Germany: 800
  • 2013: "Financial and logistical support from Germany for Hezbollah in Lebanon supports the armed struggle against Israel ... Hezbollah supporters in Germany hold back from actions that would gain publicity." Supporters in Germany: 950
  • 2023: "It must be reckoned with that Hezbollah will continue to plan terrorist actions outside the Middle East against Israel or Israeli interests." Supporters in Germany: 1,250 

Source: Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

Sreesanth's India bowling career

Tests 27, Wickets 87, Average 37.59, Best 5-40

ODIs 53, Wickets 75, Average 33.44, Best 6-55

T20Is 10, Wickets 7, Average 41.14, Best 2-12

Scorebox

Sharjah Wanderers 20-25 Dubai Tigers (After extra-time)

Wanderers

Tries Gormley, Penalty

Cons Flaherty

Pens Flaherty 2

Tigers

Tries O’Donnell, Gibbons, Kelly

Cons Caldwell 2

Pens Caldwell, Cross

Why it pays to compare

A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.

Route 1: bank transfer

The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.

Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount

Total received: €4,670.30 

Route 2: online platform

The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.

Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction

Total received: €4,756

The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.

Schedule
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The specs

Engine: 3-litre twin-turbo V6

Power: 400hp

Torque: 475Nm

Transmission: 9-speed automatic

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