Members of the Iraqi security forces wait to cast their early votes in the Iraq election in Baghdad. Ali Abbas / EPA
Members of the Iraqi security forces wait to cast their early votes in the Iraq election in Baghdad. Ali Abbas / EPA

Whatever the shape of the new alliances that emerge post-election, the new Iraqi government faces huge challenges



Saturday's parliamentary election in Iraq has been dubbed "the election after the election". What that means is that the coalitions that form afterwards will determine the shape of the new government. What distinguishes this election from previous ones is the absence of a strong party that could win power unanimously, as most of the bigger parties have smaller factions.

When we look at the election map, we find that the biggest list, namely the National Alliance which has governed Iraq since 2005, has split into a variety of competing entities. The first is the Victory Alliance led by prime minister Haider Al Abadi, who still stands a chance of forming the next government. The second is the State of Law coalition led by Nouri Al Maliki, the former prime minister, who has squandered his chances of gaining power. His primary objective is to get rid of Mr Al Abadi and to back any other Shia candidate to take the post of prime minister. The third coalition is the Conquest Alliance led by Hadi Al Ameri, who has declared his desire to become prime minister. This coalition includes various militias allied to Iran. There is also the National Wisdom Movement led by Ammar Al Hakim, who split from the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, and Moqtada Al Sadr, who is operating in a reformist framework through the On the Move Alliance, which includes the Communist Party and other secular lists.

Then there is the Al-Watani coalition led by Ayad Allawi, the deputy president, including some Sunni-led factions, and the Decision Coalition, which includes Osama Al Nujaifi, the deputy president. As for the Kurdish parties, it is still unknown what their plans are for the elections, especially after the massive splits that happened in their ranks following the failure of the referendum on the independence of Kurdistan. Nobody knows if the two major Kurdish parties, the Kurdish Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, will back Mr Al Abadi or Mr Al Maliki. What's new on the Kurdish front is Barham Salih, who split from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and is now entering the elections as an independent.

Nearly 7,000 candidates in total are standing. Many experts have predicted that it will not be possible for any party to gain more than 60 seats out of 329, which amounts to 18 per cent of parliamentary seats. That means without the formation of new coalitions after the elections, it will not be possible to form a new government. Whatever the shape of the new alliances that emerge post-election, they will be massively affected by the policies of the United States and Iran towards the various coalitions – and the government that forms will face a huge task ahead.

When Saddam Hussein's regime fell, I was wrongly confident Iraq would immediately turn into a democracy, based on my knowledge of middle class culture in Iraq, which was very progressive and highly educated. Having lived in exile since 1981, I didn't factor into my calculations the huge impact of the 13 years of economic sanctions that were imposed on Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War, which resulted in an exodus of the middle classes and its replacement by rural migrants to the big cities, particularly Baghdad. This change planted the seeds of the chaos that later followed.

I returned to Iraq in 2003, when the first scenario for a suggested political process was following the Afghanistan model. First, we would build the proper institutions of a modern state, then after four or five years, we would hold the first election. The big change came with the arrival of Paul Bremer. He decided to dissolve the army and allowed desperate crowds to rob state ministries and properties. The Americans also faced pressure from Shia parties to have the election sooner rather than later.

The first election was held on January 31, 2005. There were many faults, many of which have not been resolved with subsequent elections.

One of the major faults was to proceed without carrying out a population census. Until now, we don’t know the precise number of the population in each voting area. The government avoids carrying out a census because it doesn’t want announce the real numbers of Shia, Sunni, Kurds and other factions, lest it affect the power balance between the various parties and lists. The last proper census was held in 1987.

The lack of a truly independent judiciary that operates outside the influence of government is another flaw. When Mr Al Maliki lost the election of 2010, he changed the constitution so that if an electoral list won, it wouldn't automatically take power but instead had to wait until after the election when electoral blocks were formed. It was through this perverse reading of the poorly written constitution that Mr Al Maliki held onto power. When challenged, he threatened to fire the head of the supreme court from his post. A temporary measure to prevent such abuses of power from happening again might be to elect the head of the Supreme Court for life in order to quell the temptation to threaten judges by the government of the day.

Iraq is considered a failed state. One of the features of a failed state is for militias to operate outside state control and the boundaries of the army, police and state security. The future government has to not only eliminate those non-state players but also to provide security for people who lack it. Many are forced to migrate from one area to another in search of better security.

Then there is the high unemployment rate in Iraq, particularly for young people. It is imperative to provide equality and job opportunities for all. A high proportion of university graduates are without work; many end up working as taxi drivers.

During the past 15 years, Iraqis have suffered from a lack of basic services. The new government must provide basic services such as health, education, drinking water and electricity. It has to improve poor neighbourhoods, which are overpopulated and provide the people living there with decent conditions.

Corruption in Iraq is endemic. It is vital for the new government to really tackle this issue by punishing those who profit from corruption, particularly those with high seats in government. The committee for anti-corruption has to be independent so that it can carry out its duty effectively.

The next government must also pay attention to the rights of women by ensuring they have equal rights and access to education.

One of the major new developments in the lead-up to the election has been the rise of voices calling for a boycott of the elections because they are seen as having failed to improve the lot of the average Iraqi over the past 15 years. Some lists, who are assured of getting their candidates elected, have called for the boycott to prevent other smaller lists from gaining votes. Yet it is easy to say: “What benefits have elections brought us?” without considering the long-term benefits. Disillusion with the democratic process is dangerous and can lay the ground for the emergence of a strongman and a return to dictatorship.

It will not be possible to create a functioning state without finding the right solutions to the country’s many problems. Otherwise further catastrophes will no doubt occur.

Saad Abdulrazzak Hussain is a researcher for the Iraq Studies institute in Beirut and a former member of parliament in Iraq

Real estate tokenisation project

Dubai launched the pilot phase of its real estate tokenisation project last month.

The initiative focuses on converting real estate assets into digital tokens recorded on blockchain technology and helps in streamlining the process of buying, selling and investing, the Dubai Land Department said.

Dubai’s real estate tokenisation market is projected to reach Dh60 billion ($16.33 billion) by 2033, representing 7 per cent of the emirate’s total property transactions, according to the DLD.

At a glance

Global events: Much of the UK’s economic woes were blamed on “increased global uncertainty”, which can be interpreted as the economic impact of the Ukraine war and the uncertainty over Donald Trump’s tariffs.

 

Growth forecasts: Cut for 2025 from 2 per cent to 1 per cent. The OBR watchdog also estimated inflation will average 3.2 per cent this year

 

Welfare: Universal credit health element cut by 50 per cent and frozen for new claimants, building on cuts to the disability and incapacity bill set out earlier this month

 

Spending cuts: Overall day-to day-spending across government cut by £6.1bn in 2029-30 

 

Tax evasion: Steps to crack down on tax evasion to raise “£6.5bn per year” for the public purse

 

Defence: New high-tech weaponry, upgrading HM Naval Base in Portsmouth

 

Housing: Housebuilding to reach its highest in 40 years, with planning reforms helping generate an extra £3.4bn for public finances

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
WHAT IS A BLACK HOLE?

1. Black holes are objects whose gravity is so strong not even light can escape their pull

2. They can be created when massive stars collapse under their own weight

3. Large black holes can also be formed when smaller ones collide and merge

4. The biggest black holes lurk at the centre of many galaxies, including our own

5. Astronomers believe that when the universe was very young, black holes affected how galaxies formed

Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home. 

Test

Director: S Sashikanth

Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan

Star rating: 2/5

The White Lotus: Season three

Creator: Mike White

Starring: Walton Goggins, Jason Isaacs, Natasha Rothwell

Rating: 4.5/5

Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.

Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.

Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.

“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.

Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.

From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.

Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.

BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.

Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.

Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.

“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.

Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.

“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.

“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”

The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”

Aldar Properties Abu Dhabi T10

*November 15 to November 24

*Venue: Zayed Cricket Stadium, Abu Dhabi

*Tickets: Start at Dh10, from ttensports.com

*TV: Ten Sports

*Streaming: Jio Live

*2017 winners: Kerala Kings

*2018 winners: Northern Warriors

Skewed figures

In the village of Mevagissey in southwest England the housing stock has doubled in the last century while the number of residents is half the historic high. The village's Neighbourhood Development Plan states that 26% of homes are holiday retreats. Prices are high, averaging around £300,000, £50,000 more than the Cornish average of £250,000. The local average wage is £15,458. 

How much sugar is in chocolate Easter eggs?
  • The 169g Crunchie egg has 15.9g of sugar per 25g serving, working out at around 107g of sugar per egg
  • The 190g Maltesers Teasers egg contains 58g of sugar per 100g for the egg and 19.6g of sugar in each of the two Teasers bars that come with it
  • The 188g Smarties egg has 113g of sugar per egg and 22.8g in the tube of Smarties it contains
  • The Milky Bar white chocolate Egg Hunt Pack contains eight eggs at 7.7g of sugar per egg
  • The Cadbury Creme Egg contains 26g of sugar per 40g egg
The specs

  Engine: 2-litre or 3-litre 4Motion all-wheel-drive Power: 250Nm (2-litre); 340 (3-litre) Torque: 450Nm Transmission: 8-speed automatic Starting price: From Dh212,000 On sale: Now

BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES

SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities

Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails

Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies

Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments

Confirmed%20bouts%20(more%20to%20be%20added)
%3Cp%3ECory%20Sandhagen%20v%20Umar%20Nurmagomedov%0D%3Cbr%3ENick%20Diaz%20v%20Vicente%20Luque%0D%3Cbr%3EMichael%20Chiesa%20v%20Tony%20Ferguson%0D%3Cbr%3EDeiveson%20Figueiredo%20v%20Marlon%20Vera%0D%3Cbr%3EMackenzie%20Dern%20v%20Loopy%20Godinez%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ETickets%20for%20the%20August%203%20Fight%20Night%2C%20held%20in%20partnership%20with%20the%20Department%20of%20Culture%20and%20Tourism%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20went%20on%20sale%20earlier%20this%20month%2C%20through%20www.etihadarena.ae%20and%20www.ticketmaster.ae.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A

Qosty Byogaani

Starring: Hani Razmzi, Maya Nasir and Hassan Hosny

Four stars

Formula Middle East Calendar (Formula Regional and Formula 4)
Round 1: January 17-19, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 2: January 22-23, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 3: February 7-9, Dubai Autodrome – Dubai
 
Round 4: February 14-16, Yas Marina Circuit – Abu Dhabi
 
Round 5: February 25-27, Jeddah Corniche Circuit – Saudi Arabia
Electric scooters: some rules to remember
  • Riders must be 14-years-old or over
  • Wear a protective helmet
  • Park the electric scooter in designated parking lots (if any)
  • Do not leave electric scooter in locations that obstruct traffic or pedestrians
  • Solo riders only, no passengers allowed
  • Do not drive outside designated lanes
The specs: 2018 Kia Picanto

Price: From Dh39,500

Engine: 1.2L inline four-cylinder

Transmission: Four-speed auto

Power: 86hp @ 6,000rpm

Torque: 122Nm @ 4,000rpm

Fuel economy, combined: 6.0L / 100km

The National's picks

4.35pm: Tilal Al Khalediah
5.10pm: Continous
5.45pm: Raging Torrent
6.20pm: West Acre
7pm: Flood Zone
7.40pm: Straight No Chaser
8.15pm: Romantic Warrior
8.50pm: Calandogan
9.30pm: Forever Young

The smuggler

Eldarir had arrived at JFK in January 2020 with three suitcases, containing goods he valued at $300, when he was directed to a search area.
Officers found 41 gold artefacts among the bags, including amulets from a funerary set which prepared the deceased for the afterlife.
Also found was a cartouche of a Ptolemaic king on a relief that was originally part of a royal building or temple. 
The largest single group of items found in Eldarir’s cases were 400 shabtis, or figurines.

Khouli conviction

Khouli smuggled items into the US by making false declarations to customs about the country of origin and value of the items.
According to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, he provided “false provenances which stated that [two] Egyptian antiquities were part of a collection assembled by Khouli's father in Israel in the 1960s” when in fact “Khouli acquired the Egyptian antiquities from other dealers”.
He was sentenced to one year of probation, six months of home confinement and 200 hours of community service in 2012 after admitting buying and smuggling Egyptian antiquities, including coffins, funerary boats and limestone figures.

For sale

A number of other items said to come from the collection of Ezeldeen Taha Eldarir are currently or recently for sale.
Their provenance is described in near identical terms as the British Museum shabti: bought from Salahaddin Sirmali, "authenticated and appraised" by Hossen Rashed, then imported to the US in 1948.

- An Egyptian Mummy mask dating from 700BC-30BC, is on offer for £11,807 ($15,275) online by a seller in Mexico

- A coffin lid dating back to 664BC-332BC was offered for sale by a Colorado-based art dealer, with a starting price of $65,000

- A shabti that was on sale through a Chicago-based coin dealer, dating from 1567BC-1085BC, is up for $1,950

Representing%20UAE%20overseas
%3Cp%3E%0DIf%20Catherine%20Richards%20debuts%20for%20Wales%20in%20the%20Six%20Nations%2C%20she%20will%20be%20the%20latest%20to%20have%20made%20it%20from%20the%20UAE%20to%20the%20top%20tier%20of%20the%20international%20game%20in%20the%20oval%20ball%20codes.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESeren%20Gough-Walters%20(Wales%20rugby%20league)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBorn%20in%20Dubai%2C%20raised%20in%20Sharjah%2C%20and%20once%20an%20immigration%20officer%20at%20the%20British%20Embassy%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi%2C%20she%20debuted%20for%20Wales%20in%20rugby%20league%20in%202021.%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ESophie%20Shams%20(England%20sevens)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EWith%20an%20Emirati%20father%20and%20English%20mother%2C%20Shams%20excelled%20at%20rugby%20at%20school%20in%20Dubai%2C%20and%20went%20on%20to%20represent%20England%20on%20the%20sevens%20circuit.%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%20%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EFiona%20Reidy%20(Ireland)%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EMade%20her%20Test%20rugby%20bow%20for%20Ireland%20against%20England%20in%202015%2C%20having%20played%20for%20four%20years%20in%20the%20capital%20with%20Abu%20Dhabi%20Harlequins%20previously.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A