It’s been a decade since Syria tumbled into the abyss of the most devastating conflict since the Second World War, a bloody struggle that has left at least half a million people dead and 12 million displaced, a region destabilised, a generation lost and a Stalinesque despot still in power.
Initially, no country responded more generously than Turkey. “We will always keep our doors open to our Syrian brothers and sisters,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, then prime minister, vowed in spring 2011.
Within a few years Turkey had welcomed a million Syrian refugees and spent some $3 billion accommodating them in camps The New York Times famously described as perfect. By early 2016, Turkey had taken in some 3.5 million refugees even as wave after wave of asylum-seekers, from Syria, Iran, Afghanistan and Somalia, squeezed into dinghies to attempt perilous crossings of the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean.
A Turkish gendarme retrieves the body of Syrian refugee Alan Kurdi from a beach in Turkey. Reuters
Horrifying images of three-year-old Alan Kurdi lying face down on a Turkish beach shook the world as hundreds of migrants died on the high seas. All those arriving refugees, who were mainly Muslim, inflamed anti-immigrant sentiment across the EU as far-right parties depicted them as criminals and terrorists.
The crisis finally ended when the EU agreed to grant Turkish nationals visa-free travel, amend the EU-Turkey customs union and pay Turkey €6bn (roughly $7bn) for refugee hosting duties. Turkish authorities in turn agreed to curb illegal crossings, after which the EU would begin transferring Syrians from Turkey to EU states in exchange for those who had arrived in the EU illegally. The number of refugee crossings, and deaths at sea, fell sharply as Turkey stepped up security along its borders and cracked down on smugglers.
But then Turkey's generosity ran out. Two years ago, anti-Syrian sentiment played a key role in opposition mayoral candidates defeating their ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) foes in Turkey's two largest cities, Istanbul and Ankara.
Mr Erdogan went back on his vow to keep the doors open and at that year's UN General Assembly detailed a plan to carve out safe zones in northern Syria and build vast tracts of housing there, in an effort to have millions of refugees to return. At the same time, he repeatedly threatened to inundate the EU with migrants by "opening the gates" and allowing refugees to freely cross into Greece.
Ankara has also abetted the violence in Syria, first by allowing thousands of extremist fighters to cross the border and reportedly sending arms to Islamist rebels against President Bashar Al Assad. Turkey has been widely blamed for turning a blind eye to the rise of ISIS in the war’s early years.
An aerial view of a convoy of Turkish military vehicles passing through Maaret Al Numan in Syria's northern province of Idlib, reportedly heading toward the town of Khan Sheikhun in the southern countryside of the province. AFP
A truck carrying a tank. AFP
A convoy of Turkish enters as inhabitants flee the battles and shelling toward safer areas. AFP
The convoy passes through the town of Saraqeb in the northwestern province of Idlib. AFP
The Syrian Foreign Ministry told Sana that the “aggressive” move would not affect “the determination of the Syrian Arab Army to keep hunting the remnants of terrorists”. AFP
The Syrian Foreign Ministry said the convoy was carrying munitions. AFP
Inhabitants of Maaret Al Numan in Syria's northern province of Idlib watch a convoy of Turkish military vehicles reportedly headed to assist rebels against regime forces. AFP
Inhabitants of Maaret Al Numan in Syria's northern province of Idlib watch a convoy of Turkish military vehicles reportedly headed to assist rebels against regime forces. AFP
Inhabitants of Maaret Al Numan in Syria's northern province of Idlib watch a convoy of Turkish military vehicles reportedly headed to assist rebels against regime forces. AFP
Inhabitants of Maaret Al Numan in Syria's northern province of Idlib watch a convoy of Turkish military vehicles reportedly headed to assist rebels against regime forces. AFP
More recently, Turkey has launched three incursions into northern Syria. Military operations in Afrin and north-eastern Syria, where Turkey now controls chunks of territory, sparked allegations of war crimes and ethnic cleansing against the mainly Kurdish population by Turkey-backed rebels.
A year ago, the Russia-backed forces of Mr Al Assad threatened to retake the last rebel stronghold, in Idlib province. Some two to three million displaced Syrians had fled there from other parts of the country and would probably have been forced into Turkey by an Assad regime offensive.
To drive the situation home to Europe, Turkey followed through on Mr Erdogan’s refugee threat, bussing tens of thousands asylum-seekers to the Greek border, leading to clashes and at least one dead. In Idlib, however, the Turkish military intervened and temporarily staved off a catastrophe, agreeing to a ceasefire with Russia that still holds today.
In 2019, Recep Tayyip Erdogan went back on his vow to keep the doors open for refugees and at that year’s UN General Assembly detailed a plan to carve out safe zones in northern Syria. Reuters
The pandemic has dominated the headlines of late, but the millions of refugees in Turkey, along with the displaced in Idlib, still represent a ticking time bomb. Last week, as the Turkey-EU deal marked five years, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the EU had failed to fulfill its promises on a customs union update and visa-free travel. The deal is set to expire when the EU fulfils its financial commitment, likely sometime in the next year. Turkish officials have said it should be renewed, but not before a thorough revisit.
In an op-ed for Bloomberg last week, Mr Erdogan re-issued his refugee threat, demanding western powers invest in Turkey’s plan to return Syrians to areas it controls in the country’s north. “Failure to share Turkey’s burden may result in fresh waves of migration towards Europe,” he warned.
Last week, the EU decided to hold off on sanctioning Turkey for its drilling operations in the eastern Mediterranean, signalling a warming in relations as European leaders head to a summit in Brussels later this week. But the EU seems lukewarm about a new refugee deal.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell last week said the current deal had produced results and remained in effect. As attempted crossings have fallen sharply during the pandemic, so too have fears of mass migration, along with the outlook for far-right parties such as Alternative for Germany. And Europe appears to have gotten over the moral hurdle of using force and other legally questionable means to push back migrants. A year ago, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, applauded the aggressive tactics used by Greek security forces against migrants on land and at sea, describing Greece as “Europe’s shield”.
Of course, this could all change in a flash. As vaccine-driven immunity takes hold and the weather warms, the refugee waves could return, in part because Syrians in Turkey remain torn between putting down roots and making plans to move on.
More than 100,000 have become Turkish citizens and some 500,000 children have been born to Syrians in Turkey. Yet as of late 2019, nearly two-thirds of Syrians outside the camps lived close to or below the poverty line, according to the Brookings Institution. The pandemic has made matters worse: 87 per cent of refugees surveyed last year by Relief International reported that someone in their household had lost their job because of Covid-19.
Syrian refugees board buses to take them back to their country in the Esenyurt district of Istanbul on November 6, 2019. Emrah Gurel for The National
A total of 143 Syrian refugees were sent back to their homelands in Jarablus, Damascus, Aleppo, Azaz, Al Bab and Afrin in Syria. Emrah Gurel for The National
A Syrian refugees holds his child as they board one of the buses at Esenyurt Municipality garden in Istanbul, Turkey. Emrah Gurel for The National
Syrian families load their belongings on to buses at the Esenyurt Municipality garden in Istanbul before being driven to Syria. Emrah Gurel for The National
Syrian families load their belongings on to buses at the Esenyurt Municipality garden in Istanbul before being driven to Syria. Emrah Gurel for The National
Syrians to prepare to return to their homeland aboard buses departing from the Esenyurt Municipality garden in Istanbul, Turkey. Emrah Gurel for The National
The mayor of Esenyurt, Kemal Deniz Bozkurt holds a press briefing about the departure of the Syrian refugees. Emrah Gurel for The National
Syrian families load their belongings on to buses at the Esenyurt Municipality garden in Istanbul before being driven to Syria. Emrah Gurel for The National
Syrian families load their belongings on to buses at the Esenyurt Municipality garden in Istanbul before being driven to Syria. Emrah Gurel for The National
Syrian refugees board buses taking them back to Syria from Turkey at the Esenyurt Municipality garden in Istanbul on November 6, 2019. Emrah Gurel for The National
A Syrian boy gestures as he waits to leave for Syria with his family at the Esenyurt Municipality garden in Istanbul, Turkey. Emrah Gurel for The National
Surely the millions of displaced Syrians have earned the dignity of not being treated like political pawns
At the same time, Syrians appear to have worn out their welcome. “Turks change their attitudes toward us from one day to the next,” a Syrian journalist who has learned Turkish and gained her citizenship since arriving in Istanbul in 2012 told Synaps, a research and analysis site. “They don’t know if they should like us because we share a common history, or dislike us because we’re filthy Arabs and agents of destruction.”
After all these years, it is understandable that Turks might have tired of being good hosts. They have done their part. But the reality is that the vast majority of the six to seven million Syrians in Turkey and Idlib province will not soon be returning home, where many are likely to face detention or forced disappearance.
These people have lost more than most of us could imagine. For a decade they have struggled and suffered. Surely they have earned the dignity of not being treated like political pawns, or cattle to be herded from one place to the next. It's time for Europe, the US and the international community to work with Turkey to devise a Syrian resettlement plan that includes housing and employment opportunities, and offers a real chance to build new lives.
David Lepeska is a Turkish and Eastern Mediterranean affairs columnist for The National
How to improve Arabic reading in early years
One 45-minute class per week in Standard Arabic is not sufficient
The goal should be for grade 1 and 2 students to become fluent readers
Subjects like technology, social studies, science can be taught in later grades
Grade 1 curricula should include oral instruction in Standard Arabic
First graders must regularly practice individual letters and combinations
Time should be slotted in class to read longer passages in early grades
Improve the appearance of textbooks
Revision of curriculum should be undertaken as per research findings
Conjugations of most common verb forms should be taught
Systematic learning of Standard Arabic grammar
Breast cancer in men: the facts
1) Breast cancer is men is rare but can develop rapidly. It usually occurs in those over the ages of 60, but can occasionally affect younger men.
2) Symptoms can include a lump, discharge, swollen glands or a rash.
3) People with a history of cancer in the family can be more susceptible.
4) Treatments include surgery and chemotherapy but early diagnosis is the key.
5) Anyone concerned is urged to contact their doctor
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
The company offers payments/bribes to win key contracts in the Middle East
May 2017
The UK SFO officially opens investigation into Petrofac’s use of agents, corruption, and potential bribery to secure contracts
September 2021
Petrofac pleads guilty to seven counts of failing to prevent bribery under the UK Bribery Act
October 2021
Court fines Petrofac £77 million for bribery. Former executive receives a two-year suspended sentence
December 2024
Petrofac enters into comprehensive restructuring to strengthen the financial position of the group
May 2025
The High Court of England and Wales approves the company’s restructuring plan
July 2025
The Court of Appeal issues a judgment challenging parts of the restructuring plan
August 2025
Petrofac issues a business update to execute the restructuring and confirms it will appeal the Court of Appeal decision
October 2025
Petrofac loses a major TenneT offshore wind contract worth €13 billion. Holding company files for administration in the UK. Petrofac delisted from the London Stock Exchange
Tenants also require a letter of no objection from their landlord before being allowed to list the property.
There is a cost of Dh1,590 before starting the process, with an additional licence fee of Dh300 per bedroom being rented in your home for the duration of the rental, which ranges from three months to a year.
Anyone hoping to list a property for rental must also provide a copy of their title deeds and Ejari, as well as their Emirates ID.
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
