It is often said of American presidents that their first term is orientated towards domestic policy, while their second – when they are freed from the constraints of seeking re-election – tends to focus more on foreign policy. Translate term into decade and the observation could apply equally to Vladimir Putin, who completed 20 years at the top of Russian politics in August and could remain in office until 2024.
Mr Putin spent his first two presidential terms, from 2000 to 2008, trying to keep the Russian Federation together and halt the centrifugal forces that had destroyed the Soviet Union. Having largely succeeded – in part by waging a war on separatist forces in Chechnya and forcing uncooperative oligarchs into exile or compliance – Mr Putin could start to think about putting Russia back on the international map.
Over the past decade, Mr Putin has presided over three big changes. One is the spread of relative prosperity across Russia. The second is the incidence of political protest and the third – by far the most striking – is the switch to a more active foreign policy.
It is true that the steady rise in Russian living standards through Mr Putin’s early years recently stalled. But the slowdown is most marked in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, where the rise in wealth – and inequality – had been sharpest before. In the provincial cities and towns where most Russians live, the past 10 years have produced almost unimaginable improvements in incomes, housing, the infrastructure and the consumer sphere. This helps to explain why, despite a dip in his ratings over an announced rise in the pension age, Mr Putin remains popular. Most Russians, not just privileged Russians, really have never had it so good.
The proposed rise in the pension age – announced just before Russia hosted the football World Cup in 2018 – precipitated protests across Russia. But pensions and state benefits have always been inflammatory. More telling has been the rise in other types of popular protest in these years.
They included demonstrations against what were seen as rigged parliamentary elections in 2011, against Mr Putin’s decision to run for the presidency again the next year, and in 2019 against the perceived manipulation of Moscow elections. While such overtly political protests have been largely confined to Moscow and Saint Petersburg, there has also been an upsurge in protests on local issues, such as the environment and corruption – though so far, none has coalesced into nor necessarily reflects a national movement. Unwelcome though such protests might be to the Kremlin, this has been a period of growing citizen engagement.
But it in the shift to a more active foreign policy that has mostly defined Russia's last decade. Before 2010, Mr Putin had increasingly voiced frustration, even anger, with the West for – as he saw it – exploiting its post-Cold War dominance to expand the European Union and especially Nato right up to Russia's borders. After 2010, he seems to have written off any speedy rapprochement with the West and started looking elsewhere for friends and diplomatic gains.
Relations with Xi Jinping’s China have warmed rapidly, with joint military exercises held in 2018 and a gas pipeline deal recently announced. Mr Putin still entertains the hope of a settlement over the Southern Kurile Islands, which could unlock investment from Japan, and the flourishing of trade relations with South Korea.
Russia also appears to be becoming more active in parts of Africa, including Libya, adopting the US practice of employing proxies to maintain deniability. But it is Mr Putin’s use of Russian power in Ukraine and Syria that stand out, and could have the longest-lasting repercussions.
Mr Putin responded immediately and dramatically to the uprising against Ukraine’s elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, moving to annex Crimea – where Russia had a 30-year lease on the warm-water naval base at Sevastopol – and lending support to a pro-Russia separatist rebellion in the south-east. Mr Putin’s actions prompted sanctions from the US and much of Europe but propelled Mr Putin’s popularity at home to unprecedented heights and perversely boosted sectors of the Russian economy as Moscow took measures to replace imports.
The following year, 2015, Mr Putin unexpectedly translated Russia's rhetorical and moral backing for Syria's president, Bashar Al Assad, into military, largely air, support in what began as an offshoot of the Arab uprisings but had escalated into an all-out civil war involving many foreign players and proxies. Four years on, Russia's support is seen as vital in having kept Mr Al Assad in power and defeating the forces of ISIS and other militant groups.
Some see Russia’s actions in Ukraine and Syria as showing Mr Putin’s inherently opportunistic nature, and perhaps even territorial ambition. But the Soviet Afghan war still haunts Mr Putin’s generation of policymakers, and his approach to military intervention tends to be wary and reflective primarily of security considerations.
In Syria, Mr Putin was clear that Russia's motives were less to keep Mr Al Assad in power than to prevent the sort of anarchy that followed western interventions in Iraq and Libya. In Ukraine, Russia's security and economic interests were obvious. But consequences of each have been very different. Russia could well find itself paying for the short-term gain of Crimea with the loss of all influence in Ukraine and its eventual incorporation into the western bloc. In Syria, Russia's limited military operations have earned it a role, perhaps the chief role, in the post-war settlement and a return to being a player in the region.
Our 'end of the decade' series
None of this, however, alters the fact that Mr Putin sees Russia as a European power and would seize the chance to have better relations with both Europe and the United States. The first was frustrated by the EU-Russia tussle for Ukraine and not helped by the 2018 Salisbury poisonings of a former Russian military officer and his daughter. The second seemed briefly possible after Donald Trump was elected as US president, only to vanish as “Russiagate” consumed political Washington.
To the extent that he avoided international ostracism after Crimea, by courting other players around the world, Mr Putin has shown that, for Russia, good relations with the West are dispensable. But the continuing stand-off with the US and the coolness with much of Europe leaves Mr Putin’s international agenda incomplete. He might, however, still have time.
As Mr Putin enters his third decade and perhaps his last four years in power, another trend is emerging. Even as Russia completes a comprehensive modernisation of its military, its president seems to be turning away from hard power to soft.
As an attempt to enhance Russia’s international image, the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi failed. The successes were drowned out by western criticism and soon eclipsed by the conflict over Ukraine. The 2018 World Cup, in contrast, was universally lauded for the warmth of Russia’s welcome and the quality of its organisation. In Syria, Russia has been moving from armed force to diplomacy and tentatively with Ukraine, too. There is more finesse, in the way Russia presents itself to the world. And Mr Putin occasionally allows his habitual serious face to betray a faint smile.
What a difference a decade can make.
Mary Dejevsky is an Independent columnist on foreign affairs, having previously been the title’s foreign correspondent in Moscow, Paris and Washington
Favourite things
Luxury: Enjoys window shopping for high-end bags and jewellery
Discount: She works in luxury retail, but is careful about spending, waits for sales, festivals and only buys on discount
University: The only person in her family to go to college, Jiang secured a bachelor’s degree in business management in China
Masters: Studying part-time for a master’s degree in international business marketing in Dubai
Vacation: Heads back home to see family in China
Community work: Member of the Chinese Business Women’s Association of the UAE to encourage other women entrepreneurs
Best Foreign Language Film nominees
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Mohammed bin Zayed Majlis
57%20Seconds
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Test
Director: S Sashikanth
Cast: Nayanthara, Siddharth, Meera Jasmine, R Madhavan
Star rating: 2/5
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
How will Gen Alpha invest?
Mark Chahwan, co-founder and chief executive of robo-advisory firm Sarwa, forecasts that Generation Alpha (born between 2010 and 2024) will start investing in their teenage years and therefore benefit from compound interest.
“Technology and education should be the main drivers to make this happen, whether it’s investing in a few clicks or their schools/parents stepping up their personal finance education skills,” he adds.
Mr Chahwan says younger generations have a higher capacity to take on risk, but for some their appetite can be more cautious because they are investing for the first time. “Schools still do not teach personal finance and stock market investing, so a lot of the learning journey can feel daunting and intimidating,” he says.
He advises millennials to not always start with an aggressive portfolio even if they can afford to take risks. “We always advise to work your way up to your risk capacity, that way you experience volatility and get used to it. Given the higher risk capacity for the younger generations, stocks are a favourite,” says Mr Chahwan.
Highlighting the role technology has played in encouraging millennials and Gen Z to invest, he says: “They were often excluded, but with lower account minimums ... a customer with $1,000 [Dh3,672] in their account has their money working for them just as hard as the portfolio of a high get-worth individual.”
RESULTS
Men
1 Marius Kipserem (KEN) 2:04:04
2 Abraham Kiptum (KEN) 2:04:16
3 Dejene Debela Gonfra (ETH) 2:07:06
4 Thomas Rono (KEN) 2:07:12
5 Stanley Biwott (KEN) 2:09:18
Women
1 Ababel Yeshaneh (ETH) 2:20:16
2 Eunice Chumba (BRN) 2:20:54
3 Gelete Burka (ETH) 2:24:07
4 Chaltu Tafa (ETH) 2:25:09
5 Caroline Kilel (KEN) 2:29:14
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
FFP EXPLAINED
What is Financial Fair Play?
Introduced in 2011 by Uefa, European football’s governing body, it demands that clubs live within their means. Chiefly, spend within their income and not make substantial losses.
What the rules dictate?
The second phase of its implementation limits losses to €30 million (Dh136m) over three seasons. Extra expenditure is permitted for investment in sustainable areas (youth academies, stadium development, etc). Money provided by owners is not viewed as income. Revenue from “related parties” to those owners is assessed by Uefa's “financial control body” to be sure it is a fair value, or in line with market prices.
What are the penalties?
There are a number of punishments, including fines, a loss of prize money or having to reduce squad size for European competition – as happened to PSG in 2014. There is even the threat of a competition ban, which could in theory lead to PSG’s suspension from the Uefa Champions League.
Abu Dhabi Card
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 1,400m
National selection: AF Mohanak
5.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh 90,000 1,400m
National selection: Jayide Al Boraq
6pm: Handicap (TB) Dh 100,000 1,400m
National selection: Rocket Power
6.30pm: Abu Dhabi Championship Listed (PA) Dh 180,000 1,600m
National selection: Ihtesham
7pm: Wathba Stallions Cup Handicap (PA) Dh 70,000 1,600m
National selection: Noof KB
7.30pm: Maiden (PA) Dh 80,000 2.200m
National selection: EL Faust
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
MOUNTAINHEAD REVIEW
Starring: Ramy Youssef, Steve Carell, Jason Schwartzman
Director: Jesse Armstrong
Rating: 3.5/5
The specs
Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylturbo
Transmission: seven-speed DSG automatic
Power: 242bhp
Torque: 370Nm
Price: Dh136,814
Fire and Fury
By Michael Wolff,
Henry Holt
Guide to intelligent investing
Investing success often hinges on discipline and perspective. As markets fluctuate, remember these guiding principles:
- Stay invested: Time in the market, not timing the market, is critical to long-term gains.
- Rational thinking: Breathe and avoid emotional decision-making; let logic and planning guide your actions.
- Strategic patience: Understand why you’re investing and allow time for your strategies to unfold.
If you go
The flights
Emirates and Etihad fly direct to Nairobi, with fares starting from Dh1,695. The resort can be reached from Nairobi via a 35-minute flight from Wilson Airport or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport, or by road, which takes at least three hours.
The rooms
Rooms at Fairmont Mount Kenya range from Dh1,870 per night for a deluxe room to Dh11,000 per night for the William Holden Cottage.
The specs: 2018 Range Rover Velar R-Dynamic HSE
Price, base / as tested: Dh263,235 / Dh420,000
Engine: 3.0-litre supercharged V6
Power 375hp @ 6,500rpm
Torque: 450Nm @ 3,500rpm
Transmission: Eight-speed automatic
Fuel consumption, combined: 9.4L / 100kms
Alita: Battle Angel
Director: Robert Rodriguez
Stars: Rosa Salazar, Christoph Waltz, Keean Johnson
Four stars
Gulf Under 19s
Pools
A – Dubai College, Deira International School, Al Ain Amblers, Warriors
B – Dubai English Speaking College, Repton Royals, Jumeirah College, Gems World Academy
C – British School Al Khubairat, Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Dubai Hurricanes, Al Yasmina Academy
D – Dubai Exiles, Jumeirah English Speaking School, English College, Bahrain Colts
Recent winners
2018 – Dubai College
2017 – British School Al Khubairat
2016 – Dubai English Speaking School
2015 – Al Ain Amblers
2014 – Dubai College
Traits of Chinese zodiac animals
Tiger:independent, successful, volatile
Rat:witty, creative, charming
Ox:diligent, perseverent, conservative
Rabbit:gracious, considerate, sensitive
Dragon:prosperous, brave, rash
Snake:calm, thoughtful, stubborn
Horse:faithful, energetic, carefree
Sheep:easy-going, peacemaker, curious
Monkey:family-orientated, clever, playful
Rooster:honest, confident, pompous
Dog:loyal, kind, perfectionist
Boar:loving, tolerant, indulgent
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Power: 727hp
Torque: 1,000Nm
Transmission: 8-speed auto
Fuel consumption: 10.6L/100km
On sale: Now
Price: From Dh650,000
Dubai Bling season three
Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed
Rating: 1/5
SHALASH%20THE%20IRAQI
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A little about CVRL
Founded in 1985 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid, Vice President and Ruler of Dubai, the Central Veterinary Research Laboratory (CVRL) is a government diagnostic centre that provides testing and research facilities to the UAE and neighbouring countries.
One of its main goals is to provide permanent treatment solutions for veterinary related diseases.
The taxidermy centre was established 12 years ago and is headed by Dr Ulrich Wernery.
Fixtures
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWednesday%2C%20April%203%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EArsenal%20v%20Luton%20Town%2C%2010.30pm%20(UAE)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3EManchester%20City%20v%20Aston%20Villa%2C%2011.15pm%20(UAE)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EThursday%2C%20April%204%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3ELiverpool%20v%20Sheffield%20United%2C%2010.30pm%20(UAE)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai
16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership
Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.
Zones
A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Our family matters legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
The End of Loneliness
Benedict Wells
Translated from the German by Charlotte Collins
Sceptre
Bundesliga fixtures
Saturday, May 16 (kick-offs UAE time)
Borussia Dortmund v Schalke (4.30pm)
RB Leipzig v Freiburg (4.30pm)
Hoffenheim v Hertha Berlin (4.30pm)
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Paderborn (4.30pm)
Augsburg v Wolfsburg (4.30pm)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Borussia Monchengladbach (7.30pm)
Sunday, May 17
Cologne v Mainz (4.30pm),
Union Berlin v Bayern Munich (7pm)
Monday, May 18
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen (9.30pm)
THE SPECS
Engine: 1.5-litre turbocharged four-cylinder
Transmission: Constant Variable (CVT)
Power: 141bhp
Torque: 250Nm
Price: Dh64,500
On sale: Now