Implementation of the Trump administration's peace deal with the Taliban on February 29 can hardly be said to have got off to an auspicious start. Just two days after the two sides signed what was supposed to be the breakthrough agreement in America's two decades-long involvement in Afghanistan, US warplanes were in action against Taliban fighters in the country's southern Helmand province after the militants launched an attack against a checkpoint held by the Afghan army.
A spokesman for the US military in Kabul said the action had been a “defensive strike” to aid an ally. “We are committed to peace. However, we have the responsibility to defend our partners,” he said before adding that the Taliban appeared to be intent on squandering the opportunity for peace “and ignoring the will of the people".
The American attack certainly does not conform with the spirit of the agreement, where the two sides are supposed to have committed themselves to avoid conflict.
Under the terms, the Americans have agreed to withdraw all allied forces from Afghanistan within 14 months in return for the Taliban pledging not to co-operate with terrorist organisations, such as Al Qaeda, that seek to use the country as a base from which to launch attacks against the US and its allies. There is also a requirement that the Taliban open talks with the Afghan government, which was not involved in the peace negotiations, on establishing a ceasefire and agreeing power-sharing arrangements.
It was the Taliban’s alliance with Al Qaeda that prompted the US-led coalition to invade Afghanistan in 2001 and overthrow its government after Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden masterminded the September 11 attacks from his Afghan base. Persuading the Taliban to sever all ties with Al Qaeda was, therefore, supposed to be one of the fundamental conditions for any peace deal.
Consequently, the Trump administration’s willingness to compromise on this central issue, and simply settle for a vague undertaking from the Taliban, has encouraged the belief within the group that the White House is not so much interested in securing a lasting peace deal as being able to withdraw the 12,000 or so troops still based there.
It is understandable that there should be fatigue in Washington over America’s involvement in the Afghan conflict, which has so far cost the lives of more than 2,400 US soldiers and cost the taxpayer an estimated $2 trillion. Overall, the conflict has claimed the lives of about 3,500 service personnel, as well as tens of thousands of Afghans.
Nevertheless, US President Donald Trump's failure to secure agreement on the key condition that the Taliban completely severs its ties with jihadist groups is hardly a reassuring outcome for the Afghan people, and lends credence to the view that Mr Trump's overwhelming priority is the withdrawal of troops ahead of the presidential election in November.
Indeed, even though the Taliban is reported to have carried out about 80 attacks in the past two weeks, Washington has already started its withdrawal, which will – under the terms of the agreement – see its force level reduced to 8,600 this summer. The remaining forces, along with 8,000 foreign troops and tens of thousands of contractors, are set to leave by May next year.
There are other shortcomings in the deal.
Members of on both sides of the political divide in the US Congress have expressed concern about two annexes to the agreement that detail the exact conditions under which the US withdrawal will be undertaken. The administration insists the annexes must remain secret – even though the Taliban has been able to see them – because they contain sensitive details of future troop deployments as the withdrawal gets under way; this is information that could be exploited by enemy forces, such as Al Qaeda and ISIS, if it were to fall into the wrong hands.
Critics say Mr Trump is concealing the details because they do not explain how the US will respond if, at a future date, the Taliban reneges on the deal and continues its terror campaign against ordinary Afghans.
Mr Trump, who had a phone call with a senior Taliban leader after the deal was signed, rejects the criticism, insisting that "the Taliban wants to do something to show that we are not all wasting our time". Asked what he might do if the Taliban did not keep to its end of the bargain, Mr Trump said: "If bad things happen, we'll go back."
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Ashraf Ghani, a former professor and World Bank employee, was declared President this week after disputed results dragged out the final election outcome for months. He narrowly secured his win in the contested race by garnering 50.6 per cent of the disputed vote. He will serve five more years as President. After being excluded from last year’s failed US-Taliban peace negotiations, the Pashtun politician demanded to play a bigger role in this year’s talks. But at the behest of the Taliban he was not invited to participate in the discussions. The reasons for his exclusion are two-fold, first, the Taliban does not recognise the legitimacy of the Afghan government. Second, the Taliban’s priority in the negotiations is the removal of foreign forces from the country, which can only be promised by American negotiators. As a result, Mr Ghani remains sceptical of the deal’s success. Being one step removed from the process, and having few other options available to him, Mr Ghani finds himself in a position where he must acquiesce to the final deal without providing much input into the terms. Mr Ghani's position is shaky going into the proposed intra-Afghan negotiations as both the Taliban and Mr Ghani's opponent Abdullah Abdullah are refusing to accept his presidential win. Photo: EPA -
Abdullah Abdullah, a former eye surgeon, serves as the country’s Chief Executive. He is the only person to ever hold the title, which brings with it prime ministerial duties. The newly created post was the result of the US mediating an awkward power-sharing deal after the 2014 elections. Dr Abdullah has unsuccessfully sought the presidency three times. After losing the election to Mr Ghani this week, Dr Abdullah decried that he would form his own government and boycott the election results. He went so far as to call the country’s independent election commissions “unlawful.” With the peace deal aiming to ending a tense political stand-off between the Afghan government and the Taliban, it seems frictions within the Afghan government could lead to a new stand-off, one between Mr Ghani and his opponents, putting at risk the intra-Afghan discussions that are baked into the trade agreement. Photo: AP -
Gen Abdul Rashid Dostum was controversially chosen as Mr Ghani’s vice-president in the 2014 election. But after a falling out, Gen Dostum decided to put his support behind Mr Ghani’s opponent Dr Abdullah in the latest election. The Uzbek former warlord has been the target of several assassination attempts and faces a litany of human rights accusations against him, which include claims of torture and rape. The Afghan army general has fleed to Turkey when accusations mounted against him in the past. In 2017, Gen Dostum's political rival Ahmad Ishchi said he had been abducted, tortured and raped by Gen Dostum. Several people came forward to say they witnessed the abuse, prompting Gen Dostum to flee to Turkey. Gen Dostum could interfere in the pending intra-Afghan talks, as he's expressed discontent with the election results and threatened to form a “parallel government.” No stranger to extremity, his erratic behaviour threatens the stability of Afghanistan’s government during this crucial peace process. Photo: Getty Images -
Amrullah Saleh was Mr Ghani’s running mate in the 2019 election, and is set to take on the role of vice-president. Mr Saleh is an ex-intelligence chief who has not shied away from doling out fierce criticisms against the president. The Tajik politician enjoys grass roots support among young people, which provided an advantage to Mr Ghani’s campaign. Mr Saleh was the target of an attack against his office within the Kabul headquarters of the Green Trend party during the summer of 2019. The attack killed 20 people and injured 50, resulting in a six-hour operation to rescue more than 150 civilians trapped in the aftermath of the blast. The attack came just hours after Mr Ghani and Mr Saleh launched their election campaign. Photo: REUTERS -
Sarwar Danish, a Hazara politician, was chosen for the role of second vice-president during Mr Ghani’s 2014 campaign. He retained the position in the latest election. Mr Danish has been strongly critical of the peace negotiations, emphasising that peace cannot be achieved by sidelining the government from talks. He called the reduction in violence agreement a “vague proposal” intended to deceive citizens and the international community. Photo: REUTERS -
Hamid Karzai was the first elected President of Afghanistan and held the role for almost 10 years, reigning during much of the US war in Afghanistan. The Pashtun tribal leader was the first Afghan official to work alongside the Americans in attempting to forge a peace deal with the Taliban. In 2010, during his presidency, Mr Karzai made peace negotiations a priority. Unlike today’s negotiations, Mr Karzai attempted to negotiate directly with the Taliban, and invited a wide range of actors to the table, including the Americans, the Taliban, tribal leaders and other influential members of Afghan society. Photo: Reuters -
As the leader of the Taliban, Mawlawi Hibatullah Akhundzada agreed to bring the insurgent group to the negotiation table. He is acting in an advisory role throughout the discussions, serving as the steering force for chief negotiator Mr Baradar. But it falls upon Mawlawi Akhundzada to make the final decision when it comes to whether the Taliban will accept the final deal. Last week, he threatened to pull out of the negotiations if the Americans did not respond formally to the Taliban’s seven-day offer for a reduction of violence. AFP PHOTO / AFGHAN TALIBAN -
Abdul Ghani Baradar runs the Taliban’s political office in Doha and has taken on the role of chief negotiator for the insurgent group during these negotiations. He’s credited with helping to establish the group’s strong position in the country, having served as the number two in command for the group’s founding leader Mohammed Omar. He was a key senior operative for the group, who once held a reputation for being even-keeled, before he fled to Pakistan when the Americans arrived in 2001. Mr Baradar was arrested in a 2010 raid and remained in a Pakistani prison for eight years. His release is believed to have been a part of a deal struck between the Americans and the Taliban. Photo: AFP -
Abdul Salam Hanafi is one of the central negotiators at the table representing the Taliban. He serves as deputy head of the group’s political office in Doha. On Monday, he said the Americans and the Taliban were already drafting the final peace agreement. He added that representatives from all neighbours of Afghanistan, the United Nations Security Council, Islamic countries and European Union would be invited to the ceremony that would be held in Doha if the deal is finalised. Mr Hanafi previously served as the Taliban’s deputy minister of education and held leadership positions in the country’s northern territories. As a senior member of the group, he was added to the United Nations sanctions list in 2001, accused of being involved in drug trafficking. Photo: AP -
Suhail Shaheen has served as a public figurehead for the insurgent group throughout the negotiations. He is a fluent English speaker known to give interviews to international media outlets. During the Taliban’s rule in the country, which lasted from 1996 to 2001, Mr Shaheen served as the editor of the English-language Kabul Times newspaper. He's also held senior roles within the Taliban, such as deputy ambassador at the Afghan embassy in Pakistan. Many of the statements regarding the Taliban’s position in the negotiations are delivered through Mr Shaheen. Photo: AFP -
US President Donald Trump is serving as the “closer” in the negotiations. In 2019’s negotiations, he took on a similar role by inviting the Taliban to Camp David to close the deal. Amid strife between his top advisers and the death of an American soldier in Afghanistan, Mr Trump abruptly declared the peace talks "dead." Mr Trump has proven to be more patient and flexible during this round of negotiations. If the withdrawal is accomplished, the American negotiators would have fulfilled a Trump campaign promise to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan, well-timed before the presidential election in November. Photo: EPA -
US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad is the chief negotiator on the American side, colloquially referred to as “Zal,” he was the only Afghan working in the White House during the September 11 attacks. This is his second attempt to help US President Donald Trump finalise a peace deal with the Taliban. The Afghan-born diplomat, who serves as the main intermediary between the Americans and the Taliban, nearly finalised a peace agreement last year, before Trump abruptly cancelled the deal. While the heavy lifting of the negotiations is being led by Mr Khalilzad, the diplomat is working on behalf of the White House, the Pentagon and the US intelligence community, who must all agree to the final terms of the deal. Photo: AFP -
US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has served in many capacities throughout the negotiations, most notably acting as the US spokesman, delivering major updates about the US position to both the public and to Afghan officials. At the Munich Security Conference in February, Mr Pompeo held sideline meetings with key Afghan officials, including Mr Ghani and Mr Abdullah to discuss the negotiation process that appeared close to finalisation. Photo: AFP -
US Defence Secretary Mark Esper has operated throughout these discussions on behalf of the 3,500 American and Nato service members that have been killed since 2001. His position remains cautiously optimistic. He called the reduction in violence proposal “very promising,” but holds on to scepticism regarding the success of its implementation. “The best if not the only way forward in Afghanistan is through a political agreement and that means taking some risk,” he said. Photo: REUTERS -
US Army General Austin Scott Miller took over the post of commander of American and coalition forces in Afghanistan in 2018. During his tenure, Mr Miller ramped up air strikes in the country in the hopes of forcing the Taliban to the negotiation table. But it’s led to a further escalation as the Taliban responded with increasing violence in the country. Gen Miller has previously advocated for a smaller American presence in Afghanistan, stating that he does not require tens of thousands of US troops in the country to successfully fulfill the US combat and training operations. Photo: AFP -
Qater is hosting the peace talks, with Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, the deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs, playing a mediating role in the negotiations. Sheikh Al Thani has been a liaison between the Americans and the Taliban from the beginning of the negotiations, sitting in on several of the key discussions. When the Taliban’s chief negotiator Mr Baradar delivered an ultimatum to the Americans, demanding they accept the offered seven-day reduction in violence, rather than the American’s requested 10-days, it was Sheikh Al Thani that mediated the deadlock, according to pro-Taliban media. Photo: AFP
The other major concern about the deal relates to the requirement that the Taliban undertakes talks with the country’s democratically elected government.
The Taliban has never recognised the government, claiming it is nothing more than a stooge of the Americans. Moreover, questions remain about the credibility of the new administration formed by President Ashraf Ghani following the recent presidential election, which resulted in the country’s lowest-ever turnout; just 1.82 million of the 9.6 million registered voters cast their ballot. Of these, one million votes were discarded due to irregularities
In other words, Mr Ghani can hardly claim a resounding victory, especially as his main rival, Abdullah Abdullah, continues to contest the outcome to the extent that he has now formed his own government.
So, far from setting the conditions conducive for negotiating a deal, the political stalemate in Kabul will simply confirm the Taliban’s view that, once foreign forces have withdrawn, the entire Afghan state will be at their mercy.
Con Coughlin is the Telegraph’s defence and foreign affairs editor
