UK is running out of options to spur an economic recovery


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While it has its charms, the London Wetland Centre is not a first-rank visitor attraction in a city bursting with international landmarks of culture and history. The wetlands do have a niche appeal, however, especially for families seeking a fun day out during the summer holiday period. So imagine how disconcerting it was to find that I could wander for huge sections a few days ago without seeing another patron.

The pandemic-triggered lockdown wiped out 20 per cent of the British economy in the first half of the year, although it has eased in recent months and the bounce-back in June was eight per cent.

As my trip to the wetlands in mid-August demonstrates, there is a powerful mental lock on people's outdoor movements. The Covid-19 death toll in the UK is among the highest in the world because the Conservative government waited just too long to trigger the stay-at-home message. There is a powerful correlation between the death toll at lockdown and the subsequent path of infection.

  • Neighbours clap for the NHS and other key workers. Danny Burrows
    Neighbours clap for the NHS and other key workers. Danny Burrows
  • Taken on a bike ride round a local park in Bristol. Bill Ward Photography
    Taken on a bike ride round a local park in Bristol. Bill Ward Photography
  • The rainbow balloon entrance at the National Hospital for Neurology and Neurosurgery. Historic England
    The rainbow balloon entrance at the National Hospital for Neurology and Neurosurgery. Historic England
  • Shopping in Wolverhampton. Anand Chhabra
    Shopping in Wolverhampton. Anand Chhabra
  • Photographed whilst enjoying some exercise during lockdown. Historic England
    Photographed whilst enjoying some exercise during lockdown. Historic England
  • 'Life in Lockdown' Bottle Alley, St Leonards-on-Sea. Chloe Dewe Mathews
    'Life in Lockdown' Bottle Alley, St Leonards-on-Sea. Chloe Dewe Mathews
  • 'Working more shifts, longer shifts, more emotionally draining shifts than ever before.' Historic England
    'Working more shifts, longer shifts, more emotionally draining shifts than ever before.' Historic England
  • The rainbow became a symbol of honouring the NHS. Anand Chhabra
    The rainbow became a symbol of honouring the NHS. Anand Chhabra
  • Owen Bull, just before his 14th birthday, planting vegetable seeds in the garden due to the difficulty in getting food deliveries during Covid 19 lockdown. Historic England
    Owen Bull, just before his 14th birthday, planting vegetable seeds in the garden due to the difficulty in getting food deliveries during Covid 19 lockdown. Historic England
  • Piccadilly Circus in central London is usually packed with people and cars. Alla Bogdanovic
    Piccadilly Circus in central London is usually packed with people and cars. Alla Bogdanovic
  • This is the first week of lockdown when we first started the Joe Wicks PE sessions in the living room. Francesca Brecciaroli
    This is the first week of lockdown when we first started the Joe Wicks PE sessions in the living room. Francesca Brecciaroli
  • "It was the first time since the official lockdown I'd been able to visit the supermarket so the queuing outside was all new to me," said Michaela Strivens. Historic England
    "It was the first time since the official lockdown I'd been able to visit the supermarket so the queuing outside was all new to me," said Michaela Strivens. Historic England

On the other side of the "sombrero-shaped" graph of the coronavirus caseload, the unwinding is fitful. More than its neighbours, the British economy has a lot of ground to make up. There is an undisguised race among countries to be at the forefront of the recovery. Unfortunately it is a race that even the magazine that Prime Minister Boris Johnson used to edit, The Spectator, last week declared his government was losing. Badly.

Much of British prosperity in recent decades was built on growth of the services sector following the relative eclipse of manufacture and raw materials. On top of that, a strong consumer bias within the economy made up for weakness in export-led sectors.

You might think that services are more easily adapted to the work-from-home shift than factory floor-reliant businesses in, say, Germany. But several factors turned that assumption on its head. For one, Germany found a combination of measures to ensure the outbreak was smaller. About four in five businesses did not shut down during the peak lockdown period.

Demand for the UK's services was also hard hit. Whatever happens from here, economists expect British retail sales to be one-quarter lower in 2020 than 2019.

The London Wetland Centre is a conservation hub but it provides a service. Every day it cannot open is a lost chunk of business. That its potential visitors are still reluctant to travel to its paths is an ongoing blow to its revenue.

A manicurist could only resume offering services on Saturday due to ongoing government curbs on specific sectors. Gyms have reopened but only under strictures of social distancing.

Journeys by car have finally returned to pre-crisis levels but this may be because risk-averse Britons are avoiding public transport. Thus actual levels of those on the move are still lower. Mobile phone data from around Europe shows the UK has the highest proportion of people at home during any given snapshot.

An effort to allow holidays abroad in countries designated for travel corridors has collapsed and the government is now facing the wrath of those in France, who are this weekend scrambling to get home after quarantine was suddenly reimposed.

Some businesses have adapted but it is questionable how viable new lines of activity are likely to be over the long run.

Turnbull and Asser, a central London tailor favoured by the dapper Prince Charles, turned its sewing machines to make personal protective equipment at the height of the hospital crisis. It is now selling vividly patterned face masks that resemble its distinctive cotton shirt range. The commuter mask sells for £45 while a tie from the firm sells for £133 and a made-to-measure shirt costs £245 before discounting.

The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak's 'Eat Out to Help Out' scheme has been successful. EPA
The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak's 'Eat Out to Help Out' scheme has been successful. EPA

Much attention has been given to opening schools and how restaurants can get back to business – one successful scheme has seen the government pick up part of the bill for eating out from Monday to Wednesday.

How to engineer a workplace-led resumption of normal life? Surveys have shown that only half of workers are back in the office and just 49 per cent of 2,000 employees surveyed last week expressed confidence in returning. In France, meanwhile, a full 84 per cent of employees are back.

The cumulative effect cannot be good. As the weeks elapse, it is hard to see how a snapback recovery can come about. And if it does not, investors could stop putting forward money in anticipation of growth. Faith in maintaining workers on the payroll as a smart strategy to anticipate the upturn will seep from employers. The drip, drip of lay-offs will further inhibit the prospect of recovery.

If there is a miracle rebound, it will have to come from government-led spending. According to theory, that means a rebalancing of the economy.

Upheaval looms while Britain is marooned in a cocooned state.

Damien McElroy is the London bureau chief of The National

Generation Start-up: Awok company profile

Started: 2013

Founder: Ulugbek Yuldashev

Sector: e-commerce

Size: 600 plus

Stage: still in talks with VCs

Principal Investors: self-financed by founder

Living in...

This article is part of a guide on where to live in the UAE. Our reporters will profile some of the country’s most desirable districts, provide an estimate of rental prices and introduce you to some of the residents who call each area home.

RESULT

RS Leipzig 3 

Marcel Sabitzer 10', 21'

Emil Forsberg 87'

Tottenham 0

 

The Case For Trump

By Victor Davis Hanson
 

How tumultuous protests grew
  • A fuel tax protest by French drivers appealed to wider anti-government sentiment
  • Unlike previous French demonstrations there was no trade union or organised movement involved 
  • Demonstrators responded to online petitions and flooded squares to block traffic
  • At its height there were almost 300,000 on the streets in support
  • Named after the high visibility jackets that drivers must keep in cars 
  • Clashes soon turned violent as thousands fought with police at cordons
  • An estimated two dozen people lost eyes and many others were admitted to hospital 
Evacuations to France hit by controversy
  • Over 500 Gazans have been evacuated to France since November 2023
  • Evacuations were paused after a student already in France posted anti-Semitic content and was subsequently expelled to Qatar
  • The Foreign Ministry launched a review to determine how authorities failed to detect the posts before her entry
  • Artists and researchers fall under a programme called Pause that began in 2017
  • It has benefited more than 700 people from 44 countries, including Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Sudan
  • Since the start of the Gaza war, it has also included 45 Gazan beneficiaries
  • Unlike students, they are allowed to bring their families to France
The specs

Engine: 2.9-litre, V6 twin-turbo

Transmission: seven-speed PDK dual clutch automatic

Power: 375bhp

Torque: 520Nm

Price: Dh332,800

On sale: now

GAC GS8 Specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh149,900

Dubai Creek Open in numbers
  • The Dubai Creek Open is the 10th tournament on this year's Mena Tour
  • It is the first of five events before the season-concluding Mena Tour Championship
  • This week's field comprises 120 players, 21 of which are amateurs
  • 15 previous Mena Tour winners are competing at Dubai Creek Golf and Yacht Club  
MATCH INFO

Uefa Champioons League semi-final:

First leg: Liverpool 5 Roma 2

Second leg: Wednesday, May 2, Stadio Olimpico, Rome

TV: BeIN Sports, 10.45pm (UAE)

ASHES SCHEDULE

First Test
November 23-27 (The Gabba, Brisbane)
Second Test
December 2-6 (Adelaide Oval, Adelaide)
Third Test
December 14-18 (Waca Ground, Perth)
Fourth Test
December 26-30 (Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne)
Fifth Test
January 4-8, 2018 (Sydney Cricket Ground, Sydney)

MATCH INFO

Uefa Champions League semi-final, first leg

Barcelona v Liverpool, Wednesday, 11pm (UAE).

Second leg

Liverpool v Barcelona, Tuesday, May 7, 11pm

Games on BeIN Sports

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What sanctions would be reimposed?

Under ‘snapback’, measures imposed on Iran by the UN Security Council in six resolutions would be restored, including:

  • An arms embargo
  • A ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
  • A ban on launches and other activities with ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, as well as ballistic missile technology transfer and technical assistance
  • A targeted global asset freeze and travel ban on Iranian individuals and entities
  • Authorisation for countries to inspect Iran Air Cargo and Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines cargoes for banned goods
Farage on Muslim Brotherhood

Nigel Farage told Reform's annual conference that the party will proscribe the Muslim Brotherhood if he becomes Prime Minister.
"We will stop dangerous organisations with links to terrorism operating in our country," he said. "Quite why we've been so gutless about this – both Labour and Conservative – I don't know.
“All across the Middle East, countries have banned and proscribed the Muslim Brotherhood as a dangerous organisation. We will do the very same.”
It is 10 years since a ground-breaking report into the Muslim Brotherhood by Sir John Jenkins.
Among the former diplomat's findings was an assessment that “the use of extreme violence in the pursuit of the perfect Islamic society” has “never been institutionally disowned” by the movement.
The prime minister at the time, David Cameron, who commissioned the report, said membership or association with the Muslim Brotherhood was a "possible indicator of extremism" but it would not be banned.

UAE SQUAD

Ahmed Raza (Captain), Rohan Mustafa, Jonathan Figy, CP Rizwan, Junaid Siddique, Mohammad Usman, Basil Hameed, Zawar Farid, Vriitya Aravind (WK), Waheed Ahmed, Karthik Meiyappan, Zahoor Khan, Darius D'Silva, Chirag Suri

SPECS
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Other acts on the Jazz Garden bill

Sharrie Williams
The American singer is hugely respected in blues circles due to her passionate vocals and songwriting. Born and raised in Michigan, Williams began recording and touring as a teenage gospel singer. Her career took off with the blues band The Wiseguys. Such was the acclaim of their live shows that they toured throughout Europe and in Africa. As a solo artist, Williams has also collaborated with the likes of the late Dizzy Gillespie, Van Morrison and Mavis Staples.
Lin Rountree
An accomplished smooth jazz artist who blends his chilled approach with R‘n’B. Trained at the Duke Ellington School of the Arts in Washington, DC, Rountree formed his own band in 2004. He has also recorded with the likes of Kem, Dwele and Conya Doss. He comes to Dubai on the back of his new single Pass The Groove, from his forthcoming 2018 album Stronger Still, which may follow his five previous solo albums in cracking the top 10 of the US jazz charts.
Anita Williams
Dubai-based singer Anita Williams will open the night with a set of covers and swing, jazz and blues standards that made her an in-demand singer across the emirate. The Irish singer has been performing in Dubai since 2008 at venues such as MusicHall and Voda Bar. Her Jazz Garden appearance is career highlight as she will use the event to perform the original song Big Blue Eyes, the single from her debut solo album, due for release soon.

Silent Hill f

Publisher: Konami

Platforms: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PC

Rating: 4.5/5

Company Profile 

Founder: Omar Onsi

Launched: 2018

Employees: 35

Financing stage: Seed round ($12 million)

Investors: B&Y, Phoenician Funds, M1 Group, Shorooq Partners

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The most expensive investment mistake you will ever make

When is the best time to start saving in a pension? The answer is simple – at the earliest possible moment. The first pound, euro, dollar or dirham you invest is the most valuable, as it has so much longer to grow in value. If you start in your twenties, it could be invested for 40 years or more, which means you have decades for compound interest to work its magic.

“You get growth upon growth upon growth, followed by more growth. The earlier you start the process, the more it will all roll up,” says Chris Davies, chartered financial planner at The Fry Group in Dubai.

This table shows how much you would have in your pension at age 65, depending on when you start and how much you pay in (it assumes your investments grow 7 per cent a year after charges and you have no other savings).

Age

$250 a month

$500 a month

$1,000 a month

25

$640,829

$1,281,657

$2,563,315

35

$303,219

$606,439

$1,212,877

45

$131,596

$263,191

$526,382

55

$44,351

$88,702

$177,403

 

SPECS

Mini John Cooper Works Clubman and Mini John Cooper Works Countryman

Engine: two-litre 4-cylinder turbo

Transmission: nine-speed automatic

Power: 306hp

Torque: 450Nm

Price: JCW Clubman, Dh220,500; JCW Countryman, Dh225,500

Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets

White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogenChromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxideUltramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica contentOphiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on landOlivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour

The Uefa Awards winners

Uefa Men's Player of the Year: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)

Uefa Women's Player of the Year: Lucy Bronze (Lyon)

Best players of the 2018/19 Uefa Champions League

Goalkeeper: Alisson (Liverpool)

Defender: Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool)

Midfielder: Frenkie de Jong (Ajax)

Forward: Lionel Messi (Barcelona)

Uefa President's Award: Eric Cantona

Scotland's team:

15-Sean Maitland, 14-Darcy Graham, 13-Nick Grigg, 12-Sam Johnson, 11-Byron McGuigan, 10-Finn Russell, 9-Ali Price, 8-Magnus Bradbury, 7-Hamish Watson, 6-Sam Skinner, 5-Grant Gilchrist, 4-Ben Toolis, 3-Willem Nel, 2-Stuart McInally (captain), 1-Allan Dell

Replacements: 16-Fraser Brown, 17-Gordon Reid, 18-Simon Berghan, 19-Jonny Gray, 20-Josh Strauss, 21-Greig Laidlaw, 22-Adam Hastings, 23-Chris Harris

RESULTS

Cagliari 5-2 Fiorentina
Udinese 0-0 SPAL
Sampdoria 0-0 Atalanta
Lazio 4-2 Lecce
Parma 2-0 Roma
Juventus 1-0 AC Milan

The specs

Engine: 4.0-litre V8 twin-turbocharged and three electric motors

Power: Combined output 920hp

Torque: 730Nm at 4,000-7,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed dual-clutch automatic

Fuel consumption: 11.2L/100km

On sale: Now, deliveries expected later in 2025

Price: expected to start at Dh1,432,000

The Vile

Starring: Bdoor Mohammad, Jasem Alkharraz, Iman Tarik, Sarah Taibah

Director: Majid Al Ansari

Rating: 4/5

A timeline of the Historical Dictionary of the Arabic Language
  • 2018: Formal work begins
  • November 2021: First 17 volumes launched 
  • November 2022: Additional 19 volumes released
  • October 2023: Another 31 volumes released
  • November 2024: All 127 volumes completed
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The National Archives, Abu Dhabi

Founded over 50 years ago, the National Archives collects valuable historical material relating to the UAE, and is the oldest and richest archive relating to the Arabian Gulf.

Much of the material can be viewed on line at the Arabian Gulf Digital Archive - https://www.agda.ae/en

SPECS

Engine: Two-litre four-cylinder turbo
Power: 235hp
Torque: 350Nm
Transmission: Nine-speed automatic
Price: From Dh167,500 ($45,000)
On sale: Now

Mica

Director: Ismael Ferroukhi

Stars: Zakaria Inan, Sabrina Ouazani

3 stars

How to watch Ireland v Pakistan in UAE

When: The one-off Test starts on Friday, May 11
What time: Each day’s play is scheduled to start at 2pm UAE time.
TV: The match will be broadcast on OSN Sports Cricket HD. Subscribers to the channel can also stream the action live on OSN Play.