Less than two months before the November 3 US presidential election, anxiety is growing that it could generate the worst American political and constitutional crisis in at least a century. The nightmare scenarios are so obvious, they have prompted a raft of reports, articles and even books about what could go horribly wrong.
One potential outcome, although at present seemingly the least likely, would be relatively smooth and uncontroversial. Although few think he can prevail in the popular vote, if incumbent President Donald Trump secures a clear electoral college victory then the outcome and transition will be relatively seamless.
For all the Republican talk about them being a "radical left-wing party", in fact the Democrats remain much as they have been in recent decades: a coalition between a powerful, centre-left majority and much smaller far-left factions. That the most centrist candidate on offer, veteran moderate Joe Biden, decisively won the Democratic primaries eviscerates the claim that the party has veered wildly to the left.
If Mr Trump emerges, when all the votes have been duly counted, as the victor in the electoral college, Democrats will almost certainly accept the result – as Hillary Clinton did in 2016, though she won the popular vote by almost 3 million. Republican Richard Nixon in 1960 and, even more dramatically, Democrat Al Gore in 2000, are also part of the noble bipartisan tradition of accepting questionable and unpalatable outcomes to defend the system’s credibility.
US President Donald Trump, flanked by essential workers, speaks by video feed during the largely virtual 2020 Republican National Convention broadcast from Washington. Reuters
US. President Donald Trump, flanked by people who were held hostage abroad, speaks by video feed during the largely virtual 2020 Republican National Convention broadcast from Washington. Reuters
Kimberly Guilfoyle, the National Chair of the "Trump Victory Finance Committee" and girlfriend of Donald Trump Jr, delivers a pre-recorded speech to the largely virtual 2020 Republican National Convention from Washington. Reuters
Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks during the first day of the Republican convention at the Mellon auditorium in Washington, DC. AFP
Donald Trump Jr delivers a pre-recorded speech to the largely virtual 2020 Republican National Convention from Washington. Reuters
US Republican Senator for South Carolina Tim Scott speaks during the first day of the Republican convention at the Mellon auditorium in Washington, DC. AFP
Mark and Patricia McCloskey speak during the Republican National Convention seen on a laptop computer in Tiskilwa, Illinois, US. Bloomberg
Representative Jim Jordan, a Republican from Ohio, speaks during the Republican National Convention seen on a laptop computer in Tiskilwa, Illinois, US. Bloomberg
Donald Trump Jr, executive vice president of development and acquisitions for Trump Organisation, left, gives a fist bump to girlfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle, President Donald Trump campaign aide, after speaking during the Republican National Convention at the Andrew W Mellon Auditorium in Washington, DC. Bloomberg
House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, a Republican from Louisiana, speaks during the Republican National Convention seen on a laptop computer in Tiskilwa, Illinois, US. Bloomberg
New York Archbishop Timothy Dolan gives the invocation from New York, during the first night of the Republican National Convention. AP
Republicans castigate Democrats as extremists, but there is no doubt which party has been captured by an extreme fringe, increasingly including QAnon conspiracy theorists.
Four years ago, Mr Trump refused to promise to accept the results, which he insisted would be “rigged", unless he won. When he did, all sides accepted it.
This year he has again refused to commit to accepting the outcome if he doesn’t win. To the contrary, he has been vehemently insisting, entirely without evidence or any factual basis, that if he loses it can only be the result of fraud.
He has been especially fixated on the supposed dangers of voting by mail, even though that has been common since the Second World War and it is his own usual personal practice. He groundlessly insists that it is bound to be the subject of enormous fraud.
But given that mail voting leaves a physical paper trail – as opposed to the alarmingly hackable electronic-only voting equipment in some states, while mail ballots might be more susceptible to fraud at a small and local level than some other methods – at a national level they will clearly be relatively secure and confirmable.
If Mr Biden wins a clear victory, whether broad or narrow, it has become increasingly difficult to imagine Mr Trump accepting that. In addition to the psychological and political factors, the presidency may be the only thing immunising him from a wide range of potential criminal charges. His incentive to stop at nothing to stay in office is enormous.
November 3 will be a very unusual – and dangerous – election night.
Americans typically expect to learn the winner before dawn. That is unlikely in this case, given the probable amount of mail voting because of the coronavirus pandemic. The concomitant potential for profound mischief and confusion is huge.
Surveys suggest that Democrats will be twice as likely to vote by mail as Republicans. And many states do not allow mailed votes to be tabulated before election day. So, it is likely that the President will appear to register an overwhelming, almost landslide, victory on the night of November 3, which could then completely collapse as mailed voting is counted in key swing states in the subsequent days.
One obvious nightmare scenario is that, if this happens, Mr Trump might declare victory and demand all mailed ballots be discounted and he be confirmed the winner, as he has done in several other recent elections involving his political allies.
Former Vice President Joe Biden, Democratic presidential nominee, left, and Senator Kamala Harris, Democratic vice presidential nominee, wear protective masks while holding hands outside the Chase Center during the Democratic National Convention in Wilmington, Delaware, USA. Bloomberg
Joe Biden embraces his wife Dr. Jill Biden after delivering his acceptance speech. AFP
Joe Biden hugs his wife Jill Biden during the fourth day of the Democratic National Convention. AP Photo
Joe Biden and his wife Jill are pictured after he accepted the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. Reuters
Sen. Kamala Harris looks at her husband Doug Emhoff on an outdoor stage. AP Photo
Joe Biden delivers his acceptance speech. AFP
Joe Biden accepts the Democratic Party nomination for US president. AFP
Attendees watch from their vehicles as Joe Biden speaks after accepting the nomination during a drive-in watch party for the Democratic National Convention. Pittsburgh Post-Gazette via AP
A supporter watches Joe Biden's acceptance speech from a parking lot outside Chase Center. AFP
A Joe Biden supporter places signs on his car during a drive-in DNC watch event in Houston, Texas. AFP
Joe Biden and Jill watch fireworks outside the Chase Center. AFP
Joe Biden and Jill Biden stand on stage after he accepted the Democratic Party nomination for US president. AFP
Even if Mr Biden secures a strong victory, the timing of vote tabulations alone could produce chaos. And the profoundly litigious Mr Trump is almost certain to take everything to court, endlessly. If the results are close, contested, and still being litigated, it is even possible that, on January 20, 2021, two competing presidents, both claiming victory, could be sworn-in by different judges in alternate ceremonies.
It is no longer fanciful to imagine such a catastrophic scenario – or others involving the presidency being decided by the Supreme Court or the House of Representatives, both of which have happened before.
If Mr Biden's victory is clear early on, Mr Trump may be so isolated that he will be forced from office. But Republican leaders seem unconditionally committed to his political survival.
There is also a real potential for violence. Mr Trump has consistently promoted a vigilante culture. His rhetoric during the unrest in some US cities this summer felt like a test run for violent rage if he is defeated. Many Americans are bracing for tumult. The prospect of an American “colour revolution", perhaps also previewed this summer, to enforce the election results, is no longer absurd.
The political system itself appears antiquated and dysfunctional. While it was designed for institutional balance, partisanship has become paramount, as Mr Trump's impeachment proceedings, with no witnesses and a predetermined acquittal, demonstrated.
Federal officers use chemical irritants and crowd control munitions to disperse Black Lives Matter protesters in Portland. AP
Federal officers use chemical irritants and crowd control munitions to disperse Black Lives Matter protesters in Portland. AP
Federal officers disperse Black Lives Matter protesters in Portland. AP
Federal officers use chemical irritants and crowd control munitions to disperse Black Lives Matter protesters in Portland. AP
Federal officers use chemical irritants and crowd control munitions to disperse Black Lives Matter protesters in Portland. AP
Federal officers use chemical irritants and crowd control munitions to disperse Black Lives Matter protesters in Portland. AP
Federal officers disperse Black Lives Matter protesters in Portland. AP
Federal officers use chemical irritants and crowd control munitions to disperse Black Lives Matter protesters in Portland. AP
Structures created for a very different time no longer function as intended, if at all. The electoral college and the Senate are now mainly tools of a protracted, but unsustainable, minority rule. In the House and at the state level, partisan gerrymandering makes a mockery of democracy. The once rarely used Senate filibuster has become a standard tool of gridlock and veto by empowered minorities.
Worse, the Trump era has demonstrated how few meaningful non-partisan institutional checks thwart a brazen and rapacious President.
The test coming in November will be decisive for American democracy. Even if the country passes it, there will be an enormous task not only repairing the damage, but in correcting the fatal flaws in the US political system that have been so terrifyingly exposed.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute and a US affairs columnist for The National
A comparison of sending Dh20,000 from the UAE using two different routes at the same time - the first direct from a UAE bank to a bank in Germany, and the second from the same UAE bank via an online platform to Germany - found key differences in cost and speed. The transfers were both initiated on January 30.
Route 1: bank transfer
The UAE bank charged Dh152.25 for the Dh20,000 transfer. On top of that, their exchange rate margin added a difference of around Dh415, compared with the mid-market rate.
Total cost: Dh567.25 - around 2.9 per cent of the total amount
Total received: €4,670.30
Route 2: online platform
The UAE bank’s charge for sending Dh20,000 to a UK dirham-denominated account was Dh2.10. The exchange rate margin cost was Dh60, plus a Dh12 fee.
Total cost: Dh74.10, around 0.4 per cent of the transaction
Total received: €4,756
The UAE bank transfer was far quicker – around two to three working days, while the online platform took around four to five days, but was considerably cheaper. In the online platform transfer, the funds were also exposed to currency risk during the period it took for them to arrive.
White hydrogen: Naturally occurring hydrogen Chromite: Hard, metallic mineral containing iron oxide and chromium oxide Ultramafic rocks: Dark-coloured rocks rich in magnesium or iron with very low silica content Ophiolite: A section of the earth’s crust, which is oceanic in nature that has since been uplifted and exposed on land Olivine: A commonly occurring magnesium iron silicate mineral that derives its name for its olive-green yellow-green colour
Who's who in Yemen conflict
Houthis: Iran-backed rebels who occupy Sanaa and run unrecognised government
Yemeni government: Exiled government in Aden led by eight-member Presidential Leadership Council
Southern Transitional Council: Faction in Yemeni government that seeks autonomy for the south
Habrish 'rebels': Tribal-backed forces feuding with STC over control of oil in government territory
RESULTS
5pm: Maiden (PA) Dh80,000 2,200m
Winner: Arjan, Fabrice Veron (jockey), Eric Lemartinel (trainer).
6pm: Al Ruwais Group 3 (PA) Dh300,000 1,200m
Winner: RB Lam Tara, Fabrice Veron, Eric Lemartinal.
6.30pm: Shadwell Gold Cup Prestige Dh125,000 1,600m
Winner: AF Sanad, Bernardo Pinheiro, Khalifa Al Neyadi.
7pm: Shadwell Farm Stallions Handicap (PA) Dh70,000 1,600m
Winner: Jawal Al Reef, Patrick Cosgrave, Abdallah Al Hammadi.
7.30pm: Maiden (TB) Dh80,000 1,600m
Winner: Dubai Canal, Harry Bentley, Satish Seemar.
Expert advice
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
- At 9.16pm, three suicide attackers killed one person outside the Atade de France during a foootball match between France and Germany - At 9.25pm, three attackers opened fire on restaurants and cafes over 20 minutes, killing 39 people - Shortly after 9.40pm, three other attackers launched a three-hour raid on the Bataclan, in which 1,500 people had gathered to watch a rock concert. In total, 90 people were killed - Salah Abdeslam, the only survivor of the terrorists, did not directly participate in the attacks, thought to be due to a technical glitch in his suicide vest - He fled to Belgium and was involved in attacks on Brussels in March 2016. He is serving a life sentence in France
