South Korean President Moon Jae-In, right, and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, left, at the G20 summit in June in Osaka, Japan. Kim Kyung-Hoon / Getty
South Korean President Moon Jae-In, right, and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, left, at the G20 summit in June in Osaka, Japan. Kim Kyung-Hoon / Getty
South Korean President Moon Jae-In, right, and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, left, at the G20 summit in June in Osaka, Japan. Kim Kyung-Hoon / Getty
On Friday, the president’s office in Seoul reversed a decision to end an intelligence-sharing pact with Japan, just hours before the deal was due to expire.
South Korea had been threatening to withdraw from the 2016 General Security of Military Information Agreement, which ensures intelligence-sharing with Japan, because of a burgeoning trade dispute. The pact is key to military co-operation between South Korea, Japan and the US in dealing with North Korea so under pressure from Washington, Seoul also dropped a formal complaint about Japanese trade restrictions at the World Trade Organisation – at least for now.
Continued tensions, some of which date back to the brutal Japanese occupation of Korea before and during the Second World War, are likely and a trade war remains possible. Japan’s increasing uncertainty about US reliability and anxiety about North Korea are prompting new levels of re-armament and regional assertion that can only feed South Korean suspicions.
However, Mr Moon wisely placed national imperatives above his political interests and jingoistic sentiment in South Korea to drop the trade complaint, salvage the intelligence agreement and preserve the three-way alliance with the US.
Rather than building on this significant achievement, US President Donald Trump is demanding that Seoul pay vastly more to support the American military presence in its country. Two years ago, South Korea agreed to pay just under $1 billion annually, about 20 per cent of the US cost.
This year Mr Trump is demanding more than five times that. This isn't just belligerent or unreasonable. It seems intentionally designed to be practically and – especially – politically impossible.
This is an unprecedented crisis in relations with South Korea
Indeed, under the rubric of "America First", the Trump administration has pioneered a radical departure in US foreign policy from that of all its Democratic and Republican predecessors since the Second World War. This administration’s approach to international relations breaks with tradition by showing a willingness to pander to autocratic adversaries while taking a harsh, even bullying attitude towards traditional, democratic allies.
The downsides of both approaches seem to be coalescing in the Korean Peninsula.
This is an unprecedented crisis in relations with South Korea. Mr Trump’s vacillation between threats and sentimental overtures towards North Korea could be catastrophic.
Meanwhile the crisis with South Korea is particularly perplexing. South Korean President Moon Jae-in shares Mr Trump's enthusiasm for improved relations with North Korea and he has showered effusive praise on the US president for facilitating greatly increased dialogue between Washington and Seoul with Pyongyang.
Moreover, it was the combined efforts of Mr Moon and Mr Trump that led to Friday’s announcement, averting a deterioration in relations between Seoul and Tokyo, a crucial element in the tripartite alliance.
But no matter how much he treasures the alliance with Washington, Mr Moon cannot accede to such a radical increase in costs, especially when South Korea has just paid 90 per cent of the $11 billion price of a new US military base at its largest overseas installation, Camp Humphreys.
To rub salt in the wound, the US delegation summarily walked out of the last set of negotiations, apparently in a theatrical gesture to convey its pique at Seoul balking at what looks and feels like a shakedown.
Japan's increasing uncertainty about US reliability and anxiety about North Korea are prompting new levels of re-armament and regional assertion that can only feed South Korean suspicions
Underlying all of this, of course, is Mr Trump's long history of insisting that US troops ought to be entirely withdrawn from South Korea. That is the most obvious explanation for why he might be making impossible demands on what is otherwise regarded as a crucial and trusted ally. Similarly extortionate demands for vastly increased funding of overseas US forces are being made of Japan, among others.
South Korea is so alarmed by all this that earlier this month, it signed a far-reaching defence agreement with China, an act of considerable desperation.
The main beneficiary of any US military drawdown, let alone withdrawal, from South Korea – and even the tensions between Seoul and both Washington and Tokyo – is, of course, North Korea. The raison d'etre of the Pyongyang regime is the expulsion of US forces from the Korean Peninsula and its reunification under the Kim dynasty.
Yet if South Korea is one of the prime examples of how Mr Trump's bullying approach with traditional allies is leading to disaster, his love-hate relationship with Kim Jong-un is a textbook illustration of the pitfalls of his equally unorthodox approach to adversaries.
Mr Trump likes to claim that, had he not been elected in 2016, the US would have engaged in nuclear warfare with North Korea. That is hyperbole but he did inherit a tense situation from his predecessor Barack Obama, who pointedly told him that Pyongyang would be his biggest foreign policy problem.
Mr Trump’s response to the ongoing conundrum of North Korea's nuclear weapons and missile development and testing was to threaten "fire and fury such as the world has never seen". But then he initiated an affectionate dialogue with Mr Kim, even saying more than once that the two had "fallen in love". Melodramatic but ineffectual summits took place in Singapore, Vietnam and the Demilitarised Zone between the two Koreas and the US.
All Mr Trump has been able to extract from Mr Kim is some human remains, possibly of US soldiers killed in the Korean War, and a few hostages. There has been no agreement by North Korea for nuclear disarmament and not even an inventory of its nuclear assets.
Mr Kim is increasingly showing every indication of running out of patience waiting for sanctions relief. North Korea recently tested new rockets and has shown signs of activity at several nuclear weapons centres. It appears Mr Kim is ready to return to a policy of provocations if he remains frustrated and he does seem to be in a position to squeeze Mr Trump, his “beautiful letters” notwithstanding.
Bullying allies for extortion creates senseless crises. Alternately threatening and cajoling adversaries, and relying on personality and made-for-television photo opportunities does nothing to extract concessions from hostile dictators.
Both burden-sharing negotiations with the South and nuclear talks with the North expire on December 31. Mr Trump doesn't seem to have an alternative plan in either case.
The ineffectiveness of trying to coerce friends while seducing enemies could backfire in both halves of the Korean Peninsula.
Hussein Ibish is a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
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How to apply for a drone permit
Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
Submit their request
What are the regulations?
Fly it within visual line of sight
Never over populated areas
Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
Should have a live feed of the drone flight
Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
Know your Camel lingo
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless