Over the past few days, two of the forums tasked with ending the Syrian war have coalesced their efforts around the writing of a new constitution for the nation.
First, over the weekend, came a push from the UN special envoy for Syria, Staffan de Mistura, who will step down next month after four years in the job. Speaking to the UN Security Council, he seemed to pin his hopes on a new constitution being created but said Damascus was blocking the creation of a drafting committee. At last month's UN General Assembly, Syrian foreign minister Walid Al Muallem went so far as to warn against external intervention in the forming of a committee.
Then, on Saturday, Turkey and Russia pulled off quite a remarkable coup, getting the leaders of Germany and France to go to Istanbul and essentially endorse a plan that the Russians had first manufactured, issuing a communique calling for a drafting committee to be established before the end of the year.
They proposed this despite knowing – because Mr De Mistura had told them just hours before – that the Assad regime was stalling on the formation of the committee and refusing to accept the UN's authority in appointing members to the committee.
Cynical observers might wonder if the renewed push for the committee to be formed in the next few weeks is simply a way of allowing Mr De Mistura to leave with some diplomatic dignity at the end of November.
In any case, the idea of a new Syrian constitution is a mere diplomatic fig leaf, concocted to spare the blushes of western powers for having been comprehensively outmanoeuvred by Russia and the Syrian regime. A new constitution will not, as the leaders declared, pave the way for elections and an end to the war. The Assad regime will not allow a genuinely new constitution. And even if there was a new constitution, it would not solve the issues it is meant to address.
The sudden focus on this new constitution is puzzling, given that, from the moment it was proposed in January, it has created divisions among Syria's opposition and looked extremely unlikely to ever happen.
Recall that the proposal for a 150-member committee made up of both government and opposition figures to rewrite the constitution and pave the way for elections was first proposed at a Russian-backed conference in the Black Sea resort of Sochi earlier this year, at a time when Russian fighter jets were dropping bombs in support of the Assad regime.
Mr De Mistura inexplicably took the idea back under the auspices of the UN-led Geneva process, despite leading opposition figures saying at the time that it was unworkable and the wrong moment to try it.
The opposition argued at the time that what was needed was a transitional government to prove that there would be a move away from the Assad regime. Worse, they pointed out, seeking to rewrite the constitution in Syria, at a time when war was still ongoing and the regime was fighting for its survival, was hardly conducive to a genuinely impartial process.
Still, the idea has not gone away and Mr De Mistura last week asked Russia and Turkey to push the regime to stop blocking the establishment of the committee, so that the process of writing a constitution – nearly a year after it was first proposed – can actually begin.
But there will be no new constitution. That much ought to have been clear to a seasoned diplomat. Instead, the endless debate with the regime is a ruse to delay and ultimately deny the committee any power.
The idea is that one third of the seats on the committee will go to the regime, a third to the opposition and a further third to independents, some of whom would be proposed by the UN. But the regime has consistently objected to any but the most anodyne of opposition members and now refuses to allow the UN to even propose independents.
In any case, a new constitution, if one were ever drafted, would not solve the two issues it is meant to address – even aside from the fact that the lack of Arab consensus on a new course for Syria or a seat at the negotiating table in these discussions remains a sticking point, as Ahmed Aboul Gheit, secretary-general of the League of Arab States, said on the sidelines of the Manama Dialogue.
But, setting aside that hurdle, the regime will never allow genuine opposition any representation, which means that the grievances that sparked the uprising will remain, and there will be no justice for those killed, maimed, dispossessed or forcibly removed from their homes. There will be no truth about what happened to the tens of thousands who have disappeared after being detained by the regime, and no reconciliation among the communities affected.
Nor would a new constitution solve the refugee crisis. One of the reasons why Germany and France have been persuaded to back the creation of a new constitution is because they believe it would influence the decision of Syrian refugees to return home.
Yet with Bashar Al Assad remaining in place, it is unlikely many would feel safe enough to go home. I've argued previously that the most likely outcome is for Russia to persuade the regime to accept fresh elections, which would be convincingly “won” by the regime, thereby offering a route back to international respectability.
But on the ground, this would be the same old Assad regime – the one that initially shot peaceful protesters, that tortured men and women to death and that now still leads to the disappearance of refugees who have returned home – meaning few of those Syrians who felt threatened enough to leave would feel safe to go back.
The truth is that attempts to end the conflict have not gone well for the West and establishing peace is going just as badly. There is little that can be done now to stop Mr Al Assad remaining as president of Syria indefinitely, and European powers and Turkey know it. A new constitution is merely a means of repackaging the inevitable, with some kind of imprint of them playing a part in negotiations. On the ground, nothing will change and for Syrians, any new constitution will not be worth the paper it is printed on.
Key figures in the life of the fort
Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.
Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.
Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.
Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.
Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.
Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.
Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.
Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Kumulus Water
Started: 2021
Founders: Iheb Triki and Mohamed Ali Abid
Based: Tunisia
Sector: Water technology
Number of staff: 22
Investment raised: $4 million
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING
Director: Christopher McQuarrie
Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg
Rating: 4/5
Greatest of All Time
Starring: Vijay, Sneha, Prashanth, Prabhu Deva, Mohan
Killing of Qassem Suleimani
Red Joan
Director: Trevor Nunn
Starring: Judi Dench, Sophie Cookson, Tereza Srbova
Rating: 3/5 stars
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Our legal columnist
Name: Yousef Al Bahar
Advocate at Al Bahar & Associate Advocates and Legal Consultants, established in 1994
Education: Mr Al Bahar was born in 1979 and graduated in 2008 from the Judicial Institute. He took after his father, who was one of the first Emirati lawyers
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House-hunting
Top 10 locations for inquiries from US house hunters, according to Rightmove
- Edinburgh, Scotland
- Westminster, London
- Camden, London
- Glasgow, Scotland
- Islington, London
- Kensington and Chelsea, London
- Highlands, Scotland
- Argyll and Bute, Scotland
- Fife, Scotland
- Tower Hamlets, London
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Match info
Uefa Champions League Group H
Manchester United v Young Boys, Tuesday, midnight (UAE)
The specs: Fenyr SuperSport
Price, base: Dh5.1 million
Engine: 3.8-litre twin-turbo flat-six
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 800hp @ 7,100pm
Torque: 980Nm @ 4,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 13.5L / 100km
Know before you go
- Jebel Akhdar is a two-hour drive from Muscat airport or a six-hour drive from Dubai. It’s impossible to visit by car unless you have a 4x4. Phone ahead to the hotel to arrange a transfer.
- If you’re driving, make sure your insurance covers Oman.
- By air: Budget airlines Air Arabia, Flydubai and SalamAir offer direct routes to Muscat from the UAE.
- Tourists from the Emirates (UAE nationals not included) must apply for an Omani visa online before arrival at evisa.rop.gov.om. The process typically takes several days.
- Flash floods are probable due to the terrain and a lack of drainage. Always check the weather before venturing into any canyons or other remote areas and identify a plan of escape that includes high ground, shelter and parking where your car won’t be overtaken by sudden downpours.
Cultural fiesta
What: The Al Burda Festival
When: November 14 (from 10am)
Where: Warehouse421, Abu Dhabi
The Al Burda Festival is a celebration of Islamic art and culture, featuring talks, performances and exhibitions. Organised by the Ministry of Culture and Knowledge Development, this one-day event opens with a session on the future of Islamic art. With this in mind, it is followed by a number of workshops and “masterclass” sessions in everything from calligraphy and typography to geometry and the origins of Islamic design. There will also be discussions on subjects including ‘Who is the Audience for Islamic Art?’ and ‘New Markets for Islamic Design.’ A live performance from Kuwaiti guitarist Yousif Yaseen should be one of the highlights of the day.
Company%20profile
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Business Insights
- As per the document, there are six filing options, including choosing to report on a realisation basis and transitional rules for pre-tax period gains or losses.
- SMEs with revenue below Dh3 million per annum can opt for transitional relief until 2026, treating them as having no taxable income.
- Larger entities have specific provisions for asset and liability movements, business restructuring, and handling foreign permanent establishments.
THE SPECS
Engine: 4.4-litre V8
Transmission: Automatic
Power: 530bhp
Torque: 750Nm
Price: Dh535,000
On sale: Now
How to register as a donor
1) Organ donors can register on the Hayat app, run by the Ministry of Health and Prevention
2) There are about 11,000 patients in the country in need of organ transplants
3) People must be over 21. Emiratis and residents can register.
4) The campaign uses the hashtag #donate_hope