Last week's attack on Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, which the regime blames Israel for carrying out, has cast a cloud over the fate of the ongoing nuclear negotiations in Vienna. The talks, being held with the purpose of reviving the 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and the world's major powers, could end either in a peaceful breakthrough or military confrontation.
Tehran's response so far – including from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – suggests that its need for international sanctions to be lifted is of higher priority than its temptation to retaliate. This is not the first time Iran has swallowed its pride and delayed its own calls for a proportionate response, as was evidenced following the US assassination of Qassem Suleimani, one of its military commanders, last year. However, it isn't just the negotiations to revive the nuclear deal – called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA – that eventually hangs in the balance. The nature, execution and timing of the retaliation for the Natanz attack could eventually shape Iran's presidential election in June and the question of war and peace in the region in the coming months.
Israel is suspected for attacking the Natanz facility allegedly because it seeks to curtail Iran's nuclear weapons programme. And if Iran does decide to take "revenge" on a country it considers to be its ideological foe, the question will be if such a retaliation will be direct, or whether it will implicate other countries through its proxies, led by Hezbollah in Lebanon?
Read More from Raghida Dergham
If the Iranian regime sees the Vienna talks as more likely to further its interests – especially if it backed down from retaliation – then the possibility of a grand bargain remains, despite the high level of tensions between both regional and international powers.
The resumption of talks amid secrecy, in the aftermath of the Natanz attack, carries implications. One is that Washington-Tehran dialogue, even if indirect, has not stopped despite Iranian suspicions that the Biden administration had been briefed about the alleged Israeli attack on the enrichment facility before it was carried out.
For both sides, the priority is to agree the terms for reviving the JCPOA. Naturally, the posturing taking place necessitates raising the ceiling and a game of tug of war. This is given the importance assigned to the goal of restricting Iran’s nuclear capabilities, in return for lifting crippling economic sanctions that have paralysed the regime’s agenda. Today, the two sides are talking of “synchronising” the two issues, instead of squabbling over who goes first.
The rhythm and substance of the nuclear talks could determine which way Mr Khamenei will go. He may either order the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to carry out retaliation strikes in the region, which could amount to a setback for the so-called moderates in the election. Alternatively, he may keep the political heat on low, thereby giving the moderates a fighting chance in the polls, the purpose of which would be to use them – should they succeed in the election – as a much-needed facade while dealing with the international community in the future. This may be immaterial in the grand scheme of things, given that it is the IRGC that will continue to shape Iran’s foreign policy.
If given the go-ahead to strike, the IRGC could consider several options, including stepping up attacks on Israeli vessels, carrying out cyberattacks on its defence systems, conducting operations through Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, which shares a border with Israel, and targeting its embassies around the world.
With the Natanz attack seen as an act of aggression, Tehran has declared its intention to raise the level of uranium enrichment from 20 to 60 and even 90 per cent needed for a bomb, if the negotiations fail. This would give Iran nuclear capabilities ready to be activated militarily. If these threats materialise, the spectre of war could also return and engender a military confrontation. In such a scenario, Israel will not be alone, with the Biden administration obligated to provide support.
Alternatively, if Tehran decides to wage a limited proxy war – including by using Lebanon as a pawn – none of the global powers will rush in to salvage the situation. Lebanon, after all, is not a priority for them.
The Natanz attack has got some JCPOA signatories worried.
It seems to have limited Russia’s leverage over Iran, its ally. For a while, Moscow has sought to contain Israel-Iran tensions. But at this juncture, it does not want to complicate its relations with Tehran and may end up accommodating whatever decision the latter adopts. At the same time, reviving JCPOA is also in Russia’s interests and Moscow is trying to convince Tehran not to increase uranium enrichment. Iran’s other ally, China, has also called for talks to continue, as have the Europeans.
Tehran's response so far suggests its need for sanctions to be lifted is of higher priority than its temptation to retaliate
Complicating the Vienna talks are the fraying relations between some signatories.
The Biden administration's equation with Kremlin, in particular, is deteriorating rapidly. Mutual sanctions and the expulsion of diplomats have raised tensions, despite the leaders of the two countries speaking to each other – and despite Washington's call for a US-Russia summit in June or July. Washington imposed sanctions on Moscow in response to its alleged meddling in the 2020 US presidential election and its suspected role in major cyberattacks inside that country.
Moscow views sanctions on Russian treasury bonds as a declaration of economic war, given how much they could exacerbate the country's domestic debt, curtail its access to foreign currency, and complicate financial transactions with Europe, Canada and Japan. A furious Kremlin will, therefore, consider its own series of retaliations, which could include weapon sales to Iran in contravention of more US sanctions. It has also sent troops to its border with Ukraine, a development that has put Nato, a security alliance the US is an integral part of, on alert.
Amid all this drama, really, who can tell with absolute certainty what will happen in Vienna.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
The biog
Name: Salvador Toriano Jr
Age: 59
From: Laguna, The Philippines
Favourite dish: Seabass or Fish and Chips
Hobbies: When he’s not in the restaurant, he still likes to cook, along with walking and meeting up with friends.
Conflict, drought, famine
Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.
Band Aid
Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.
THE%20JERSEYS
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ERed%20Jersey%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EGeneral%20Classification%2C%20sponsored%20by%20Fatima%20bint%20Mubarak%20Ladies%20Academy%3A%20Worn%20daily%2C%20starting%20from%20Stage%202%2C%20by%20the%20leader%20of%20the%20General%20Classification.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EGreen%20Jersey%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EPoints%20Classification%2C%20sponsored%20by%20Bike%20Abu%20Dhabi%3A%20Worn%20daily%2C%20starting%20from%20Stage%202%2C%20by%20the%20fastest%20sprinter.%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EWhite%20Jersey%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EYoung%20Rider%20Classification%2C%20sponsored%20by%20Abu%20Dhabi%20360%3A%20Worn%20daily%2C%20starting%20from%20Stage%202%2C%20by%20the%20best%20young%20rider%20(U25).%0D%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EBlack%20Jersey%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EIntermediate%20Sprint%20Classification%2C%20sponsored%20by%20Experience%20Abu%20Dhabi%3A%20Worn%20daily%2C%20starting%20from%20Stage%202%2C%20by%20the%20rider%20who%20has%20gained%20most%20Intermediate%20sprint%20points.%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
What can victims do?
Always use only regulated platforms
Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion
Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)
Report to local authorities
Warn others to prevent further harm
Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence
KEY%20DATES%20IN%20AMAZON'S%20HISTORY
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJuly%205%2C%201994%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Jeff%20Bezos%20founds%20Cadabra%20Inc%2C%20which%20would%20later%20be%20renamed%20to%20Amazon.com%2C%20because%20his%20lawyer%20misheard%20the%20name%20as%20'cadaver'.%20In%20its%20earliest%20days%2C%20the%20bookstore%20operated%20out%20of%20a%20rented%20garage%20in%20Bellevue%2C%20Washington%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJuly%2016%2C%201995%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20formally%20opens%20as%20an%20online%20bookseller.%20%3Cem%3EFluid%20Concepts%20and%20Creative%20Analogies%3A%20Computer%20Models%20of%20the%20Fundamental%20Mechanisms%20of%20Thought%3C%2Fem%3E%20becomes%20the%20first%20item%20sold%20on%20Amazon%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E1997%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20goes%20public%20at%20%2418%20a%20share%2C%20which%20has%20grown%20about%201%2C000%20per%20cent%20at%20present.%20Its%20highest%20closing%20price%20was%20%24197.85%20on%20June%2027%2C%202024%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E1998%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20acquires%20IMDb%2C%20its%20first%20major%20acquisition.%20It%20also%20starts%20selling%20CDs%20and%20DVDs%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2000%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20Marketplace%20opens%2C%20allowing%20people%20to%20sell%20items%20on%20the%20website%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2002%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20forms%20what%20would%20become%20Amazon%20Web%20Services%2C%20opening%20the%20Amazon.com%20platform%20to%20all%20developers.%20The%20cloud%20unit%20would%20follow%20in%202006%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2003%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20turns%20in%20an%20annual%20profit%20of%20%2475%20million%2C%20the%20first%20time%20it%20ended%20a%20year%20in%20the%20black%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2005%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20Prime%20is%20introduced%2C%20its%20first-ever%20subscription%20service%20that%20offered%20US%20customers%20free%20two-day%20shipping%20for%20%2479%20a%20year%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2006%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20Unbox%20is%20unveiled%2C%20the%20company's%20video%20service%20that%20would%20later%20morph%20into%20Amazon%20Instant%20Video%20and%2C%20ultimately%2C%20Amazon%20Video%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2007%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon's%20first%20hardware%20product%2C%20the%20Kindle%20e-reader%2C%20is%20introduced%3B%20the%20Fire%20TV%20and%20Fire%20Phone%20would%20come%20in%202014.%20Grocery%20service%20Amazon%20Fresh%20is%20also%20started%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2009%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20introduces%20Amazon%20Basics%2C%20its%20in-house%20label%20for%20a%20variety%20of%20products%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2010%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20foundations%20for%20Amazon%20Studios%20were%20laid.%20Its%20first%20original%20streaming%20content%20debuted%20in%202013%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2011%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20Amazon%20Appstore%20for%20Google's%20Android%20is%20launched.%20It%20is%20still%20unavailable%20on%20Apple's%20iOS%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2014%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20The%20Amazon%20Echo%20is%20launched%2C%20a%20speaker%20that%20acts%20as%20a%20personal%20digital%20assistant%20powered%20by%20Alexa%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2017%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon%20acquires%20Whole%20Foods%20for%20%2413.7%20billion%2C%20its%20biggest%20acquisition%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3E2018%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%20Amazon's%20market%20cap%20briefly%20crosses%20the%20%241%20trillion%20mark%2C%20making%20it%2C%20at%20the%20time%2C%20only%20the%20third%20company%20to%20achieve%20that%20milestone%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
GULF MEN'S LEAGUE
Pool A Dubai Hurricanes, Bahrain, Dubai Exiles, Dubai Tigers 2
Pool B Abu Dhabi Harlequins, Jebel Ali Dragons, Dubai Knights Eagles, Dubai Tigers
Opening fixtures
Thursday, December 5
6.40pm, Pitch 8, Abu Dhabi Harlequins v Dubai Knights Eagles
7pm, Pitch 2, Jebel Ali Dragons v Dubai Tigers
7pm, Pitch 4, Dubai Hurricanes v Dubai Exiles
7pm, Pitch 5, Bahrain v Dubai Eagles 2
Recent winners
2018 Dubai Hurricanes
2017 Dubai Exiles
2016 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2015 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
2014 Abu Dhabi Harlequins
Director: Laxman Utekar
Cast: Vicky Kaushal, Akshaye Khanna, Diana Penty, Vineet Kumar Singh, Rashmika Mandanna
Rating: 1/5
RESULTS
%3Cp%3E5pm%3A%20Wathba%20Stallions%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh70%2C000%20(Turf)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20RB%20Sarab%2C%20Allaia%20Tiar%20(jockey)%2C%20Khalifa%20Al%20Neyadi%20(trainer)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E5.30pm%3A%20Mamsha%20Alkhair%20%E2%80%93%20Handicap%20(PA)%20Dh80%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Mutaqadim%2C%20Ray%20Dawson%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al%20Hadhrami%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E6pm%3A%20Emirates%20Fillies%20Classic%20%E2%80%93%20Prestige%20(PA)%20Dh100%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Almotajalliah%2C%20Ray%20Dawson%2C%20Ibrahim%20Al%20Hadhrami%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E6.30pm%3A%20Emirates%20Colts%20Classic%20%E2%80%93%20Prestige%20(PA)%20Dh100%2C000%20(T)%201%2C600m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Fadwaan%2C%20Antonio%20Fresu%2C%20Ahmed%20Al%20Mehairbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7pm%3A%20The%20President%E2%80%99s%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Group%201%20(PA)%20Dh2%2C500%2C000%20(T)%202%2C200m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Mujeeb%2C%20Richard%20Mullen%2C%20Salem%20Al%20Ketbi%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E7.30pm%3A%20The%20President%E2%80%99s%20Cup%20%E2%80%93%20Listed%20(TB)%20Dh380%2C000%20(T)%201%2C400m%3Cbr%3EWinner%3A%20Western%20Writer%2C%20Richard%20Mullen%2C%20Bhupat%20Seemar%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Scoreline
Al Wasl 1 (Caio Canedo 90 1')
Al Ain 2 (Ismail Ahmed 3', Marcus Berg 50')
Red cards: Ismail Ahmed (Al Ain) 77'
UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
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Kabir Singh
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