Critics say that investors should avoid Bitcoin all together, with impressive gains also found in traditional investments. Reuters
Critics say that investors should avoid Bitcoin all together, with impressive gains also found in traditional investments. Reuters
Critics say that investors should avoid Bitcoin all together, with impressive gains also found in traditional investments. Reuters
Critics say that investors should avoid Bitcoin all together, with impressive gains also found in traditional investments. Reuters

My two cents on crypto: the bust is coming sooner than you think


Nick March
  • English
  • Arabic

Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, has had a remarkable recent rally, breaking through the $35,000 price barrier in the early days of 2021. Even the coin's brief midweek stumble should not mask the enormity of its climb in the past few weeks.

Its value stood at barely $11,000 in October, meaning if you'd hopped on board back then, your stake would look very good today. This autumn cryptocurrency rally has proved a boon for investors in other digital currencies too, such as Ethereum, which have rapidly appreciated in value in 2021.

But there is something troubling that is knotted deep within this narrative.

Market analysts sometimes refer to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as being notoriously volatile, which seems to be the kind of language an estate agent might use when trying to sell a property perched on the side of a not quite inactive volcano. JP Morgan warned this week of “headwinds” approaching for the largest cryptocurrency, as reported in Bloomberg.

The firm also called out an apparent bout of “speculative mania” as the main force that had pushed the price of Bitcoin up from below $5,000 in March 2020 to its current peaks.

As a matter of historic record, the cryptocurrency slumped to that 2020 low on the same March day the World Health Organisation declared the coronavirus crisis a pandemic, which seemed to cast the crypto as a mainstream asset that was responding in typically downbeat fashion to the black clouds that were gathering around the world.

The embrace of Bitcoin since then is partly attributed to it being seen as an alternative safe haven to gold in the face of that general uncertainty, despite its historic wild swings in price and broader concerns over significant hacks.

Even though the big idea of crypto is hugely appealing – it is a decentralised payment system that is beholden neither to central banks or governments – very few people have found a use for it as a currency to transact with or as part of their day-to-day lives. For now, and perhaps for years to come, it is a tool for speculation rather than an instrument of spending.

It is easy to make the case that the Bitcoin rally fits the profile of a classic bubble: the price is booming, more investors are moving into the market to buy a thing they don’t necessarily understand, driven by a variety of impulses including simple fear of missing out and just plain profit hunting. Greed and fear tend to inhabit the same space when a correction is on the horizon.

Few have a sensible explanation as to where the price may settle or historically could expound on why it dipped back to $5,000 or tracked beyond $35,000 on Wednesday. JP Morgan’s strategists also noted that Bitcoin’s price may soon be pushed up to between $50,000 and $100,000, but that “such price levels are unsustainable”.

For now Bitcoin beats on against the tide of sense and reason, neither a currency people truly transact with nor a financial system that empowers a decentralised commercial world.

Writing on these pages last week, columnist Mustafa Alrawi provided a robust commentary on why we shouldn't fall into the trap of saying the 2020s will herald a return to the Roaring Twenties a century ago, when a post-pandemic, post-Great War world began a decade of prosperity. Readers will not need reminding again that the decade ended badly with the Great Crash precipitating an economic depression and even the rise of fascism in Europe.

There are, of course, many reasons why people cast back to a century ago to seek answers today. Decades of mythologising the 1920s have polished its reputation as one of impossible glamour, great literature and, above all, good fun.

As James K Galbraith noted in the foreword to a 2009 edition of his father's definitive work on Wall Street, The Great Crash 1929, speculative investment made people "very happy" at the time. "Millions thought they could easily become rich, and some did," he writes, while also noting that "hope, credulity and carefree optimism" were the best parts of the boom of that decade.

There is one more reason why we should all be going cold on crypto: there is not much fun in sitting on a volatile asset. Even rollercoasters stop being enjoyable if you get to ride them all day every day. Bloomberg
There is one more reason why we should all be going cold on crypto: there is not much fun in sitting on a volatile asset. Even rollercoasters stop being enjoyable if you get to ride them all day every day. Bloomberg
I'd settle for the boring Twenties of growth and certainty this time around

The Bitcoin and crypto rally differ greatly from what happened a century ago, not just because any correction in price is unlikely to precipitate a wider economic crisis. Indeed, it is more likely to resemble the dotcom bubble of more recent decades in the sense that a period of intense speculation will be followed by a steep but relatively short correction. What it might do, however, is maroon plenty of smaller investors enticed by tales of huge profits for the taking.

There is one more reason why we should all be going cold on crypto: there is not much fun in sitting on a volatile asset. Even rollercoasters stop being enjoyable if you get to ride them all day every day. There is, in essence, a distinct lack of Galbraith’s hope and carefree optimism where crypto is concerned. Quite the opposite, in fact, just a grinding sense of "Fomo".

So, if like me, you have a hunch that cryptos may fall as quickly as they have risen, it may be time to sit this one out. The Roaring Twenties sounded like a lot of fun until the party ended. I’d settle for the boring Twenties of growth and certainty this time around.

Nick March is an assistant editor-in-chief at The National

Six things you need to know about UAE Women’s Special Olympics football team

Several girls started playing football at age four

They describe sport as their passion

The girls don’t dwell on their condition

They just say they may need to work a little harder than others

When not in training, they play football with their brothers and sisters

The girls want to inspire others to join the UAE Special Olympics teams

David Haye record

Total fights: 32
Wins: 28
Wins by KO: 26
Losses: 4

Silent Hill f

Publisher: Konami

Platforms: PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X/S, PC

Rating: 4.5/5

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%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Quentin%20Tarantino%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStars%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Uma%20Thurman%2C%20David%20Carradine%20and%20Michael%20Madsen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%204.5%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The story in numbers

18

This is how many recognised sects Lebanon is home to, along with about four million citizens

450,000

More than this many Palestinian refugees are registered with UNRWA in Lebanon, with about 45 per cent of them living in the country’s 12 refugee camps

1.5 million

There are just under 1 million Syrian refugees registered with the UN, although the government puts the figure upwards of 1.5m

73

The percentage of stateless people in Lebanon, who are not of Palestinian origin, born to a Lebanese mother, according to a 2012-2013 study by human rights organisation Frontiers Ruwad Association

18,000

The number of marriages recorded between Lebanese women and foreigners between the years 1995 and 2008, according to a 2009 study backed by the UN Development Programme

77,400

The number of people believed to be affected by the current nationality law, according to the 2009 UN study

4,926

This is how many Lebanese-Palestinian households there were in Lebanon in 2016, according to a census by the Lebanese-Palestinian dialogue committee

Switching%20sides
%3Cp%3EMahika%20Gaur%20is%20the%20latest%20Dubai-raised%20athlete%20to%20attain%20top%20honours%20with%20another%20country.%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EVelimir%20Stjepanovic%20(Serbia%2C%20swimming)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBorn%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi%20and%20raised%20in%20Dubai%2C%20he%20finished%20sixth%20in%20the%20final%20of%20the%202012%20Olympic%20Games%20in%20London%20in%20the%20200m%20butterfly%20final.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EJonny%20Macdonald%20(Scotland%2C%20rugby%20union)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EBrought%20up%20in%20Abu%20Dhabi%20and%20represented%20the%20region%20in%20international%20rugby.%20When%20the%20Arabian%20Gulf%20team%20was%20broken%20up%20into%20its%20constituent%20nations%2C%20he%20opted%20to%20play%20for%20Scotland%20instead%2C%20and%20went%20to%20the%20Hong%20Kong%20Sevens.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESophie%20Shams%20(England%2C%20rugby%20union)%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E%0D%3Cbr%3EThe%20daughter%20of%20an%20English%20mother%20and%20Emirati%20father%2C%20Shams%20excelled%20at%20rugby%20in%20Dubai%2C%20then%20after%20attending%20university%20in%20the%20UK%20played%20for%20England%20at%20sevens.%20%0D%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
COMPANY PROFILE
Name: Akeed

Based: Muscat

Launch year: 2018

Number of employees: 40

Sector: Online food delivery

Funding: Raised $3.2m since inception 

SCORES

Multiply Titans 81-2 in 12.1 overs
(Tony de Zorzi, 34)

bt Auckland Aces 80 all out in 16 overs
(Shawn von Borg 4-15, Alfred Mothoa 2-11, Tshepo Moreki 2-16).

UAE SQUAD

 Khalid Essa (Al Ain), Ali Khaseif (Al Jazira), Adel Al Hosani (Sharjah), Mahmoud Khamis (Al Nasr), Yousef Jaber (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai), Khalifa Al Hammadi (Jazira), Salem Rashid (Jazira), Shaheen Abdelrahman (Sharjah), Faris Juma (Al Wahda), Mohammed Shaker (Al Ain), Mohammed Barghash (Wahda), Abdulaziz Haikal (Shabab Al Ahli), Ahmed Barman (Al Ain), Khamis Esmail (Wahda), Khaled Bawazir (Sharjah), Majed Surour (Sharjah), Abdullah Ramadan (Jazira), Mohammed Al Attas (Jazira), Fabio De Lima (Al Wasl), Bandar Al Ahbabi (Al Ain), Khalfan Mubarak (Jazira), Habib Fardan (Nasr), Khalil Ibrahim (Wahda), Ali Mabkhout (Jazira), Ali Saleh (Wasl), Caio (Al Ain), Sebastian Tagliabue (Nasr).

BIGGEST CYBER SECURITY INCIDENTS IN RECENT TIMES

SolarWinds supply chain attack: Came to light in December 2020 but had taken root for several months, compromising major tech companies, governments and its entities

Microsoft Exchange server exploitation: March 2021; attackers used a vulnerability to steal emails

Kaseya attack: July 2021; ransomware hit perpetrated REvil, resulting in severe downtime for more than 1,000 companies

Log4j breach: December 2021; attackers exploited the Java-written code to inflitrate businesses and governments

How to apply for a drone permit
  • Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
  • Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
  • Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
  • Submit their request
What are the regulations?
  • Fly it within visual line of sight
  • Never over populated areas
  • Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
  • Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
  • Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
  • Should have a live feed of the drone flight
  • Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
The biog

Hometown: Cairo

Age: 37

Favourite TV series: The Handmaid’s Tale, Black Mirror

Favourite anime series: Death Note, One Piece and Hellsing

Favourite book: Designing Brand Identity, Fifth Edition

Company%20profile
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England squads for Test and T20 series against New Zealand

Test squad: Joe Root (capt), Jofra Archer, Stuart Broad, Rory Burns, Jos Buttler, Zak Crawley, Sam Curran, Joe Denly, Jack Leach, Saqib Mahmood, Matthew Parkinson, Ollie Pope, Dominic Sibley, Ben Stokes, Chris Woakes

T20 squad: Eoin Morgan (capt), Jonny Bairstow, Tom Banton, Sam Billings, Pat Brown, Sam Curran, Tom Curran, Joe Denly, Lewis Gregory, Chris Jordan, Saqib Mahmood, Dawid Malan, Matt Parkinson, Adil Rashid, James Vince

Global state-owned investor ranking by size

1.

United States

2.

China

3.

UAE

4.

Japan

5

Norway

6.

Canada

7.

Singapore

8.

Australia

9.

Saudi Arabia

10.

South Korea

Our legal consultants

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.

Our legal consultant

Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais

Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants

LEADERBOARD
%3Cp%3E-19%20T%20Fleetwood%20(Eng)%3B%20-18%20R%20McIlroy%20(NI)%2C%20T%20Lawrence%20(SA)%3B%20-16%20J%20Smith%3B%20-15%20F%20Molinari%20(Ita)%3B%20-14%20Z%20Lombard%20(SA)%2C%20S%20Crocker%20(US)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESelected%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3E-11%20A%20Meronk%20(Pol)%3B%20-10%20E%20Ferguson%20(Sco)%3B%20-8%20R%20Fox%20(NZ)%20-7%20L%20Donald%20(Eng)%3B%20-5%20T%20McKibbin%20(NI)%2C%20N%20Hoejgaard%20(Den)%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
The specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4-cylinder turbo hybrid

Transmission: eight-speed automatic

Power: 390bhp

Torque: 400Nm

Price: Dh340,000 ($92,579

Two products to make at home

Toilet cleaner

1 cup baking soda 

1 cup castile soap

10-20 drops of lemon essential oil (or another oil of your choice) 

Method:

1. Mix the baking soda and castile soap until you get a nice consistency.

2. Add the essential oil to the mix.

Air Freshener

100ml water 

5 drops of the essential oil of your choice (note: lavender is a nice one for this) 

Method:

1. Add water and oil to spray bottle to store.

2. Shake well before use. 

Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5