Critics say that investors should avoid Bitcoin all together, with impressive gains also found in traditional investments. Reuters
Critics say that investors should avoid Bitcoin all together, with impressive gains also found in traditional investments. Reuters
Critics say that investors should avoid Bitcoin all together, with impressive gains also found in traditional investments. Reuters
Critics say that investors should avoid Bitcoin all together, with impressive gains also found in traditional investments. Reuters

My two cents on crypto: the bust is coming sooner than you think


Nick March
  • English
  • Arabic

Bitcoin, the world's leading cryptocurrency, has had a remarkable recent rally, breaking through the $35,000 price barrier in the early days of 2021. Even the coin's brief midweek stumble should not mask the enormity of its climb in the past few weeks.

Its value stood at barely $11,000 in October, meaning if you'd hopped on board back then, your stake would look very good today. This autumn cryptocurrency rally has proved a boon for investors in other digital currencies too, such as Ethereum, which have rapidly appreciated in value in 2021.

But there is something troubling that is knotted deep within this narrative.

Market analysts sometimes refer to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as being notoriously volatile, which seems to be the kind of language an estate agent might use when trying to sell a property perched on the side of a not quite inactive volcano. JP Morgan warned this week of “headwinds” approaching for the largest cryptocurrency, as reported in Bloomberg.

The firm also called out an apparent bout of “speculative mania” as the main force that had pushed the price of Bitcoin up from below $5,000 in March 2020 to its current peaks.

As a matter of historic record, the cryptocurrency slumped to that 2020 low on the same March day the World Health Organisation declared the coronavirus crisis a pandemic, which seemed to cast the crypto as a mainstream asset that was responding in typically downbeat fashion to the black clouds that were gathering around the world.

The embrace of Bitcoin since then is partly attributed to it being seen as an alternative safe haven to gold in the face of that general uncertainty, despite its historic wild swings in price and broader concerns over significant hacks.

Even though the big idea of crypto is hugely appealing – it is a decentralised payment system that is beholden neither to central banks or governments – very few people have found a use for it as a currency to transact with or as part of their day-to-day lives. For now, and perhaps for years to come, it is a tool for speculation rather than an instrument of spending.

It is easy to make the case that the Bitcoin rally fits the profile of a classic bubble: the price is booming, more investors are moving into the market to buy a thing they don’t necessarily understand, driven by a variety of impulses including simple fear of missing out and just plain profit hunting. Greed and fear tend to inhabit the same space when a correction is on the horizon.

Few have a sensible explanation as to where the price may settle or historically could expound on why it dipped back to $5,000 or tracked beyond $35,000 on Wednesday. JP Morgan’s strategists also noted that Bitcoin’s price may soon be pushed up to between $50,000 and $100,000, but that “such price levels are unsustainable”.

For now Bitcoin beats on against the tide of sense and reason, neither a currency people truly transact with nor a financial system that empowers a decentralised commercial world.

Writing on these pages last week, columnist Mustafa Alrawi provided a robust commentary on why we shouldn't fall into the trap of saying the 2020s will herald a return to the Roaring Twenties a century ago, when a post-pandemic, post-Great War world began a decade of prosperity. Readers will not need reminding again that the decade ended badly with the Great Crash precipitating an economic depression and even the rise of fascism in Europe.

There are, of course, many reasons why people cast back to a century ago to seek answers today. Decades of mythologising the 1920s have polished its reputation as one of impossible glamour, great literature and, above all, good fun.

As James K Galbraith noted in the foreword to a 2009 edition of his father's definitive work on Wall Street, The Great Crash 1929, speculative investment made people "very happy" at the time. "Millions thought they could easily become rich, and some did," he writes, while also noting that "hope, credulity and carefree optimism" were the best parts of the boom of that decade.

There is one more reason why we should all be going cold on crypto: there is not much fun in sitting on a volatile asset. Even rollercoasters stop being enjoyable if you get to ride them all day every day. Bloomberg
There is one more reason why we should all be going cold on crypto: there is not much fun in sitting on a volatile asset. Even rollercoasters stop being enjoyable if you get to ride them all day every day. Bloomberg
I'd settle for the boring Twenties of growth and certainty this time around

The Bitcoin and crypto rally differ greatly from what happened a century ago, not just because any correction in price is unlikely to precipitate a wider economic crisis. Indeed, it is more likely to resemble the dotcom bubble of more recent decades in the sense that a period of intense speculation will be followed by a steep but relatively short correction. What it might do, however, is maroon plenty of smaller investors enticed by tales of huge profits for the taking.

There is one more reason why we should all be going cold on crypto: there is not much fun in sitting on a volatile asset. Even rollercoasters stop being enjoyable if you get to ride them all day every day. There is, in essence, a distinct lack of Galbraith’s hope and carefree optimism where crypto is concerned. Quite the opposite, in fact, just a grinding sense of "Fomo".

So, if like me, you have a hunch that cryptos may fall as quickly as they have risen, it may be time to sit this one out. The Roaring Twenties sounded like a lot of fun until the party ended. I’d settle for the boring Twenties of growth and certainty this time around.

Nick March is an assistant editor-in-chief at The National

UK-EU trade at a glance

EU fishing vessels guaranteed access to UK waters for 12 years

Co-operation on security initiatives and procurement of defence products

Youth experience scheme to work, study or volunteer in UK and EU countries

Smoother border management with use of e-gates

Cutting red tape on import and export of food

It Was Just an Accident

Director: Jafar Panahi

Stars: Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, Hadis Pakbaten, Majid Panahi, Mohamad Ali Elyasmehr

Rating: 4/5

THE SPECS

Cadillac XT6 2020 Premium Luxury

Engine:  3.6L V-6

Transmission: nine-speed automatic

Power: 310hp

Torque: 367Nm

Price: Dh280,000

If you go

The flights
Emirates flies from Dubai to Seattle from Dh5,555 return, including taxes.


The car
Hertz offers compact car rental from about $300 (Dh1,100) per week, including taxes. Emirates Skywards members can earn points on their car hire through Hertz.


The national park
Entry to Mount Rainier National Park costs $30 for one vehicle and passengers for up to seven days. Accommodation can be booked through mtrainierguestservices.com. Prices vary according to season. Rooms at the Holiday Inn Yakima cost from $125 per night, excluding breakfast.

TYPES%20OF%20ONLINE%20GIG%20WORK
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDesign%2C%20multimedia%20and%20creative%20work%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELogo%20design%2C%20website%20design%2C%20visualisations%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBusiness%20and%20professional%20management%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ELegal%20or%20management%20consulting%2C%20architecture%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EBusiness%20and%20professional%20support%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EResearch%20support%2C%20proofreading%2C%20bookkeeping%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3ESales%20and%20marketing%20support%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3ESearch%20engine%20optimisation%2C%20social%20media%20marketing%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EData%20entry%2C%20administrative%2C%20and%20clerical%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EData%20entry%20tasks%2C%20virtual%20assistants%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EIT%2C%20software%20development%20and%20tech%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EData%20analyst%2C%20back-end%20or%20front-end%20developers%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EWriting%20and%20translation%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EContent%20writing%2C%20ghost%20writing%2C%20translation%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EOnline%20microtasks%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EImage%20tagging%2C%20surveys%3C%2Fp%3E%0A%3Cp%3E%3Cem%3ESource%3A%20World%20Bank%3C%2Fem%3E%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
Paatal Lok season two

Directors: Avinash Arun, Prosit Roy 

Stars: Jaideep Ahlawat, Ishwak Singh, Lc Sekhose, Merenla Imsong

Rating: 4.5/5

Match info

Liverpool 3
Hoedt (10' og), Matip (21'), Salah (45 3')

Southampton 0

The schedule

December 5 - 23: Shooting competition, Al Dhafra Shooting Club

December 9 - 24: Handicrafts competition, from 4pm until 10pm, Heritage Souq

December 11 - 20: Dates competition, from 4pm

December 12 - 20: Sour milk competition

December 13: Falcon beauty competition

December 14 and 20: Saluki races

December 15: Arabian horse races, from 4pm

December 16 - 19: Falconry competition

December 18: Camel milk competition, from 7.30 - 9.30 am

December 20 and 21: Sheep beauty competition, from 10am

December 22: The best herd of 30 camels

What can victims do?

Always use only regulated platforms

Stop all transactions and communication on suspicion

Save all evidence (screenshots, chat logs, transaction IDs)

Report to local authorities

Warn others to prevent further harm

Courtesy: Crystal Intelligence

SPEC SHEET

Display: 6.8" edge quad-HD  dynamic Amoled 2X, Infinity-O, 3088 x 1440, 500ppi, HDR10 , 120Hz

Processor: 4nm Snapdragon 8 Gen 1/Exynos 2200, 8-core

Memory: 8/12GB RAM

Storage: 128/256/512GB/1TB

Platform: Android 12

Main camera: quad 12MP ultra-wide f/2.2, 108MP wide f/1.8, 10MP telephoto f/4.9, 10MP telephoto 2.4; Space Zoom up to 100x, auto HDR, expert RAW

Video: 8K@24fps, 4K@60fps, full-HD@60fps, HD@30fps, super slo-mo@960fps

Front camera: 40MP f/2.2

Battery: 5000mAh, fast wireless charging 2.0 Wireless PowerShare

Connectivity: 5G, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth 5.2, NFC

I/O: USB-C

SIM: single nano, or nano and SIM, nano and nano, eSIM/nano and nano

Colours: burgundy, green, phantom black, phantom white, graphite, sky blue, red

Price: Dh4,699 for 128GB, Dh5,099 for 256GB, Dh5,499 for 512GB; 1TB unavailable in the UAE

Indoor cricket in a nutshell

Indoor cricket in a nutshell
Indoor Cricket World Cup - Sept 16-20, Insportz, Dubai

16 Indoor cricket matches are 16 overs per side
8 There are eight players per team
9 There have been nine Indoor Cricket World Cups for men. Australia have won every one.
5 Five runs are deducted from the score when a wickets falls
4 Batsmen bat in pairs, facing four overs per partnership

Scoring In indoor cricket, runs are scored by way of both physical and bonus runs. Physical runs are scored by both batsmen completing a run from one crease to the other. Bonus runs are scored when the ball hits a net in different zones, but only when at least one physical run is score.

Zones

A Front net, behind the striker and wicketkeeper: 0 runs
B Side nets, between the striker and halfway down the pitch: 1 run
C Side nets between halfway and the bowlers end: 2 runs
D Back net: 4 runs on the bounce, 6 runs on the full

Five famous companies founded by teens

There are numerous success stories of teen businesses that were created in college dorm rooms and other modest circumstances. Below are some of the most recognisable names in the industry:

  1. Facebook: Mark Zuckerberg and his friends started Facebook when he was a 19-year-old Harvard undergraduate. 
  2. Dell: When Michael Dell was an undergraduate student at Texas University in 1984, he started upgrading computers for profit. He starting working full-time on his business when he was 19. Eventually, his company became the Dell Computer Corporation and then Dell Inc. 
  3. Subway: Fred DeLuca opened the first Subway restaurant when he was 17. In 1965, Mr DeLuca needed extra money for college, so he decided to open his own business. Peter Buck, a family friend, lent him $1,000 and together, they opened Pete’s Super Submarines. A few years later, the company was rebranded and called Subway. 
  4. Mashable: In 2005, Pete Cashmore created Mashable in Scotland when he was a teenager. The site was then a technology blog. Over the next few decades, Mr Cashmore has turned Mashable into a global media company.
  5. Oculus VR: Palmer Luckey founded Oculus VR in June 2012, when he was 19. In August that year, Oculus launched its Kickstarter campaign and raised more than $1 million in three days. Facebook bought Oculus for $2 billion two years later.
The specs: 2017 Lotus Evora Sport 410

Price, base / as tested Dh395,000 / Dh420,000

Engine 3.5L V6

Transmission Six-speed manual

Power 410hp @ 7,000rpm

Torque 420Nm @ 3,500rpm

Fuel economy, combined 9.7L / 100km

THE%20STRANGERS'%20CASE
%3Cp%3E%3Cstrong%3EDirector%3C%2Fstrong%3E%3A%20Brandt%20Andersen%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3EStarring%3A%20%3C%2Fstrong%3EOmar%20Sy%2C%20Jason%20Beghe%2C%20Angeliki%20Papoulia%3Cbr%3E%3Cstrong%3ERating%3A%3C%2Fstrong%3E%204%2F5%3C%2Fp%3E%0A
How to apply for a drone permit
  • Individuals must register on UAE Drone app or website using their UAE Pass
  • Add all their personal details, including name, nationality, passport number, Emiratis ID, email and phone number
  • Upload the training certificate from a centre accredited by the GCAA
  • Submit their request
What are the regulations?
  • Fly it within visual line of sight
  • Never over populated areas
  • Ensure maximum flying height of 400 feet (122 metres) above ground level is not crossed
  • Users must avoid flying over restricted areas listed on the UAE Drone app
  • Only fly the drone during the day, and never at night
  • Should have a live feed of the drone flight
  • Drones must weigh 5 kg or less
LOVE%20AGAIN
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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets