An Afghan shopkeeper removes the broken glass window of his shop near the site of a bomb attack in Kabul, Afghanistan, January 28, 2018. REUTERS/Omar Sobhani
An Afghan shopkeeper removes the broken glass window of his shop near the site of the bomb attack in Kabul, Afghanistan, which killed 95 people. Omar Sobhani / Reuters

Kabul attack: the complex calculations at work in Afghanistan's new theatre of conflict



Saturday’s bomb attack in a crowded area of Kabul is the second deadly event in the span of a week. There has also been an attack in Jalalabad within the same period. The Taliban seems determined to disrupt the peace and lay siege to Kabul.

The key questions now are why they have attacked and what prompted the urgency for this intensity of war? To understand this, it is essential to trace recent Afghan history.

Jalaluddin Haqqani, the patriarch of the Haqqani network, accepted Mullah Mohammed Omar after the fall of Kabul in 1996 as his titular overlord, but guarded the independence of his group.

Since he assumed the leadership in 2014, Sirajuddin, Jalaluddin’s son, has done so even more fiercely. The reason for this independence was that their acceptance of Omar’s superiority was very reluctant; caused by the impression, in 1996, that Pakistan and also the US, were determined to see Taliban become the rulers of Afghanistan.

Haqqani had been an asset nurtured by the CIA from 1990 until 1994 and had refused to interact with Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence. By 1996, Jalaluddin felt himself to have been abandoned by CIA and perhaps, therefore, felt compelled to accept Omar as overlord.

The Haqqanis belong to the Afghan Zadran, a Pashtun tribe. The bulk of this tribe resides in northern Afghanistan, the region surrounding Kabul. This is different to the Afghan Taliban, the bulk of whom are Durranis and Ghilzais, with a smattering of representation from other tribes, who are located around Kandahar in southern Afghanistan.

By virtue of geography, the Haqqanis have greater and easier access to Kabul and Jalalabad region than the Afghan Taliban. It is far easier to infiltrate and attack Kabul from its vicinity than to pass by scores of check-points manned by Afghan troops and linked by patrols of Afghans and Americans that pepper the routes from Kandahar.

Given the frequency with which these attacks have occurred, one might conclude that the perpetrators hail from areas in the vicinity of Kabul and Jalalabad, the area of the Afghan Zadran tribe, implying the Haqqani network was responsible.

But each of these attacks has been promptly claimed by the Afghan Taliban, rather than the Haqqani network. However, even if the attackers were not from the Haqqanis, they must have been given succor and assistance by the group. It also seems fair to assume that the Haqqani acceptance of the Taliban, now led by Hibatullah Akhundzada of Kandahar, is genuine.

The ingenuity and intrepid audacity of these recent attacks points towards the Haqqani network, but the group prides itself on only targeting US or Afghan security forces. Their effort was to avoid collateral damage as far as possible among the general public.

I can think of only two reasons that have prompted this significant change of heart. First, a shift in the acceptance of the Haqqanis now being part of the broader Taliban operation and no longer their own network, and second, an indifferent attitude towards civilian casualties.

The US has for some years singled out the Taliban for talks and refused to engage with the Haqqani network, identifying the latter as the implacable enemy. Donald Trump, however, has recently announced that there can be no negotiations with any dissident group. Thus placing the two on a level playing field again.

Haqqanis were beginning to feel isolated when they were considered the sole enemy by the US. Thus, when the two again reached parity, the Haqqani network was amenable to getting together with the Taliban. For their part, the Taliban are very conscious that while they might hold sway over a considerable portion of southern Afghanistan, their ability to threaten Kabul and its surrounding areas depends entirely on the cooperation of the Haqqani network.

Given the preceding events, their union seems to have been inevitable. The two have found common cause in their renewed determination to oust the US and remove the Kabul government; which is again being viewed as a US-puppet. And, if in that process, some innocent Afghans must die, so be it. This has been so in freedom struggles throughout history.

Despite the increasing diversity in US and Pakistan national interests in Afghanistan, most analysts, including myself, have held the view that the two still have hopes of reconciliation, since their common ultimate aim in the region is a peaceful and secure Afghanistan.

Of late, I have increasingly wondered if that is still true. Or, in its determination to contain China that the US has realised the invaluable location of Afghanistan is ideal for spreading insecurity into Muslim-heavy Western China as well as Central Asia and Pakistan, in a last attempt to sabotage the China-Pakistan economic corridor? Only time will tell if that is the case.

Brig Shaukat Qadir is a retired Pakistani infantry officer

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Starring: Lakshya, Tanya Maniktala, Ashish Vidyarthi, Harsh Chhaya, Raghav Juyal

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7.30pm: Handicap (PA) Dh100,000 (T) 2,400m
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EMIRATES'S REVISED A350 DEPLOYMENT SCHEDULE

Edinburgh: November 4 (unchanged)

Bahrain: November 15 (from September 15); second daily service from January 1

Kuwait: November 15 (from September 16)

Mumbai: January 1 (from October 27)

Ahmedabad: January 1 (from October 27)

Colombo: January 2 (from January 1)

Muscat: March 1 (from December 1)

Lyon: March 1 (from December 1)

Bologna: March 1 (from December 1)

Source: Emirates

ROUTE TO TITLE

Round 1: Beat Leolia Jeanjean 6-1, 6-2
Round 2: Beat Naomi Osaka 7-6, 1-6, 7-5
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Quarter-final: Beat Marketa Vondrousova 6-0, 6-2
Semi-final: Beat Coco Gauff 6-2, 6-4
Final: Beat Jasmine Paolini 6-2, 6-2

Navdeep Suri, India's Ambassador to the UAE

There has been a longstanding need from the Indian community to have a religious premises where they can practise their beliefs. Currently there is a very, very small temple in Bur Dubai and the community has outgrown this. So this will be a major temple and open to all denominations and a place should reflect India’s diversity.

It fits so well into the UAE’s own commitment to tolerance and pluralism and coming in the year of tolerance gives it that extra dimension.

What we will see on April 20 is the foundation ceremony and we expect a pretty broad cross section of the Indian community to be present, both from the UAE and abroad. The Hindu group that is building the temple will have their holiest leader attending – and we expect very senior representation from the leadership of the UAE.

When the designs were taken to the leadership, there were two clear options. There was a New Jersey model with a rectangular structure with the temple recessed inside so it was not too visible from the outside and another was the Neasden temple in London with the spires in its classical shape. And they said: look we said we wanted a temple so it should look like a temple. So this should be a classical style temple in all its glory.

It is beautifully located - 30 minutes outside of Abu Dhabi and barely 45 minutes to Dubai so it serves the needs of both communities.

This is going to be the big temple where I expect people to come from across the country at major festivals and occasions.

It is hugely important – it will take a couple of years to complete given the scale. It is going to be remarkable and will contribute something not just to the landscape in terms of visual architecture but also to the ethos. Here will be a real representation of UAE’s pluralism.

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The years Ramadan fell in May

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Key figures in the life of the fort

Sheikh Dhiyab bin Isa (ruled 1761-1793) Built Qasr Al Hosn as a watchtower to guard over the only freshwater well on Abu Dhabi island.

Sheikh Shakhbut bin Dhiyab (ruled 1793-1816) Expanded the tower into a small fort and transferred his ruling place of residence from Liwa Oasis to the fort on the island.

Sheikh Tahnoon bin Shakhbut (ruled 1818-1833) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further as Abu Dhabi grew from a small village of palm huts to a town of more than 5,000 inhabitants.

Sheikh Khalifa bin Shakhbut (ruled 1833-1845) Repaired and fortified the fort.

Sheikh Saeed bin Tahnoon (ruled 1845-1855) Turned Qasr Al Hosn into a strong two-storied structure.

Sheikh Zayed bin Khalifa (ruled 1855-1909) Expanded Qasr Al Hosn further to reflect the emirate's increasing prominence.

Sheikh Shakhbut bin Sultan (ruled 1928-1966) Renovated and enlarged Qasr Al Hosn, adding a decorative arch and two new villas.

Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan (ruled 1966-2004) Moved the royal residence to Al Manhal palace and kept his diwan at Qasr Al Hosn.

Sources: Jayanti Maitra, www.adach.ae

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Founder: Ambareen Musa

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Sector: FinTech 

Initial investment: undisclosed but soon to be announced 

Number of staff: 12 

Investment stage: seed  

Investors: Shuaa Capital

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The burning issue

The internal combustion engine is facing a watershed moment – major manufacturer Volvo is to stop producing petroleum-powered vehicles by 2021 and countries in Europe, including the UK, have vowed to ban their sale before 2040. The National takes a look at the story of one of the most successful technologies of the last 100 years and how it has impacted life in the UAE. 

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The biog

Favourite hobby: I love to sing but I don’t get to sing as much nowadays sadly.

Favourite book: Anything by Sidney Sheldon.

Favourite movie: The Exorcist 2. It is a big thing in our family to sit around together and watch horror movies, I love watching them.

Favourite holiday destination: The favourite place I have been to is Florence, it is a beautiful city. My dream though has always been to visit Cyprus, I really want to go there.

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