US President Joe Biden’s determination to erase the foreign policy legacy of his predecessor Donald Trump risks running Washington into an ambush of its own making. The Biden administration’s rush to resume close co-operation with European powers certainly has advantages, but delegating the resolution of international conflicts to France, Germany or others could land the US in undesirable scenarios and undermine its leadership.
In truth, one of the biggest challenges facing Mr Biden is combatting the impression of him as weak and unable to chart an independent course from the administration of his former boss Barack Obama. This is evident in the contradictions of his promises regarding Iran.
Next week, Mr Biden could fall into an Iranian trap. Iran’s Parliament and leadership have set a deadline of February 23, after which it says the window for reviving the Obama-era 2015 nuclear deal – and US-Iranian relations – will close.
Tehran is wagering on a structural weakness it perceives in the character of Mr Biden and the composition of the team he has assembled. It is not too anxious about US vows to respond to Iran’s threats to US allies because it does not take the Biden administration seriously. Rather, it is confident Biden’s Washington will back down with the encouragement of European powers terrified by Iran’s threats.
The messages sent out by Iran’s leaders contain warnings to Washington and European capitals. The gist of these messages is that Iran is ready to close the door on nuclear talks altogether if there is no prospect of a return to the old nuclear deal. In the view of Iran’s leaders, this threat will be enough to incentivise the Europeans to back down like they did in negotiating the first deal.
The E3 countries – Britain, Germany and France – were complicit in the Obama administration’s turning a blind eye to Iran’s regional behaviour in 2015. Their lifting of sanctions enabled Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to carry out a subversive, expansionist and sovereignty-busting agenda from Iraq to Lebanon via Syria and Yemen. In reality, this was a calculated decision, not an oversight, by the Obama administration, endorsed by the E3 while all were fully aware of the terrible consequences, because they believed nuclear containment of Iran was worth the cost.
Iranian foreign minister is often promoted as a moderate voice, but his government's foreign policy is getting increasingly hardline. Reuters
Today, Iran insists that sanctions must be lifted before reviving the nuclear agreement. Its strategy is once again reliant on American weakness and European fear. It has confidently raised the ceiling believing that the E3 once again would midwife an American retreat from insisting upon Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal as a precondition to lifting sanctions.
Unless they pre-empt European concessions with their own diplomatic pressure, Europe’s Arab allies will be in for a repeat of the past, in which Iran’s agenda in the region has had a tragic humanitarian cost in Syria and a devastating effect on the sovereignty of Lebanon and Iraq.
Another point of leverage that Iran could deploy against the US and Europe is the coming Iranian election, and the prospect of it leading to full IRGC control of Iran’s government, without the fig leaf of the so-called moderates like President Hassan Rouhani and his foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.
The European and American statements expressing concern over Iranian escalation – without specifying it – reflect the structural weaknesses of Europe and America’s policy direction. The danger of speaking about Iranian threats in the language of “we will not tolerate” but without follow-through is that it conditions Iran to believe it’s all talk and no action. This is how foreign policy becomes glib. It will also deny the Biden administration not only credibility, but leverage, which it seems willing to give up in the service of undoing the Trump legacy. That would be a shame, because the reality is that many of Mr Trump’s policies in the Middle East were realistic, pragmatic and served the interests of the US and the region.
Iranian warships conduct a joint exercise with the Russian navy in the Indian Ocean on February 16, 2021. Iranian Army via Reuters
Tehran also has less reason to fear Israel’s wrath about its nuclear programme, thanks to the growing prominence of Russian diplomacy in the Middle East. Moscow, which is friendly to both Iran and Israel, wants to minimise the prospect of the two countries clashing, especially in Syria, a major arena of Russian influence. Tehran is also betting on Israel’s political paralysis because of its preoccupation with the elections and its internal divisions, and also on the difficulty of Israel obtaining a green light from the Biden administration for any military adventures, at least at his juncture.
Next week, Mr Biden could fall into an Iranian trap
Iran’s overconfidence these days in its policies and escalatory actions are primarily the result of its perception of Western weakness, but it also based on the calculation by some hardliners that tearing apart the nuclear deal may prove the best way to unleash the country’s foreign policy. In this line of thinking, the collapse of negotiations with the West could leave the door open for Tehran to engage more with Moscow and Beijing. Asian markets offer plenty of opportunities for Iranian oil and weapons exports.
Iran’s deadline for the US may pass without consequence, and this week may not prove so fateful. But as Mr Biden’s Iran strategy continues to form, the prospect of mistakes being made looms on the horizon.
Raghida Dergham is the founder and executive chairwoman of the Beirut Institute and a columnist for The National
October 26: Bahrain withdraws from a proposal to create a federation of nine with the seven Trucial States and Qatar.
December: Ahmed Al Suwaidi visits New York to discuss potential UN membership.
1971
March 1: Alex Douglas Hume, Conservative foreign secretary confirms that Britain will leave the Gulf and “strongly supports” the creation of a Union of Arab Emirates.
July 12: Historic meeting at which Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid make a binding agreement to create what will become the UAE.
July 18: It is announced that the UAE will be formed from six emirates, with a proposed constitution signed. RAK is not yet part of the agreement.
August 6: The fifth anniversary of Sheikh Zayed becoming Ruler of Abu Dhabi, with official celebrations deferred until later in the year.
August 15: Bahrain becomes independent.
September 3: Qatar becomes independent.
November 23-25: Meeting with Sheikh Zayed and Sheikh Rashid and senior British officials to fix December 2 as date of creation of the UAE.
November 29: At 5.30pm Iranian forces seize the Greater and Lesser Tunbs by force.
November 30: Despite a power sharing agreement, Tehran takes full control of Abu Musa.
November 31: UK officials visit all six participating Emirates to formally end the Trucial States treaties
December 2: 11am, Dubai. New Supreme Council formally elects Sheikh Zayed as President. Treaty of Friendship signed with the UK. 11.30am. Flag raising ceremony at Union House and Al Manhal Palace in Abu Dhabi witnessed by Sheikh Khalifa, then Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi.
December 6: Arab League formally admits the UAE. The first British Ambassador presents his credentials to Sheikh Zayed.
December 9: UAE joins the United Nations.
MATCH INFO
France 3
Umtiti (8'), Griezmann (29' pen), Dembele (63')
Italy 1
Bonucci (36')
What is graphene?
Graphene is a single layer of carbon atoms arranged like honeycomb.
It was discovered in 2004, when Russian-born Manchester scientists Andrei Geim and Kostya Novoselov were "playing about" with sticky tape and graphite - the material used as "lead" in pencils.
Placing the tape on the graphite and peeling it, they managed to rip off thin flakes of carbon. In the beginning they got flakes consisting of many layers of graphene. But as they repeated the process many times, the flakes got thinner.
By separating the graphite fragments repeatedly, they managed to create flakes that were just one atom thick. Their experiment had led to graphene being isolated for the very first time.
At the time, many believed it was impossible for such thin crystalline materials to be stable. But examined under a microscope, the material remained stable, and when tested was found to have incredible properties.
It is many times times stronger than steel, yet incredibly lightweight and flexible. It is electrically and thermally conductive but also transparent. The world's first 2D material, it is one million times thinner than the diameter of a single human hair.
But the 'sticky tape' method would not work on an industrial scale. Since then, scientists have been working on manufacturing graphene, to make use of its incredible properties.
In 2010, Geim and Novoselov were awarded the Nobel Prize for Physics. Their discovery meant physicists could study a new class of two-dimensional materials with unique properties.
Our legal consultant
Name: Hassan Mohsen Elhais
Position: legal consultant with Al Rowaad Advocates and Legal Consultants.
“Join in with a group like Cycle Safe Dubai or TrainYAS, where you’ll meet like-minded people and always have support on hand.”
Stewart Howison, co-founder of Cycle Safe Dubai and owner of Revolution Cycles
“When you sweat a lot, you lose a lot of salt and other electrolytes from your body. If your electrolytes drop enough, you will be at risk of cramping. To prevent salt deficiency, simply add an electrolyte mix to your water.”
Cornelia Gloor, head of RAK Hospital’s Rehabilitation and Physiotherapy Centre
“Don’t make the mistake of thinking you can ride as fast or as far during the summer as you do in cooler weather. The heat will make you expend more energy to maintain a speed that might normally be comfortable, so pace yourself when riding during the hotter parts of the day.”
Chandrashekar Nandi, physiotherapist at Burjeel Hospital in Dubai
Key facilities
Olympic-size swimming pool with a split bulkhead for multi-use configurations, including water polo and 50m/25m training lanes
Premier League-standard football pitch
400m Olympic running track
NBA-spec basketball court with auditorium
600-seat auditorium
Spaces for historical and cultural exploration
An elevated football field that doubles as a helipad
Specialist robotics and science laboratories
AR and VR-enabled learning centres
Disruption Lab and Research Centre for developing entrepreneurial skills
Islamophobia definition
A widely accepted definition was made by the All Party Parliamentary Group on British Muslims in 2019: “Islamophobia is rooted in racism and is a type of racism that targets expressions of Muslimness or perceived Muslimness.” It further defines it as “inciting hatred or violence against Muslims”.
The bairaq is a competition for the best herd of 50 camels, named for the banner its winner takes home
Namoos - a word of congratulations reserved for falconry competitions, camel races and camel pageants. It best translates as 'the pride of victory' - and for competitors, it is priceless
Majahim - chocolate-brown camels that can grow to weigh two tonnes. They were only valued for milk until camel pageantry took off in the 1990s
Millions Street - the thoroughfare where camels are led and where white 4x4s throng throughout the festival
if you go
The flights
Flydubai flies to Podgorica or nearby Tivat via Sarajevo from Dh2,155 return including taxes. Turkish Airlines flies from Abu Dhabi and Dubai to Podgorica via Istanbul; alternatively, fly with Flydubai from Dubai to Belgrade and take a short flight with Montenegro Air to Podgorica. Etihad flies from Abu Dhabi to Podgorica via Belgrade. Flights cost from about Dh3,000 return including taxes. There are buses from Podgorica to Plav.
The tour
While you can apply for a permit for the route yourself, it’s best to travel with an agency that will arrange it for you. These include Zbulo in Albania (www.zbulo.org) or Zalaz in Montenegro (www.zalaz.me).
Pharaoh's curse
British aristocrat Lord Carnarvon, who funded the expedition to find the Tutankhamun tomb, died in a Cairo hotel four months after the crypt was opened. He had been in poor health for many years after a car crash, and a mosquito bite made worse by a shaving cut led to blood poisoning and pneumonia. Reports at the time said Lord Carnarvon suffered from “pain as the inflammation affected the nasal passages and eyes”. Decades later, scientists contended he had died of aspergillosis after inhaling spores of the fungus aspergillus in the tomb, which can lie dormant for months. The fact several others who entered were also found dead withiin a short time led to the myth of the curse.
