The Syria-Turkey earthquake could have profound implications


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February 12, 2023

Last week’s earthquake that has devastated parts of Syria and Turkey will have domestic, regional and international implications, as it leaves a cataclysmic humanitarian and economic disaster in its wake. What will its impact be on the political future of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, and that of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan? How will it affect the interests of the global and regional powers in Syria? There is plenty to consider.

Let’s first focus on Syria, where the Assad regime is unlikely to be rehabilitated politically as a possible outcome of international and Arab solidarity with the country.

The Europeans will not rush to normalise relations with the Syrian government and the US is likely to block any attempts to bypass sanctions on Damascus. Russia is preoccupied with its conflict with Ukraine and Nato, but given its ties to the regime, it will provide assistance to the extent that it can. Moscow will also aim to balance its interests carefully, given its relations with both Turkey and Iran – two countries with competing interests inside war-torn Syria – particularly as the earthquake has affected large parts of the rebel-held areas in the country’s north-west.

Aleppo, in particular, is suffering from an open wound. This ancient city was already devastated before the earthquake hit, suffering from years of bombardment. It is also situated near the border with Turkey, and Ankara will not take kindly to Iran’s message to Syrians after the earthquake that “we are here, and we are in control”. Aleppo, therefore, could be the seed of a Turkish-Iranian standoff that will only harm the city and its surroundings, and the people who live there.

Turkey and Syria might be compelled to improve their relations because of the disaster. However, the recent push for rapprochement between the leaders of the two countries could now slow down, not only because of their preoccupation with the catastrophe, but also due to the Tehran-Ankara competition during this extremely sensitive time.

Syrian President Bashar Al Assad visits neighbourhoods affected by the earthquake in Aleppo this week. AFP
Syrian President Bashar Al Assad visits neighbourhoods affected by the earthquake in Aleppo this week. AFP
The earthquake could alter the electoral calculus in Turkey

Iran will be forced to factor in the impact of the earthquake on its regional projects, and may now relent. Indeed, the disaster’s regional and geopolitical fallout will force a number of actors to return to the policy drawing board. Syria remains a key part of the Iranian regime’s strategic ambitions, and Tehran is determined to prevent anything that could undermine its control over it.

The US is unlikely to lift sanctions on Damascus on humanitarian grounds, although it has announced easing of restrictions to allow new relief efforts. The US will probably look into mechanisms that complement the work of international relief organisations, including UN agencies, but will not agree to dealing with the regime to deliver aid to the affected regions, whether under government or rebel control.

American politicians are determined to avoid providing any legitimacy to the Assad regime. Their particular focus will be to ensure that Washington does not issue waivers for the Caesar Act, the law enacted by the US Congress targeting individuals and companies providing financing or assistance to the regime as well as the Iranian and Russian entities backing it.

Republicans in Congress are working on a plan to keep aid and relief for Syria away from the regime’s hands, and to bypass a Russian veto in the UN Security Council on opening aid corridors to rebel-held areas. Some Republican legislators believe the UN and other international mechanisms are inadequate, therefore requiring new ones to co-ordinate between US forces in Syria and the Turkish army and to bypass the Syrian government and deliver aid to the affected areas. A sustainable plan is being sought to launch an aid effort immediately without waiting for the approval of the Assad government. Congress is also working to pass additional laws to prevent the regime – and its backers in Iran and Hezbollah – from benefitting from the disaster.

Turkey, meanwhile, is in dire economic straits. With cities and towns devastated, reconstruction will require billions of dollars. This is beyond the millions already being sent as immediate aid. But it comes as the West remains focused on the Ukraine war and the Turkish government’s supposed intransigence on the issue of Finland and Sweden joining Nato.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits a camp in the aftermath of the earthquake in Adiyaman, Turkey, this week. EPA
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits a camp in the aftermath of the earthquake in Adiyaman, Turkey, this week. EPA

In 2022, Ankara opposed Sweden and Finland’s bid to join the alliance, on the grounds that they “host terrorist organisations which act against Turkey”. It also has continued economic ties with Russia. The question now is whether it will consider lifting its veto as it seeks financial assistance from the US and Europe.

The earthquake could paralyse several of Ankara’s projects, from Central Asia and the Caucasus to North Africa. It is likely to impose changes on Mr Erdogan’s ambitious foreign policy agenda and curtail his repeated calls to establish a buffer zone inside Syrian territory.

Where this leaves Moscow’s own ambitions is open to question, too, with the fate of the Russian economy tied, to some extent, to Ankara’s policies towards it.

Finally, the earthquake could alter the electoral calculus in Turkey for a number of reasons, including the fact that Mr Erdogan has until now leveraged foreign policy to try to convince voters of his ambitious programme for the country. If he is forced to focus on the home front, as would understandably be the case, he could lose one of his electoral trump cards in his campaign to secure re-election in May.

Put differently, the earthquake could benefit the opposition in Turkey. A shift in focus from foreign policy to domestic issues presents it with a chance to put together a stronger coalition. The state of emergency imposed in the aftermath of the earthquake might provide electoral fodder to the governing AKP as well as the opposition, as it is a double-edged sword.

It is, of course, still too early to assess all the dimensions of the disaster that has killed close to 30,000 people. For now, the world is watching the tragedy unfold. But even as its attention eventually, and inevitably, shifts to other global crises – both current and impending – the suffering of the survivors in Syria and Turkey will last a long while yet.

Panipat

Director Ashutosh Gowariker

Produced Ashutosh Gowariker, Rohit Shelatkar, Reliance Entertainment

Cast Arjun Kapoor, Sanjay Dutt, Kriti Sanon, Mohnish Behl, Padmini Kolhapure, Zeenat Aman

Rating 3 /stars

Tearful appearance

Chancellor Rachel Reeves set markets on edge as she appeared visibly distraught in parliament on Wednesday. 

Legislative setbacks for the government have blown a new hole in the budgetary calculations at a time when the deficit is stubbornly large and the economy is struggling to grow. 

She appeared with Keir Starmer on Thursday and the pair embraced, but he had failed to give her his backing as she cried a day earlier.

A spokesman said her upset demeanour was due to a personal matter.

UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Company profile

Date started: December 24, 2018

Founders: Omer Gurel, chief executive and co-founder and Edebali Sener, co-founder and chief technology officer

Based: Dubai Media City

Number of employees: 42 (34 in Dubai and a tech team of eight in Ankara, Turkey)

Sector: ConsumerTech and FinTech

Cashflow: Almost $1 million a year

Funding: Series A funding of $2.5m with Series B plans for May 2020

The biog

Name: James Mullan

Nationality: Irish

Family: Wife, Pom; and daughters Kate, 18, and Ciara, 13, who attend Jumeirah English Speaking School (JESS)

Favourite book or author: “That’s a really difficult question. I’m a big fan of Donna Tartt, The Secret History. I’d recommend that, go and have a read of that.”

Dream: “It would be to continue to have fun and to work with really interesting people, which I have been very fortunate to do for a lot of my life. I just enjoy working with very smart, fun people.”

Dubai Bling season three

Cast: Loujain Adada, Zeina Khoury, Farhana Bodi, Ebraheem Al Samadi, Mona Kattan, and couples Safa & Fahad Siddiqui and DJ Bliss & Danya Mohammed 

Rating: 1/5

ELIO

Starring: Yonas Kibreab, Zoe Saldana, Brad Garrett

Directors: Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi, Adrian Molina

Rating: 4/5

LA LIGA FIXTURES

Friday Celta Vigo v Villarreal (midnight kick-off UAE)

Saturday Sevilla v Real Sociedad (4pm), Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao (7.15pm), Granada v Barcelona (9.30pm), Osasuna v Real Madrid (midnight)

Sunday Levante v Eibar (4pm), Cadiz v Alaves (7.15pm), Elche v Getafe (9.30pm), Real Valladolid v Valencia (midnight)

Monday Huesca v Real Betis (midnight)

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UPI facts

More than 2.2 million Indian tourists arrived in UAE in 2023
More than 3.5 million Indians reside in UAE
Indian tourists can make purchases in UAE using rupee accounts in India through QR-code-based UPI real-time payment systems
Indian residents in UAE can use their non-resident NRO and NRE accounts held in Indian banks linked to a UAE mobile number for UPI transactions

Specs

Price, base: Dhs850,000
Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
Transmission: Seven-speed automatic
Power: 591bhp @ 7,500rpm
Torque: 760Nm @ 3,000rpm
Fuel economy, combined: 11.3L / 100km

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UAE currency: the story behind the money in your pockets
Tips to stay safe during hot weather
  • Stay hydrated: Drink plenty of fluids, especially water. Avoid alcohol and caffeine, which can increase dehydration.
  • Seek cool environments: Use air conditioning, fans, or visit community spaces with climate control.
  • Limit outdoor activities: Avoid strenuous activity during peak heat. If outside, seek shade and wear a wide-brimmed hat.
  • Dress appropriately: Wear lightweight, loose and light-coloured clothing to facilitate heat loss.
  • Check on vulnerable people: Regularly check in on elderly neighbours, young children and those with health conditions.
  • Home adaptations: Use blinds or curtains to block sunlight, avoid using ovens or stoves, and ventilate living spaces during cooler hours.
  • Recognise heat illness: Learn the signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke (dizziness, confusion, rapid pulse, nausea), and seek medical attention if symptoms occur.
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FINAL RECKONING

Director: Christopher McQuarrie

Starring: Tom Cruise, Hayley Atwell, Simon Pegg

Rating: 4/5

The specs
  • Engine: 3.9-litre twin-turbo V8
  • Power: 640hp
  • Torque: 760nm
  • On sale: 2026
  • Price: Not announced yet
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Conflict, drought, famine

Estimates of the number of deaths caused by the famine range from 400,000 to 1 million, according to a document prepared for the UK House of Lords in 2024.
It has been claimed that the policies of the Ethiopian government, which took control after deposing Emperor Haile Selassie in a military-led revolution in 1974, contributed to the scale of the famine.
Dr Miriam Bradley, senior lecturer in humanitarian studies at the University of Manchester, has argued that, by the early 1980s, “several government policies combined to cause, rather than prevent, a famine which lasted from 1983 to 1985. Mengistu’s government imposed Stalinist-model agricultural policies involving forced collectivisation and villagisation [relocation of communities into planned villages].
The West became aware of the catastrophe through a series of BBC News reports by journalist Michael Buerk in October 1984 describing a “biblical famine” and containing graphic images of thousands of people, including children, facing starvation.

Band Aid

Bob Geldof, singer with the Irish rock group The Boomtown Rats, formed Band Aid in response to the horrific images shown in the news broadcasts.
With Midge Ure of the band Ultravox, he wrote the hit charity single Do They Know it’s Christmas in December 1984, featuring a string of high-profile musicians.
Following the single’s success, the idea to stage a rock concert evolved.
Live Aid was a series of simultaneous concerts that took place at Wembley Stadium in London, John F Kennedy Stadium in Philadelphia, the US, and at various other venues across the world.
The combined event was broadcast to an estimated worldwide audience of 1.5 billion.

TOUCH RULES

Touch is derived from rugby league. Teams consist of up to 14 players with a maximum of six on the field at any time.

Teams can make as many substitutions as they want during the 40 minute matches.

Similar to rugby league, the attacking team has six attempts - or touches - before possession changes over.

A touch is any contact between the player with the ball and a defender, and must be with minimum force.

After a touch the player performs a “roll-ball” - similar to the play-the-ball in league - stepping over or rolling the ball between the feet.

At the roll-ball, the defenders have to retreat a minimum of five metres.

A touchdown is scored when an attacking player places the ball on or over the score-line.

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Email sent to Uber team from chief executive Dara Khosrowshahi

From: Dara

To: Team@

Date: March 25, 2019 at 11:45pm PT

Subj: Accelerating in the Middle East

Five years ago, Uber launched in the Middle East. It was the start of an incredible journey, with millions of riders and drivers finding new ways to move and work in a dynamic region that’s become so important to Uber. Now Pakistan is one of our fastest-growing markets in the world, women are driving with Uber across Saudi Arabia, and we chose Cairo to launch our first Uber Bus product late last year.

Today we are taking the next step in this journey—well, it’s more like a leap, and a big one: in a few minutes, we’ll announce that we’ve agreed to acquire Careem. Importantly, we intend to operate Careem independently, under the leadership of co-founder and current CEO Mudassir Sheikha. I’ve gotten to know both co-founders, Mudassir and Magnus Olsson, and what they have built is truly extraordinary. They are first-class entrepreneurs who share our platform vision and, like us, have launched a wide range of products—from digital payments to food delivery—to serve consumers.

I expect many of you will ask how we arrived at this structure, meaning allowing Careem to maintain an independent brand and operate separately. After careful consideration, we decided that this framework has the advantage of letting us build new products and try new ideas across not one, but two, strong brands, with strong operators within each. Over time, by integrating parts of our networks, we can operate more efficiently, achieve even lower wait times, expand new products like high-capacity vehicles and payments, and quicken the already remarkable pace of innovation in the region.

This acquisition is subject to regulatory approval in various countries, which we don’t expect before Q1 2020. Until then, nothing changes. And since both companies will continue to largely operate separately after the acquisition, very little will change in either teams’ day-to-day operations post-close. Today’s news is a testament to the incredible business our team has worked so hard to build.

It’s a great day for the Middle East, for the region’s thriving tech sector, for Careem, and for Uber.

Uber on,

Dara

Sarfira

Director: Sudha Kongara Prasad

Starring: Akshay Kumar, Radhika Madan, Paresh Rawal 

Rating: 2/5

Squid Game season two

Director: Hwang Dong-hyuk 

Stars:  Lee Jung-jae, Wi Ha-joon and Lee Byung-hun

Rating: 4.5/5

Gothia Cup 2025

4,872 matches 

1,942 teams

116 pitches

76 nations

26 UAE teams

15 Lebanese teams

2 Kuwaiti teams

The Sand Castle

Director: Matty Brown

Stars: Nadine Labaki, Ziad Bakri, Zain Al Rafeea, Riman Al Rafeea

Rating: 2.5/5

GAC GS8 Specs

Engine: 2.0-litre 4cyl turbo

Power: 248hp at 5,200rpm

Torque: 400Nm at 1,750-4,000rpm

Transmission: 8-speed auto

Fuel consumption: 9.1L/100km

On sale: Now

Price: From Dh149,900

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The specs

AT4 Ultimate, as tested

Engine: 6.2-litre V8

Power: 420hp

Torque: 623Nm

Transmission: 10-speed automatic

Price: From Dh330,800 (Elevation: Dh236,400; AT4: Dh286,800; Denali: Dh345,800)

On sale: Now

Company Profile:

Name: The Protein Bakeshop

Date of start: 2013

Founders: Rashi Chowdhary and Saad Umerani

Based: Dubai

Size, number of employees: 12

Funding/investors:  $400,000 (2018) 

The five new places of worship

Church of South Indian Parish

St Andrew's Church Mussaffah branch

St Andrew's Church Al Ain branch

St John's Baptist Church, Ruwais

Church of the Virgin Mary and St Paul the Apostle, Ruwais

 

Updated: February 12, 2023, 2:00 PM`