The Syria-Turkey earthquake could have profound implications

The brother of a survivor Gokhan Ugurlu, 35, who was pulled out of the rubble in Hatay, Turkey, reacts as a rescuer looks on. Reuters

A woman walks past flattened buildings in a street in Hatay province, Turkey. Reuters

A member of the army stands amid rubble in Kahramanmaras, Turkey. Reuters

A man reacts while sitting outside a tent of a temporary accommodation centre set up on a football pitch in Gaziantep, Turkey. Reuters

Earthquake survivors walk on a street in Hatay, Turkey. Reuters

A White Helmets volunteer holds a rescued cat in the rebel-held town of Jandaris, Syria. Reuters

A Syrian boy, who lost his family in the deadly earthquake, stands amid the rubble of his family home in Jindayris. AFP

Rescuers sit by a bonfire in Hatay, Turkey. AFP

A Turkish soldier walks among destroyed buildings in Hatay. AFP

Relatives of Palestinian doctor Yusuf Darabeh, who died when the earthquake hit Turkey, comfort each other. AP Photo

People stand by a collapsed building in Kahramanmaras, southern Turkey. AP Photo

A child, injured in the earthquake, is treated at hospital in Bab Al Hawah, Syria. AP Photo

Vehicles containing aid from Hashid Shaabi (Popular Mobilization Forces) on the Iraqi side of the Iraq-Syria border. Reuters

Rescuers carry Muhammed Alkanaas, 12, to an ambulance after five days under the rubble in Antakya, Turkey. AP

Romanian firefighters load a Turkey-bound train with emergency aid near Bucharest. AP

Collapsed buildings in Jandaris, Syria. Reuters

Abdulkerim Nano, 67, is rescued after five days under the rubble in in Kahramanmaras, Turkey

A Turkish rescue worker checks a collapsed building in Adiyaman. AP

Rescuers in Adiyaman, Turkey. AP

A resident in front of his collapsed building in the Elbistan district of Kahramanmaras. AFP

Syrian refugees shelter in a public market in the Islahiye district of Gaziantep, Turkey. AP

A family wait for the bodies of their relatives to be recovered in Antakya, Turkey. AP

A woman plays with a sniffer dog in Antakya, Turkey. AP

Collapsed buildings in Antakya, Turkey. AP

A Syrian woman takes care of her nephew Hasan Goayid, eight, in Islahiye district, Gaziantep. AP

A Syrian child in a tent in the Islahiye district. AP

Collapsed buildings in the Elbistan district of Kahramanmaras. AFP

Emirati rescuers sift through the rubble of a collapsed building in the regime-controlled town of Jableh, northwest of the Syrian capital. AFP

Volunteers at the Emirates Red Crescent 'Bridges of Goodness' campaign at the South Hall, Dubai Exhibition Centre at Expo City. Leslie Pableo for The National

Martin Griffiths, UN Under Secretary General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Co-ordinator, in Maras, Turkey. Reuters

Rescuers give water to a dog after a rescue operation in Hatay, southern Turkey. AP

A deadly earthquake struck southern Turkey and northern Syria on February 6. EPA

Fissures from the earthquake have crumpled the highway near Islahiyeh in Southern Turkey. Matt Kynaston / The National

A Kurdish charity's aid convoy enters Syria through the Bab Al Salama crossing with Turkey, in the northern province of Aleppo. AFP

A rescuer with a sniffer dog searches in a destroyed building in Antakya, southern Turkey. AFP

A makeshift camp erected in a stadium in the city of Kahramanmaras, southern Turkey. EPA

A woman mourns Turkish Cypriot victims of the earthquake, during a funeral procession in the Turkish occupied area in north-east coastal city of Famagusta, Cyprus. AP

Rescuers carry survivor Rabia Ofkeli, 27, from the rubble in Hatay, southern Turkey. Reuters

Syrian President Bashar Al Assad visits Aleppo university hospital. Reuters

Members of the Swiss rescue team with a four-month-old girl, Abir, who was pulled out from the rubble in Antakya. AFP

Survivors at a hospital in Kahramanmaras, Turkey. Reuters

Members of the White Helmets during the fifth day of rescue operations in Jandaris, Syria. Reuters

Indonesian Muslims perform a prayer for the victims at Istiqlal grand mosque in Jakarta. EPA

Emergency personnel conduct a rescue operation to save Melda, 16, from beneath the rubble of a collapsed building in Hatay, southern Turkey. AFP

The earthquake caused a railbed overpass to collapse in Nurdagi, Turkey. AFP

A framed picture on the cracked wall of a collapsed building in Kahramanmaras, south-eastern Turkey. EPA

A coastal area of Iskenderun, Turkey, was flooded after the quake. Reuters

A sheet of paper lies among the rubble in Elbistan. AP

Relief supplies destined for earthquake survivors in Turkey, at a warehouse in Schoenefeld, near Berlin, Germany. AP

Rescuers search for survivors in the rubble of collapsed buildings in Kahramanmaras, three days after the earthquake struck. AFP

Rescuers with a child pulled out from under the rubble. Reuters

Rescuers rest on top of rubble as an aircraft drops water over a fire at the port in the quake-stricken town of Iskenderun. Reuters

A rescue worker in Kahramanmaras, three days after a 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck south-east Turkey. AFP

People try to pull out a dog trapped beneath the rubble in Iskenderun, Turkey. Reuters

Lorries carrying humanitarian aid wait at Bab Al Hawa crossing on the Turkey-Syria border. Reuters

Syrians warm up by a fire outside a makeshift tent near the rebel-held town of Jindayris in Syria. AFP

A dam on the Orontes river in Syria's rebel-held Idlib province collapsed after the quake, flooding the neighbourhood. AFP

The sails of the Sydney Opera House lit with a black ribbon in remembrance and mourning of the earthquake victims. Getty

Smoke billows amid an expanse of collapsed and damaged buildings in Kahramanmaras, Turkey. Reuters

Dogs of the German International Search and Rescue team rest between operations in Kirikhan, Turkey. Reuters

White Helmets volunteers rescue a child trapped beneath the rubble in Jandaris, Syria. Reuters

People gather to collect food and humanitarian aid in the Elbistan district of Kahramanmaras, south-east Turkey. EPA

The statue of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, founder of modern Turkey, is surrounded by damaged buildings in Adiyaman province. AP

A plane carrying humanitarian air sent for earthquake survivors lands in Damascus. Mahmoud Rida / The National

Motorway fractured by earthquake causes car crash near Kahramanmaras, Turkey. Matt Kynaston / The National

A tent camp has been set up at a stadium in south-eastern Turkish city of Kahramanmaras to shelter families whose homes were destroyed in the quake. AFP

A displaced Syrian woman rests under a tree in a field on the outskirts of the rebel-held town of Jindayris. AFP

Last week’s earthquake that has devastated parts of Syria and Turkey will have domestic, regional and international implications, as it leaves a cataclysmic humanitarian and economic disaster in its wake. What will its impact be on the political future of Syrian President Bashar Al Assad, and that of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan? How will it affect the interests of the global and regional powers in Syria? There is plenty to consider.

Let’s first focus on Syria, where the Assad regime is unlikely to be rehabilitated politically as a possible outcome of international and Arab solidarity with the country.

The Europeans will not rush to normalise relations with the Syrian government and the US is likely to block any attempts to bypass sanctions on Damascus. Russia is preoccupied with its conflict with Ukraine and Nato, but given its ties to the regime, it will provide assistance to the extent that it can. Moscow will also aim to balance its interests carefully, given its relations with both Turkey and Iran – two countries with competing interests inside war-torn Syria – particularly as the earthquake has affected large parts of the rebel-held areas in the country’s north-west.

Aleppo, in particular, is suffering from an open wound. This ancient city was already devastated before the earthquake hit, suffering from years of bombardment. It is also situated near the border with Turkey, and Ankara will not take kindly to Iran’s message to Syrians after the earthquake that “we are here, and we are in control”. Aleppo, therefore, could be the seed of a Turkish-Iranian standoff that will only harm the city and its surroundings, and the people who live there.

Turkey and Syria might be compelled to improve their relations because of the disaster. However, the recent push for rapprochement between the leaders of the two countries could now slow down, not only because of their preoccupation with the catastrophe, but also due to the Tehran-Ankara competition during this extremely sensitive time.

Syrian President Bashar Al Assad visits neighbourhoods affected by the earthquake in Aleppo this week. AFP

The earthquake could alter the electoral calculus in Turkey

Iran will be forced to factor in the impact of the earthquake on its regional projects, and may now relent. Indeed, the disaster’s regional and geopolitical fallout will force a number of actors to return to the policy drawing board. Syria remains a key part of the Iranian regime’s strategic ambitions, and Tehran is determined to prevent anything that could undermine its control over it.

The US is unlikely to lift sanctions on Damascus on humanitarian grounds, although it has announced easing of restrictions to allow new relief efforts. The US will probably look into mechanisms that complement the work of international relief organisations, including UN agencies, but will not agree to dealing with the regime to deliver aid to the affected regions, whether under government or rebel control.

American politicians are determined to avoid providing any legitimacy to the Assad regime. Their particular focus will be to ensure that Washington does not issue waivers for the Caesar Act, the law enacted by the US Congress targeting individuals and companies providing financing or assistance to the regime as well as the Iranian and Russian entities backing it.

Republicans in Congress are working on a plan to keep aid and relief for Syria away from the regime’s hands, and to bypass a Russian veto in the UN Security Council on opening aid corridors to rebel-held areas. Some Republican legislators believe the UN and other international mechanisms are inadequate, therefore requiring new ones to co-ordinate between US forces in Syria and the Turkish army and to bypass the Syrian government and deliver aid to the affected areas. A sustainable plan is being sought to launch an aid effort immediately without waiting for the approval of the Assad government. Congress is also working to pass additional laws to prevent the regime – and its backers in Iran and Hezbollah – from benefitting from the disaster.

Turkey, meanwhile, is in dire economic straits. With cities and towns devastated, reconstruction will require billions of dollars. This is beyond the millions already being sent as immediate aid. But it comes as the West remains focused on the Ukraine war and the Turkish government’s supposed intransigence on the issue of Finland and Sweden joining Nato.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits a camp in the aftermath of the earthquake in Adiyaman, Turkey, this week. EPA

In 2022, Ankara opposed Sweden and Finland’s bid to join the alliance, on the grounds that they “host terrorist organisations which act against Turkey”. It also has continued economic ties with Russia. The question now is whether it will consider lifting its veto as it seeks financial assistance from the US and Europe.

The earthquake could paralyse several of Ankara’s projects, from Central Asia and the Caucasus to North Africa. It is likely to impose changes on Mr Erdogan’s ambitious foreign policy agenda and curtail his repeated calls to establish a buffer zone inside Syrian territory.

Where this leaves Moscow’s own ambitions is open to question, too, with the fate of the Russian economy tied, to some extent, to Ankara’s policies towards it.

Finally, the earthquake could alter the electoral calculus in Turkey for a number of reasons, including the fact that Mr Erdogan has until now leveraged foreign policy to try to convince voters of his ambitious programme for the country. If he is forced to focus on the home front, as would understandably be the case, he could lose one of his electoral trump cards in his campaign to secure re-election in May.

Put differently, the earthquake could benefit the opposition in Turkey. A shift in focus from foreign policy to domestic issues presents it with a chance to put together a stronger coalition. The state of emergency imposed in the aftermath of the earthquake might provide electoral fodder to the governing AKP as well as the opposition, as it is a double-edged sword.

It is, of course, still too early to assess all the dimensions of the disaster that has killed close to 30,000 people. For now, the world is watching the tragedy unfold. But even as its attention eventually, and inevitably, shifts to other global crises – both current and impending – the suffering of the survivors in Syria and Turkey will last a long while yet.