Last week, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga completed 100 days in office. He will hope for hundreds more to follow. But if the proverbial hot seat he currently occupies gets any hotter, it may not be long before he is forced to vacate and make way for someone else.
As of last week, Mr Suga's approval rating – or more precisely, that of his cabinet – has sunk to about 40 per cent. The precipitous fall, from a little over 55 per cent polled just last month, has raised two questions. First, will Mr Suga survive the next year in office? And second, how is it that a politician of Mr Suga's experience and guile is facing such strong political headwinds just three months after being unanimously elected by his party to replace Shinzo Abe?
Mr Suga’s premiership isn't currently in any mortal danger, but his staying power will depend on how quickly he can put out two fires, neither of which is entirely of his own making: a botched coronavirus pandemic strategy and a funding scandal involving the prime minister’s office.
Shinzo Abe bows after stepping down as Japan's Prime Minister in Tokyo. Reuters
Japan's longest-serving prime minister said Friday he intends to step down because of health problems. AP Photo
It's not the first time Shinzo Abe has left office. He stepped down as Japanese Prime Minister on September 12, 2007 after just a year. EPA
He reassumed office on December 26, 2012. This file photo taken on December 29, 2012 shows Mr Abe greeting workers at the Tokyo Electric Power Company's (TEPCO) emergency operation centre inside the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Ota. AFP
This file photo taken on September 17, 2014 shows Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe driving a combine harvester to crop rice plants in the town of Hirono in Fukushima prefecture. AFP
Pope Francis and Shinzo Abe in 2019. AFP
Then-South Korean President Roh Moo-Hyun, right, shaking hands with Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (L) during their meeting at the presidential Blue House in Seoul in 2006. AFP
With Taro Aso, as deputy PM and finance minister, second left, Mr Abe has instilled "Abenomics" to nourish the country's slowing rate growth with an ageing population. EPA
This file photo taken on October 18, 2017 shows Japan's Prime Minister and ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) president Shinzo Abe (L) greeting his supporters during an election campaign appearance in Saitama. AFP
This file photo taken on September 20, 2018 shows Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attending a press conference after winning the ruling liberal Democratic Party’s (LDP) leadership election at the party’s headquarters in Tokyo. AFP
Russian President Vladimir Putin chats with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe during a visit to the Kodokan judo hall in Tokyo in 2016. AFP
This file photo taken on August 15, 2005 shows Shinzo Abe (C), then-deputy secretary general for Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), following a Shinto priest after offering prayers for the country's war dead at Tokyo's controversial Yasukuni Shrine. AFP
This file photo taken on September 17, 2002 shows Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, accompanied by then-Vice Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe as he leaves Tokyo International Airport for Pyongyang to meet with then-North Korean leader Kim Jong Il. AFP
This file photo taken on August 15, 2007 shows Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (R) bowing at the alter as Emperor Akihito (L) and Empress Michiko (C) look on during a memorial ceremony for the national war dead to commemorate the end of World War II. AFP
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe smiles in 2013. EPA
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, second right, wearing protective suit and mask, is briefed about tanks containing radioactive water by Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant chief Akira Ono after the nuclear disaster. REUTERS
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrives at a debate with party leaders at Japan National Press Club in Tokyo, Japan, 03 July 2013. EPA
This file photo taken on March 6, 2020 shows Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe gesturing as he attends a upper house plenary session at parliament in Tokyo. AFP
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe poses with child actors, members of Japanese idol group Momoiro Clover Z at a cherry blossom viewing party at Shinjuku Gyoen park in Tokyo, Japan. REUTERS
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe pours sake for US President Barack Obama as they have dinner at the Sukiyabashi Jiro sushi restaurant in Tokyo. Reuters
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shakes hands with his supporters after an election campaign rally in Fukushima in 2017. Reuters
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe eats a local grilled fish at the Soma Haragama fishing port in Soma, Fukushima prefecture, December 2, 2014. Reuters
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe shakes hands with US President Donald Trump during their meeting in the Oval Office on February 10, 2017. Reuters
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, left, and President George W Bush, right, attend a joint news conference at Camp David in 2006. AP Photo
Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reaches out to shake hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a welcome ceremony for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Economic Leaders Meeting in Beijing in 2014. AP Photo
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe appears as the Nintendo game character Super Mario during the closing ceremony at the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. AP Photo
Leading during the Covid-19 pandemic has proved arduous and politically risky for heads of governments across the globe. A once-in-a-century health crisis, which has led to one of the deepest global economic contractions in decades, has already cost a number of world leaders their jobs.
One of them is Donald Trump, the outgoing US president on whose watch more than 330,000 Americans have died. Accusations of Mr Trump's seeming lack of conviction to deal with the outbreak were a contributor to his defeat to Joe Biden in the November general election.
The other leader is Mr Suga's predecessor, Shinzo Abe. Despite serving for a record, uninterrupted seven-and-a-half years, Mr Abe seemed out of his depth in handling the pandemic. His country is much better off than the US in handling the crisis but, amid confusion over whether to prioritise the health crisis or the economic downturn, he was ineffectual in tackling both challenges. Mr Abe resigned in September, citing a personal health issue, but the reality is his disapproval rating had made it untenable for him to stay in power.
Mr Suga’s struggles with the pandemic are similar.
In his previous job as Mr Abe’s right-hand man, he helped unveil the "Go to Travel" campaign, a subsidy programme to encourage domestic travel and tourism as a means to boost the economy. Although it was a good concept, it attracted mostly the retired elderly, who have more time on their hands and a willingness to dip into their life savings. The irony, however, is that it is the retired elderly who have been asked to stay home during the pandemic.
As Prime Minister, Mr Suga continued to promote the campaign while at the same time butting heads with governors of Japan's prefectures over the need to suspend it in parts of the country deemed as coronavirus hotspots. Following a spike in cases across the country, which "Go to Travel" arguably made worse, Mr Suga last week called for the nationwide suspension of the programme between December 28 and January 11. And yet, to the befuddlement of healthcare authorities, he has defied their calls for a national state of emergency.
While Mr Suga’s experience has not paid dividends for him thus far, his years spent in government have come with unwanted baggage.
Last week, Mr Abe faced legal enquiries over unreported political funds, allegedly used to cover dining expenses for his constituents from the Yamaguchi prefecture. Prosecutors allege that upwards of 23 million yen ($223,000) was spent so that these constituents could attend the government's annual cherry blossom-viewing parties in Tokyo between 2015 and 2019. It is a negligible amount of money in the grand scheme of things, but failing to list the expenditure is against the nation's political funding laws.
In the eyes of the opposition, Mr Suga, who was previously Mr Abe's chief cabinet secretary, has been tainted by his long association with Mr Abe and is often reminded of his own very public denial of the funding allegation when it surfaced last year. His presence at dinner parties with celebrities and politicians recently, thereby flouting his own government’s Covid-19 guidelines, caused a great furore, after which he was forced to issue an apology.
Shoppers walk through streets during the year-end shopping in preparation for the New Year in Tokyo. The Covid-19 infection cases in Japan topped 200,000 last week. EPA
Mr Suga is also facing heat over his rejection of six nominees to the Science Council of Japan, a government advisory. A petition criticising his decision has been signed by 140,000 influential members of civil society who claim that the nominees were rejected because they were critics of the government.
None of these controversies are serious enough to bring down Mr Suga’s premiership. Similar allegations have failed to bring down previous governments in Tokyo.
What could hurt Mr Suga, however, is the economic fall-out of the pandemic. Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 3.1 per cent in October, its highest level in three years, and people are worried about their future. Combined with the enduring quality of the funding scandal, further economic contraction could greatly undermine Mr Suga’s power in the hyper-competitive playing field of Japanese politics.
People wait at an electronic stock board of a securities firm in Tokyo last week. Shares started the week out on a sour note in Asia as worsening coronavirus outbreaks overshadowed news that US lawmakers finally have a deal on more support for American families and businesses. AP Photo
What could hurt Yoshihide Suga is the economic fall-out of the pandemic
Still, better days could be in store for the country – and possibly for its Prime Minister. The government has signed agreements with four vaccine manufacturers and secured enough doses for the entire population. It has also prepared a detailed timeline, aiming to inoculate all its citizens by the end of June.
The bad news is Japan has one of the lowest levels of vaccine confidence, and a recent poll by public broadcaster NHK reported that up to 36 per cent of the population is unwilling to take the Covid-19 vaccine. The good news is that past experience shows that the Japanese are open to persuasion, particularly if they believe it serves the larger interests of the country. Therein lies an opportunity for Mr Suga.
To get the public on his side, he will need to work on his messaging, which won't be easy. As I previously wrote in these pages, Mr Suga is more backroom dealer than mass leader. But in a time of crisis, he will need to show leadership and be a more effective communicator. It will go a long way in shaping his country's destiny and his own legacy.
If he succeeds, he will have lifted a nation the way Mr Abe did following the 2011 tsunami and Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant tragedies. If he fails, he will end up being little more than a placeholder prime minister until the parliamentary election in October – and one in a long list of Japanese premiers who could not hold onto power for more than a year.
Chitrabhanu Kadalayil is an assistant comment editor at The National
BMW M5 specs
Engine: 4.4-litre twin-turbo V-8 petrol enging with additional electric motor
Mercer, the investment consulting arm of US services company Marsh & McLennan, expects its wealth division to at least double its assets under management (AUM) in the Middle East as wealth in the region continues to grow despite economic headwinds, a company official said.
Mercer Wealth, which globally has $160 billion in AUM, plans to boost its AUM in the region to $2-$3bn in the next 2-3 years from the present $1bn, said Yasir AbuShaban, a Dubai-based principal with Mercer Wealth.
“Within the next two to three years, we are looking at reaching $2 to $3 billion as a conservative estimate and we do see an opportunity to do so,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Mercer does not directly make investments, but allocates clients’ money they have discretion to, to professional asset managers. They also provide advice to clients.
“We have buying power. We can negotiate on their (client’s) behalf with asset managers to provide them lower fees than they otherwise would have to get on their own,” he added.
Mercer Wealth’s clients include sovereign wealth funds, family offices, and insurance companies among others.
From its office in Dubai, Mercer also looks after Africa, India and Turkey, where they also see opportunity for growth.
Wealth creation in Middle East and Africa (MEA) grew 8.5 per cent to $8.1 trillion last year from $7.5tn in 2015, higher than last year’s global average of 6 per cent and the second-highest growth in a region after Asia-Pacific which grew 9.9 per cent, according to consultancy Boston Consulting Group (BCG). In the region, where wealth grew just 1.9 per cent in 2015 compared with 2014, a pickup in oil prices has helped in wealth generation.
BCG is forecasting MEA wealth will rise to $12tn by 2021, growing at an annual average of 8 per cent.
Drivers of wealth generation in the region will be split evenly between new wealth creation and growth of performance of existing assets, according to BCG.
Another general trend in the region is clients’ looking for a comprehensive approach to investing, according to Mr AbuShaban.
“Institutional investors or some of the families are seeing a slowdown in the available capital they have to invest and in that sense they are looking at optimizing the way they manage their portfolios and making sure they are not investing haphazardly and different parts of their investment are working together,” said Mr AbuShaban.
Some clients also have a higher appetite for risk, given the low interest-rate environment that does not provide enough yield for some institutional investors. These clients are keen to invest in illiquid assets, such as private equity and infrastructure.
“What we have seen is a desire for higher returns in what has been a low-return environment specifically in various fixed income or bonds,” he said.
“In this environment, we have seen a de facto increase in the risk that clients are taking in things like illiquid investments, private equity investments, infrastructure and private debt, those kind of investments were higher illiquidity results in incrementally higher returns.”
The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, one of the largest sovereign wealth funds, said in its 2016 report that has gradually increased its exposure in direct private equity and private credit transactions, mainly in Asian markets and especially in China and India. The authority’s private equity department focused on structured equities owing to “their defensive characteristics.”
Syria v Australia
2018 World Cup qualifying: Asia fourth round play-off first leg
Venue: Hang Jebat Stadium (Malacca, Malayisa)
Kick-off: Thursday, 4.30pm (UAE)
Watch: beIN Sports HD
* Second leg in Australia scheduled for October 10
Sector/About: Entrupy is a hardware-enabled SaaS company whose mission is to protect businesses, borders and consumers from transactions involving counterfeit goods.
Initial investment/Investors: Entrupy secured a $2.6m Series A funding round in 2017. The round was led by Tokyo-based Digital Garage and Daiwa Securities Group's jointly established venture arm, DG Lab Fund I Investment Limited Partnership, along with Zach Coelius.
Total customers: Entrupy’s customers include hundreds of secondary resellers, marketplaces and other retail organisations around the world. They are also testing with shipping companies as well as customs agencies to stop fake items from reaching the market in the first place.
What is tokenisation?
Tokenisation refers to the issuance of a blockchain token, which represents a virtually tradable real, tangible asset. A tokenised asset is easily transferable, offers good liquidity, returns and is easily traded on the secondary markets.
